基于生态足迹改进模型的生态安全及其预测研究

由William Rees提出的生态足迹模型已经成为近年来生态可持续发展的重要的度量工具,但是该模型仅考虑了土地的基本生产功能,忽视了土地生态系统的服务功能。文章借鉴生态系统服务功能理论改进了传统的生态足迹模型,将生态系统服务功能价值当量因子引入生态足迹模型均衡因子和产量因子的计算中,改进后的模型体现了生态系统功能的完整性;同时,文章以江苏省2010年的统计数据为基础,应用改进模型计算了其2010年生态压力指数,结果表明,江苏省生态压力指数达到1.495,其安全状况已经超过了极不安全边界,处于极不安全状态;最后利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型对其2011-2015年的生态安全状况进行了预测,发现江苏省未来5年生态压力指数快速增大,年平均增长速度为6.89%,表明江苏省未来5年生态安全状况将继续恶化,这将严重影响其生态可持续发展和经济可持续发展。     

电化学强化低能耗废水生物处理技术研究

以碳布为阴阳极材料构建一种新型的生物电化学系统（BES）,研究该系统在不曝气条件下对城市污水的处理效果,并与传统的厌氧和好氧处理方法进行比较。结果表明,该BES处理城市污水是可行的,与传统曝气法相比能够显著降低能耗。在进水CODcr,为350mg／L、NH3-N为15mg／L、水力停留时间（HRT）为24h时,电化学强化生物处理系统对CODcr和NH3-N的去除率达84％和80％,优于同等条件下的厌氧、好氧生物处理方法。BES的输出电压最高为211mV。     

优化城镇污水处理厂运行管理的探讨

结合城镇污水处理厂运行管理经验,探讨通过优化工艺控制、科学合理的生产调度、强化设备管理、加强安全管理和成本管理控制等措施,来实现优化城镇污水处理厂的运行管理;从而有利于污水处理厂实现安全生产、稳定达标、高效运行。通过优化和强化城镇污水处理厂运行管理,不仅有利于充分发挥污水处理厂污水治理的环境效益,在国家节能减排工作中发挥更大的作用;同时有利于污水处理厂进一步降低运行成本、开源节流,实现污水处理厂的可持续发展。     

基于改进RPS的共因失效模型及在安全仪表系统中的应用研究

基于安全仪表系统共因失效机理的定性分析,在单一冲击下的RPS模型基础上,以泊松分布作为冲击的先验分布,建立了多冲击下考虑共因失效的安全仪表系统可靠性模型;采用基于专家经验和估计的方法,对模型参数进行估计;并通过定量分析确定出影响系统共因失效的最大冲击因子,为降低系统共因失效对可靠性的影响提供辅助决策支持。将改进的多冲击RPS模型的可靠性分析结果与β模型和PDS模型进行比较,验证了该模型的工程准确性。     

基于GIS的海洋底栖生物栖息密度空间插值方法

在地理信息系统即GIS的支持下,分别采用反距离加权(inverse distance weighted,IDW)、普通克里格(ordinary krig-ing,OK)、规则样条(regularize spline,RS)和张力样条(tension spline,TS)4种插值方法对2006年7月获得的大连湾底栖生物栖息密度的数据进行空间插值处理,并对插值结果的精确度进行交叉验证,分析和比较不同插值方法获得的分布图。结果表明,插值精确度普通克里格>反距离加权>张力样条>规则样条;4种方法均能较客观的模拟出底栖生物栖息密度的分布趋势,但是在整体趋势和局部趋势两方面的综合考虑下,普通克里格的表现效果更好。文章进一步指出,在确定站位数量及分布前提下,插值结果的精确度可以通过选择空间插值方法得以改善,但其根本还是取决于站位布置的数量和其分布合理性。     

Observed LATCH use and misuse characteristics of child restraint systems in seven states

