Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

Numerical simulation of water curtain application for ammonia release dispersion

Using water curtain system to forced mitigate ammonia vapor cloud has been proven to be an effective measure. Currently, no engineering guidelines for designing an effective water curtain system are available, due to lack of understanding of complex interactions between ammonia vapor cloud and water droplets, especially the understanding of ammonia absorption into water droplets. This paper presents numerical calculations to reproduce the continuous ammonia release dispersion with and without the mitigating influence of a downwind water curtain using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent 14.0. The turbulence models k–ɛ and RNG were used to simulate the ammonia cloud dispersion without downwind water curtain. The simulated results were compared with literature using the statistical performance indicators. The RNG model represents better agreement with the experimental data and the k–ɛ model generates a slightly lesser result. The RNG model coupled with Lagrangian discrete phase model (DPM) was used to simulate the dilution effectiveness of the water curtain system. The ammonia absorption was taken into account by means of user-defined functions (UDF). The simulated effectiveness of water curtains has good agreements with the experimental results. The effectiveness of water mitigation system with and without the ammonia absorption was compared. The results display that the effectiveness mainly depends on the strong air entrainment enhanced by water droplets movement and the ammonia absorption also enhances the effectiveness of water curtain mitigation system. The study indicates that the CFD code can be satisfactorily applied in design criteria for an effective mitigation system.     

Estimating Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis migration using a mass balance model expressed by hydrological distribution parameters in a major limpid river basin in Japan

We examined the influence of several hydrological and meteorological parameters on the migratory movements of ayu Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in central Japan. When comprehensively evaluating rivers and ayu behaviour on a catchment scale, the subjects of analysis typically include human activities and hydrological and meteorological phenomena. However, limiting analyses to such factors may be too restrictive when human activities are being conducted. Accordingly, we incorporated a biological viewpoint into the evaluation method, analysing hydrological data (river discharge, river water temperature, sea water temperature) to determine watershed characteristics and examining the relationship between these characteristics and the habitat conditions of ayu. Then we constructed a numerical model for ayu migratory runs that incorporated ayu ecology and watershed characteristics. Analyses of ayu movements from a lower estuarine dam demonstrated that downstream displacements were associated with high water flows of more than 200 m³ s⁻¹ at the beginning of summer. We conclude that it is important to consider the effects of environmental parameters on the movements of different fish species to understand the causes of spatial variation in fish distribution in lowland rivers.     

Testing hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves

Niche theory with hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves is used in the studies of resource sharing of competing plant species. Predictions based on theory should be applicable when, e.g., effects of competing species on the ecological tolerances are assessed or species’ diversity along a resource gradient is evaluated. We studied the ecological response curves of competing plant species along a resource gradient in boreal forests. The study was based on nation-wide soil and vegetation data collected from 455 sample plots on boreal forests in Finland. Species response curves along a soil fertility gradient (in terms of C/N ratio) were estimated using generalized additive models. Distribution of species optima and the relationship of niche width and skewness to the location of the optimum were analyzed with new bootstrap tests. The developed tests can account for the effects of truncation observed in the response curves of several species and for the uneven distribution of observations on the gradient.The estimated response curves of the major field layer species of boreal forests were not evenly distributed along soil C/N gradient. The density of optima peaked with relatively high nitrogen availability. Species with optima at low nitrogen availability had relatively broad realized niches. Niche width was negatively correlated with the density of optima. Species optima were packed and niches were narrow at high resource levels. This result suggests that a greater number of more specialized species can occur and interspecific competition decreases niche widths at high resource levels. Species were packed in the gradient where the C/N ratio was lower than 25, i.e., in conditions where nitrification can take place. This indicates that the majority of the vascular plants of boreal forests are favoured by the availability of NO₃⁻. Those few species thriving at high C/N ratios have broader realized niches.     

A database for integrated assessment of European agricultural systems

A major bottleneck for data-based policy making is that data sources are collected, managed, and distributed by different institutions, residing in different locations, resulting in conceptual and practical problems. The use of dispersed data for agricultural systems research requires the integration of data sources, which means to ensure consistency in data interpretations, units, spatial and temporal scales, to respect legal regulations of privacy, ownership and copyright, and to enable easy dissemination of data. This paper describes the SEAMLESS integrated database on European agricultural systems. It contains data on cropping patterns, production, farm structural data, soil and climate conditions, current agricultural management and policy information. To arrive at one integrated database, a shared ontology was developed according to a collaborative process, which facilitates interdisciplinary research. The paper details this process, which can be re-used in other research projects for integrating data sources.     

