黄土高原能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全时空耦合协调关系分析——以榆阳区为例

黄土高原能源富集区是我国重要的能源基地和粮食主产区,其水资源匮乏使区域水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战。为研究黄土高原能源富集区能源、粮食与水资源之间协调发展状况,本研究以水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全为核心,通过构建水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS模型和耦合协调度模型,分析了典型案例地榆林市及榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全水平及其耦合协调关联特征。结果表明：从水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合协调关系来看,榆林市各区县水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度整体较高且近年来呈现缓慢下降趋势,耦合协调度呈现“北高南低”格局且近年来表现出轻微下降趋势。从榆阳区层面来看,榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度较高,耦合协调度呈现由中度协调向优质协调发展态势,水资源系统制约水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全发展,能源子系统波动性较强。为协调能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展,政府应健全跨部门协调机制,因地制宜、合理规划产业布局,同时构建节约高效的资源管理体系,提升资源使用效率。     

Privatisation and outsourcing in wartime: the humanitarian challenges

The tendency today to privatise many activities hitherto considered the exclusive preserve of the state has given rise to sharp debate. The specific nature of humanitarian emergencies elucidates in particularly stark contrast some of the main challenges connected to the privatisation and outsourcing of essential public services, such as the provision of drinking water and health care. Privatising the realms of defence and security, which are at the very core of state prerogative, raises several legal and humanitarian concerns. This article focuses on the roles and responsibilities of the various parties involved in armed conflicts, especially those of private companies engaged in security, intelligence and interrogation work, and in the provision of water supply and health services. It highlights the need for humanitarian and development actors to grasp better the potential risks and opportunities related to privatisation and outsourcing with a view to supplying effective protection and assistance to communities affected by war.     

Precision teaching to improve drivers’ lane maintenance

Introduction: This study investigates the effect of precision teaching signals on lane maintenance. Methods: In experiment 1, the control group drove a simulator with no signals. In experiment 2, drivers were presented with auditory signals depending on their position within or outside the lane. In experiment 3, visual signals were presented in addition to auditory signals to examine the effect of redundancy on drivers’ lane maintenance. Results: Results showed an improvement in lane maintenance in experiment 2. Cross-experiment analysis indicated this effect not to be the result of learning. Data from experiment 3 also showed that presenting redundant signals did not further reduce lane variability or help drivers maintain a more central position within the lane. Conclusions: Taken together, data suggest precision teaching be effective as an educational tool to improve lane maintenance. Practical Applications: Our study shows the potential for precision teaching to serve as a valuable tool in driver training.     

氧化还原体系低温引发丙烯酸酯乳液聚合安全风险研究

以甲基丙烯酸甲酯、丙烯酸酯乙酯、丙烯酸酯丁酯为反应单体,十二烷基苯磺酸钠为乳化剂,过硫酸铵为氧化剂,亚硫酸氢钠为还原剂,在低温下进行乳液聚合。主要研究了反应单体的热稳定性及反应过程中的相关热力学参数,最后按照规定对该聚合体系进行了安全风险研究。研究结果表明,丙烯酸酯混合单体无热分解放热风险,丙烯酸酯乳液体系的绝热温升(△Tad)为49.6℃,失控体系能达到的最高温度(MTSR)为91.9℃,该体系的最终反应工艺危险度评估为1级,聚合工艺热风险低。     

中国现代城镇化发育的能源消费

城镇是现代社会财富积累的中心。矿物燃料为主的一次能源不仅是现代人类社会发展的基本动力来源,也是现代城镇化发育的基本动力来源。随着城镇化发育不断走向成熟,城镇的生存和发展对能源消费的依赖日趋强烈。这种消费需求不仅体现在总量增长方面,而且更体现在质量提高方面。世界和中国的实践均证明了这一点。所不同者,在产业发展政策和能源消费政策的作用下,中国现代城镇化发育的能源消费表现出明显的不尽人意:第一,能源消费总量增长迅速,甚至进入21世纪以来也是如此;第二,能源消费结构演进缓慢、特别是进入国家城镇化快速发育阶段后的表现更是如此;第三,能源产出效率提高有限,甚至出现一定程度的倒退。如此能源消费特征,对中国城镇化的持续发育构成了巨大挑战,因此,建议加快城镇产业结构调整、推进能源消费结构演进和提高城镇能源消费质量。     

国内外游客安全管理研究进展

安全是旅游业的生命线,是游客在旅游过程中首要关心的问题,对旅游目的地的可持续发展具有重要意义。为了探讨游客安全研究中存在的问题及发展方向,在参阅研究文献的基础上,从游客安全意识、成因、评估和保障等方面,对国内外游客安全研究进展进行了评述。     

基于事故树的三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件诱因分析

三峡库区蓄水后对长江水体自净能力的极大削弱,沿江聚集的各类生产、生活活动对长江水质的多渠道污染极易引发库区各类水体污染公共安全事件。结合对库区水体污染公共安全事件多维度诱发因素的调研结果,运用事故树的分析方法对三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件的逐级诱发过程进行分析。研究表明：存在13条诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件的路径以及3条防治水体污染公共安全事件的路径;在不考虑诱因发生概率的情况下,排污因素是诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件最重要、最根本的因素,促成库区水体自净能力下降的回水区变长,水流紊动减弱和水位抬升三方面因素是次重要的诱发因素。只有对不同的诱因施行不同的监测和控制策略,才能对库区水体污染公共安全事件开展有效预警、预控.     

Dynamic Tracking and Comprehensive Evaluation on the Natural Resources Security Elements and System in China

System theory,pressure-state-response and drivingpressure-state-impact-response model have been applied to establishing China's dynamic tracking evaluation system of natural resources security in this article.Based on analytic hierarchy process and Delphi methods,the natural resources security situation has been evaluated systematically from 1991 to 2007.The result showed that the overall level of China's natural resources security presented a downtrend from 1991 to 2007.The basic reasons are the pressure indicators such as population,GDP,natural resources trade increased gradually,resulting in tension and fragility of natural resources security.     

An Aquifer Classification System and Geographical Information System-Based Analysis Tool for Watershed Managers in the Western U.S.1

Payne, Scott M. and William W. Woessner, 2010. An Aquifer Classification System and Geographical Information System-Based Analysis Tool for Watershed Managers in the Western U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1003-1023. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00472.x Abstract: Aquifers and groundwater systems can be classified using a variety of independent methods to characterize geologic and hydraulic properties, the degree of connection with surface water, and geochemical conditions. In light of a growing global demand for water, an approach for classifying groundwater systems at the watershed scale is needed. A comprehensive classification system is proposed that combines recognized methods and new approaches. The purpose of classification is to provide groundwater professionals, policy makers, and watershed managers with a widely applicable and repeatable system that reduces sometimes cumbersome complex databases and analyzes to straightforward terminology and graphical representations. The proposed classification system uses basin geology, aquifer productivity, water quality, and the degree of groundwater/surface water connection as classification criteria. The approach is based on literature values, reference databases, and fundamental hydrologic and hydrogeologic principles. The proposed classification system treats dataset completeness as a variable and includes a tiered assessment protocol that depends on the quality and quantity of data. In addition, it assembles and catalogs groundwater information using a consistent set of nomenclature. It is designed to analyze and display results using Geographical Information System mapping tools.