INTRODUCTION: Although the LATCH System (Lower Anchors and Tethers for Children) holds the promise of simplifying the installation of a child restraint system (CRS) to the vehicle's seat, many drivers transporting young children have difficulties using this technology. This paper reports on an observation study of LATCH use and misuse. METHOD: Observations of approximately 1,000 children less than 5 years of age in CRSs, in the back seats of vehicles that were equipped with tether and lower anchors, in seven states. RESULTS: Tethers were used for 51% of the children when the forward-facing CRS had tether straps and the vehicle had tether anchors. Lower anchors were used for 58% of the children when the CRS had lower attachments and the vehicle had lower anchors. The most common tether and lower attachment misuses were loose tether straps (18% of cases) and loose lower attachment installation (30% of the cases), respectively. Vehicle safety belts were used in combination with lower attachments in 20% of all lower anchor installations. CONCLUSION: As more caregivers of young children drive vehicles equipped with LATCH, it will be important to promote the proper installation of CRSs using this technology. LATCH education messages must also emphasize that the lower anchors may not always be the safest choice for CRS attachment -- the safest attachment is the one that results in a tight fit and will be used correctly consistently.     

农村环境安全评价体系研究

农村环境安全是近年来国内研究的一个新领域,研究成果对我国新农村建设具有重要的指导意义.本文在小尺度水平上,建立了农村环境安全评价体系.采用由大到小、由点到面、逐层分解的方法,把整个评价体系分3个层次,21个具体指标,强调人口素质与人均耕地2个基本要素,突出有机固体废物资源化水平和经济发展水平对农村环境安全的影响.建立的农村环境安全评价体系具有层次简单、数据容易获得、运算方便、评价结果合理等特点.     

Pastoral farmland habitat diversity in south-east Ireland

In this study, habitat surveys were undertaken on 50 grass-based farms in SE Ireland and data digitised onto aerial photography. Additional data i.e. stocking rates, and participation (or otherwise) in the Irish Rural Environment Protection Scheme (REPS) were collected and analysed as possible explanatory variables for farm habitat composition.Results indicated that approximately 14.3% of the land area of sampled farms comprised of semi-natural habitat types, a proportion substantially greater than has been reported for many other European countries. The most frequently recorded semi-natural habitats included, field boundaries, scrub, and deciduous and riparian woodlands.Multivariate analysis of farm habitat configuration showed a strong dichotomy between dairy and non-dairy farming systems. Habitats such as intensively managed grassland and built ground were closely associated with dairy-based enterprises. In contrast, the incidence of other habitat types was associated with non-dairy and/or REPS participating enterprises. The ecological quality of field boundaries as assessed by the Field Boundary Evaluation and Grading System (FBEGS) Index was significantly greater on dairy, compared with dry-stock farms.This dichotomy in farm habitat composition is not reflected within current Agri-Environment (AE) policy. Integration of locally important drivers of habitat diversity into the design and implementation of AE policy, is integral to the successful performance of AE schemes.     

谱系聚类法在小区域粮食安全预测中的应用——以昆山市为例

粮食安全对国民经济的可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用,小区域由于受政策因素的影响较大,粮食安全相关指标的变化呈一定阶段性,长时间序列的数学规律并不突出,不利于规划工作的展开。论文基于昆山市的研究,提出谱系聚类与数学模型相结合的基本思路,在此基础上推出了聚类结果有效性的量化判定标准并对聚类法运用准则做了深入的探讨。实际数据分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;与利用全部时间序列数据建立的模型相比,运用谱系聚类的模型拟合和预测效果都有明显优势;至2015年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至6%,最小人均耕地面积降低至0.022 hm²。通过进一步的分析、对比及讨论,文章认为,谱系聚类法运用于小区域粮食安全预测,方法可操作性强,结论科学性显著。     

Seven suppositions about energy security in the United States

Changing the patterns of energy use requires investigating how energy consumers - not experts - conceive of energy challenges. This article explores the varying beliefs, attitudes, and views on energy security in the United States among experts and residents. Based primarily on an academic literature review to distill expert views, and a survey distributed to hundreds of residents in the U.S. to capture consumer views, the study begins by explaining its methodology before identifying seven suppositions related to energy security. These suppositions involve security of fuel supply, energy democracy, energy research and development, affordability of energy services, environmental pollution, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The second section of the study tests these suppositions with a survey distributed to 427 respondents in the United States. Three suppositions are supported, two are unsupported, and two are neither supported nor unsupported. The final section of the study offers implications for U.S. energy policy and scholarship.