基于物元模型的煤自燃危险性分析

为探索判断煤自燃的危险性新方法,在煤低温氧化试验的基础上,基于可拓理论构建了煤自燃危险性熵权和经验权的物元综合分析模型。采用该方法对4个不同煤样低温氧化试验数据进行自燃危险性分析,得出各煤样自燃危险性的等级及差异程度,并提出相应的防范对策。结果表明:4号煤样比其他煤样更具自燃危险性,需要重点防范。该方法的预测结果与实际情况相吻合。     

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Processof Agricultural Sustainable Development

To promote modern agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modern agriculture in China.This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level,and chooses rural labor,per capita income of rural residents,rural investment,proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables,and total power of machine as induced variable.The major results show that the relativity of modern agricultural equipment level,rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable,and they are the major influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level.Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and development and promotion of advanced and applicable modern agricultural equipment,improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China’s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development.     

Effects of Exurban Development and Temperature on Bird Species in the Southern Appalachians

Land‐use dynamics and climatic gradients have large effects on many terrestrial systems. Exurban development, one of the fastest growing forms of land use in the United States, may affect wildlife through habitat fragmentation and building presence may alter habitat quality. We studied the effects of residential development and temperature gradients on bird species occurrence at 140 study sites in the southern Appalachian Mountains (North Carolina, U.S.A.) that varied with respect to building density and elevation. We used occupancy models to determine 36 bird species’ associations with building density, forest canopy cover, average daily mean temperature, and an interaction between building density and mean temperature. Responses varied with habitat requirement, breeding range, and migration distance. Building density and mean temperature were both included in the top occupancy models for 19 of 36 species and a building density by temperature interaction was included in models for 8 bird species. As exurban development expands in the southern Appalachians, interior forest species and Neotropical migrants are likely to decline, but shrubland or edge species are not likely to benefit. Overall, effects of building density were greater than those of forest canopy cover. Exurban development had a greater effect on birds at high elevations due to a greater abundance of sensitive forest‐interior species and Neotropical migrants. A warming climate may exacerbate these negative effects. Efectos del Desarrollo Exurbano y de la Temperatura sobre Especies de Aves en las Apalaches del Sur     

Life History as a Predictor of Salamander Recovery Rate from Timber Harvest in Southern Appalachian Forests,U.S.A

Forest management often represents a balance between social, economic, and ecological objectives. In the eastern United States, numerous studies have established that terrestrial salamander populations initially decline in abundance following timber harvest, yet the large‐scale and long‐term consequences are relatively unknown. We used count data from terrestrial survey points to examine the relation between salamander abundance and historic timber harvest while accounting for imperfect detection of individuals. Overall, stream‐ and terrestrial‐breeding salamanders appeared to differ by magnitude of population decline, rate of population recovery, and extent of recolonization from surrounding forest. Specifically, estimated abundance of both species groups was positively associated with stand age and recovery rates were predicted to increase over time for red‐legged salamanders (Plethodon shermani) and decrease in stream‐breeding species. Abundance of stream‐breeding salamanders was predicted to reach a peak by 100 years after timber harvest, and the population growth rate of red‐legged salamanders was predicted to undergo a significant increase 100 years after harvest. Estimated abundance of stream‐breeding salamanders in young forest stands was also negatively associated with the distance to adjacent forest, a result that suggests immigration has a role in the recovery of these species. Our results indicate that salamander abundance in young forest stands may be only modestly lower than in more mature forest but that full recovery from timber harvest may take a substantial amount of time and that species life history may affect patterns of recovery. Historia de Vida como un Vaticinador de la Tasa de Recuperación de una Salamandra a la Colecta de Madera en los Bosques del Sur de los Apalaches, E.U.A     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Translocation Options for a Threatened Waterbird

Abstract: Reintroduction of captive‐reared animals has become increasingly popular in recent decades as a conservation technique, but little is known of how demographic factors affect the success of reintroductions. We believe whether the increase in population persistence associated with reintroduction is sufficient to warrant the cost of rearing and relocating individuals should be considered as well. We examined the trade‐off between population persistence and financial cost of a reintroduction program for Crested Coots (Fulica cristata). This species was nearly extirpated from southern Europe due to unsustainable levels of hunting and reduction in amount and quality of habitat. We used a stochastic, stage‐based, single‐sex, metapopulation model with site‐specific parameters to examine the demographic effects of releasing juveniles or adults in each population for a range of durations. We parameterized the model with data from an unsuccessful reintroduction program in which juvenile captive‐bred Crested Coots were released between 2000 and 2009. Using economic data from the captive‐breeding program, we also determined whether the strategy that maximized abundance coincided with the least expensive strategy. Releasing adults resulted in slightly larger final abundance than the release of nonreproductive juveniles. Both strategies were equally poor in achieving a viable metapopulation, but releasing adults was 2–4 times more expensive than releasing juveniles. To obtain a metapopulation that would be viable for 30 years, fecundity in the wild would need to increase to the values observed in captivity and juvenile survival would need to increase to almost unity. We suggest that the most likely way to increase these vital rates is by increasing habitat quality at release sites.