Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ON THE DANUBE AND THE PLATTE1

ABSTRACT: Two case studies highlighting the institutional arrangements and decision-making processes used to attempt to allocate water on large scale river systems in two countries are presented. In both cases the implementation of river plans has been blocked by conflicts between those who wish to use water for irrigation, hydropower, or municipal purposes and those who wish to maintain instream flows for fish and wildlife. To date conflict has blocked the implementation of a large hydropower scheme on the Danube River, downstream from Vienna, Austria, and the construction of municipal and agricultural projects, as well as the relicensing of an existing hydropower facility on the Platte River in Nebraska. Analysis of the decision-making processes and institutional settings of both cases led to the identification of problem areas and development of recommendations that would support the achievement of compromise solutions for management.     

Morphologie effects of channelization: the case of the Neebing-McIntyre floodway,Thunder Bay,Ontario, Canada

The Neebing-McIntyre floodway in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, has been constructed with a relatively straight and uniform trapezoidal channel, compared with the prechannelized sinuous reaches of the Neebing and the McIntyre rivers. The flow regime of the floodway also contrasts significantly with the prechannelized regime, because of the combination of discharges from these rivers into a new channel and the regulation of flows by a diversion structure. The maximum channel capacity of the floodway is about 284 m³ s^–1 (175-year regional flood), compared with about 40 m³ s^–1 and 60 m³ s^–1, respectively, for the Neebing and the McIntyre. According to regime theories, the construction of a straight and trapezoidal channel has upset the equilibrium of the stream system and therefore should lead to some accelerated erosion and sedimentation processes in the new channel immediately after construction. Erosion potential is particularly high during higher discharge events, when flow velocities are expected to be greater than the prechannelized velocities of the Neebing and the McIntyre. The overall sediment yield of the watershed is low (71t km^–2 yr^–1), compared with other documented watersheds of North America, but the rates of deposition in the floodway are relatively high, mainly due to the backwater effect of Lake Superior. Unless maintained by constant channel work, the floodway will tend to fill up with sediment, until a postconstructional equilibrium is reestablished.     

MULTICRITERION ANALYSIS OF FOREST WATERSHED MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of alternative forest watershed management practices are examined from a multicriterion viewpoint in order to select the most satisfactory management scheme. The selection process is carried out using two types of multicriterion decision making techniques: the outranking types of ELECTRE I and II, and the distance-based type of compromise programming (CP). The process is illustrated using the U.S. Forest Service Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed in the Salt-Verde River Basin of Arizona as an example. The desired objectives of the experimental study and the alternative forest watershed resources management schemes are transformed into an evaluation matrix of alternatives versus criteria array. Analyses of the matrix using the aforementioned techniques result in a complete preference ordering of the feasible alternatives in the cases of ELECTRE LI and CP and a partial ordering when ELECTRE I is used. In addition, some sensitivity analyses have been performed and showed ELECTRE II and CP to be fairly robust with respect to parameter changes, while ELECTRE I being highly sensitive to changes in threshold levels. Overall the three techniques pointed out that 65 percent vegetation cut is the best management scheme, while the next best is shown to be 50 percent vegetation cut.     

切实做好全厂停工检修中的环保工作

为确保炼油厂设备安全而稳定地运行，各生产装置都要定期进行停工检修，在此期间排放的污染物对环境将产生一定的影响。停工检修中的环保工作包括实施环保措施；加强环境管理；并且将2000m~3隔油池由一间式变为两间式，提高污水处理率和达标率。     

MEASURED AND PREDICTED VELOCITY AND LONGITUDINAL DISPERSION AT STEAI)Y AND UNSTEADY FLOW,COLORADO RIVER,GLEN CANYON DAM TO LAKE MEAD1

ABSTRACT: The effect of unsteadiness of dam releases on velocity and longitudinal dispersion of flow was evaluated by injecting a fluorescent dye into the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam and sampling for dye concentration at selected sites downstream. Measurements of a 26-kilometer reach of Glen Canyon, just below Glen Canyon Dam, were made at nearly steady dam releases of 139, 425, and 651 cubic meters per second. Measurements of a 380-kilometer reach of Grand Canyon were made at steady releases of 425 cubic meters per second and at unsteady releases with a daily mean of about 425 cubic meters per second. In Glen Canyon, average flow velocity through the study reach increased directly with discharge, but dispersion was greatest at the lowest of the three flows measured. In Grand Canyon, average flow velocity varied slightly from subreach to subreach at both steady and unsteady flow but was not significantly different at steady and unsteady flow over the entire study reach. Also, longitudinal dispersion was not significantly different during steady and unsteady flow. Long tails on the time-concentration curves at a site, characteristic of most rivers but not predicted by the one-dimensional theory, were not found in this study. Absence of tails on the curves shows that, at the measured flows, the eddies that are characteristic of the Grand Canyon reach do not trap water for a significant length of time. Data from the measurements were used to calibrate a one-dimensional flow model and a solute-transport model. The combined set of calibrated flow and solute-transport models was then used to predict velocity and dispersion at potential dam-release patterns.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

COST EFFECTIVE ARSENIC REDUCTIONS IN PRIVATE WELL WATER IN MAINE1

ABSTRACT: This study was undertaken to investigate the cost effectiveness of selected arsenic avoidance methods. Annual costs of reverse osmosis (RO), activated alumina (AA), bottled water, and rented and purchased water coolers for various household sizes in Maine were compared. Relative ranking of systems shows that RO ($411 annually) is the most cost effective, followed by AA ($518) and one‐gallon jugs of water ($321 to $1,285), respectively, for households larger than one person. One‐gallon jugs ($321) followed by 2.5‐gallon jugs ($358) of water were found to be the most cost effective for households of one person or for households with arsenic III concentrations of 0.02 to 0.06 mg/L and arsenic V concentrations of 0.08 to 1.0 mg/L. Point‐of‐entry systems and water coolers were not found to be cost effective under any of the study's conditions. The research reported here will help states make more definitive treatment recommendations to households regarding the cost effectiveness of alternative treatment systems to reduce arsenic concentrations below 0.01 mg/L. While arsenic removal technologies are improving, which enhances removal rates and reduces costs, the major insights from this analysis appear to be reinforced by technological improvements.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT PLATTE RIVER SPECIES RECOVERY EFFORTS1

ABSTRACT: Efforts are under way to recover habitat for several threatened and endangered species in and along the Platte River in central Nebraska. A proposed recovery program for these species requires a means of characterizing “wet” versus “normal” versus “dry” hydrologic conditions in order to set corresponding Platte River instream flow targets. Methods of characterizing hydrologic conditions in real time were investigated for this purpose. Initially, 10 watershed variables were identified as potentially valuable indicators of hydrologic conditions. Ultimately, six multiple linear regression equations were developed for six periods of the year using a subset of these variables expressed as frequencies of nonexceedence. The adequacy of these equations for characterizing conditions was assessed by evaluating their historic correlation to subsequent flow in the central Platte River (1947–1994). These equations explained 54 to 82 percent of variability in the observed flow exceedences in the validation datasets, depending upon the period of year evaluated. These equations will provide initial criteria for setting applicable flow targets to determine, in real time, whether water regulation projects associated with the species recovery effort can divert or store flows without conflicting with recovery objectives.