1992年世界重要地震灾情及地震活动特征

1992年全世界重要灾情地震62条(其中中国34条),占全世界本年度5级以上地震总数的11％;因地震而死亡者3805人,受伤者约9860人。造成房屋破坏6～7万间。直接经济损失粗略估算国外17.5亿美元,国内1～2亿元人民币。1992年全世界7级以上大震20次,是1976年以来最高值。中国境内虽没有7级以上地震,但估计中国大陆震情呈增强趋势。     

推进地震保险 增强震灾经济补偿能力

摘要地震是一种对人类生存威胁极大的自然灾害,长期以来人类一直在探寻抗御地震灾害的有效途径。无疑,对地震造成的损失予以及时、充分的经济补偿,不失为一项重要的对策,其中,推进地震保险,通过社会经济杠杆原理,可以实现这种经济补偿。本文就推进地震保险的必要性、可行性及其实施方法和步骤,论述了作者的认识。作者认为,推进并普及地震保险,是目前增强社会防震减灾和实现自救、互救能力的最有效方法。但实现地震保险,需要政府的支持、社会的广泛参与和地震部门的密切配合。     

The role of people and human factors in performing process hazard analysis and layers of protection analysis

Process hazard analysis (PHA) and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) studies address human failures in operating and maintaining processes and the human factors that influence them, amongst other types of failures. People perform PHA and LOPA studies and, therefore, such studies themselves are subject to various possible human failures. Much less attention has been paid to the human factors that influence the performance of PHA and LOPA studies than human factors that influence hazard scenarios. Human failures in the performance of PHA and LOPA studies should be of significant concern to practitioners as such studies are difficult and time-consuming activities that place significant demands on participants, which increases the chance that errors will be made. Human factors such as willingness to rely on the unsubstantiated opinions of others, groupthink, underestimation of the frequencies of low-probability, high-consequence events, and allowing a false sense of accomplishment to distract from implementing study results must be recognized and addressed.This paper identifies and discusses various human factor issues that can influence the quality of PHA and LOPA studies covering preparing for, conducting, recording, documenting, and following-up on studies. Guidelines are provided to help minimize the extent to which these human factor issues may impair study quality.     

安全评价工作若干问题探讨

指出目前安全评价中范围确定、评价单元划分、评价方法选用、对策建议制定、重大危险源辨识工作容易出现的问题及误区,对相关问题产生的原因及带来的影响进行分析与探讨,阐明范围确定、评价单元划分、评价方法选用、对策建议制定、重大危险源辨识工作相关原则与方法,可以避免安全评价工作中出现重大失误,影响安全评价工作的客观性与质量,以期共同提高安全评价工作的质量。     

Function Zoning of the Major function Development-optimized County: A Case in Shangyu,Zhejiang

Abstract

The 11th Five Year Plan has divided national functional zones in the basic unit of county-level administrative region. After implementation of national Major Function-oriented Zones (MFOZ) at prefecture and county levels, the spatial development sequence must be specified, development intensity must be limited, oriented zones must be designated and “red line” areas of spatial governance must be defined. In view of the above, choosing a typical county area and exploring its functional zoning after orienting its major functions will supply reference for carrying out the national spatial planning in the 12th Five Year Period, and it will also provide experience for the study of function regionalization which is the theme of MFOZ in the present academic circles. In this paper, the authors take Shangyu County as an example to study the general principles, train of thought of county-level functional regionalization in development-optimized areas, and to explore its reasonable functional zoning plan. Consequently, the authors present five principles and suggest a function-oriented zoning plan with 2 levels and 4 types.     

车用CNG气瓶安装和使用安全问题分析及对策

近年来,CNG汽车发展很快,根据国家有关法规和标准的要求,结合CNG气瓶工作实际需要,对车用CNG气瓶的安装许可、安装监督检验、定期检验周期、使用管理中存在的问题,进行分析研究。本文认为应加强气瓶安装资质管理,监督检验应包括气瓶和燃气系统。现行国家标准对钢质内胆纤维缠绕气瓶和全钢瓶的要求不一致,应及时完善,出租车用气瓶检验周期应与其他车辆不同。提出气瓶安装中要注意的几个技术问题,包括气瓶数量和布置、气瓶固定方式、非燃气系统检查等。为保证CNG汽车安全使用,指出气瓶安装行政许可、车辆检验和气瓶检验、车辆保险和气瓶保险等需要解决的问题。     

The sense of snow – Individuals’ perception of fatal avalanche events

This empirical paper aims at examining individuals’ risk perception in the context of an environmental disaster. Risk is defined as probability of dying in a snow avalanche. Risk perception is analyzed from two different perspectives: (i) individuals’ estimate of the average avalanche risk and (ii) the perceived personal avalanche risk. The perception of personal risk is summarized in an ordered categorical variable, average risk perception is captured by a measurement previously used in risk communication that results in a continuous variable. The variation in risk perception observed is examined by using individual leisure activities (skiing) and the timing of the survey (fall vs. winter) as proxies for frequency, familiarity, controllability, voluntariness, and beneficiary of risk exposure and by including several individual specific characteristics such as age, gender, education, income. The results show that risk as well as individual specific characteristics are significant determinants of participants’ perception of risk but their relevance differs depending on whether the focus is on perception of average risk or of personal risk.     

海上溢油污染的危害与防治措施

分析海上溢油对环境的危害,从预防泄漏的措施、泄漏响应计划、演练和管理、溢油的清除、环境监测与恢复等方面提出了防治污染的措施.     

NEWS

Abstract

In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future trend of flood calamities in the study area. Our findings indicate that overall the high-frequent flood disasters with middle to lower damage prevail at present. A series of dramatic flood waves will appear in the years of 2016, 2022, 2030 and 2042, particularly a destructive flood will occur between 2041 and 2045 in the Lower Jingjiang reaches. Typical of sensitive response to flood hazards in close association with its special geographical location, the lower Jingjiang segment hereby can reflect the development trend of floods in the middle Yangtze reaches. According to the results, a good fitness was revealed between the prediction and practical values. This actually hints that the topological grey method is an effective mathematical means of resolving problems containing uncertainty and indetermination, thus providing valuable information for the flood prediction in the middle Yangtze catchment.