ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

DERIVATION OF THE GAMMA DISTRIBUTION BY USING THE PRINCIPLE OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY (POME)1

The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive the two-parameter gamma distribution used frequently in synthesis of instantaneous or finite-period unit hydrographs. The POME yielded the minimally prejudiced gamma distribution by maximizing the entropy subject to two appropriate constraints which were the mean of real values and the mean of the logarithms of real values of the variable. It provided a unique method for parameter estimation. Experimental data were used to compare this method with the methods of moments, cumulants, maximum likelihood estimation, and least squares.     

MODELING ACID MINE DRAINAGE ON A WATERSHED SCALE FOR TMDL CALCULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The Cheat River of West Virginia is impaired by acid mine drainage (AMD). Fifty‐five of its river segments were placed on the 303(d) list, which required calculations of total maximum daily load (TMDL) to meet the water quality criteria for pH, total iron, aluminum, manganese, and zinc. An existing watershed model was enhanced to simulate AMD as nonpoint source load. The model divided a watershed into a network of catchments and river segments. Each catchment was divided into soil layers, which could contain pyrite, calcite and other minerals. A kinetic expression was used to simulate pyrite oxidation as a function of oxygen in the soil voids. Oxygen in the soil voids was consumed by pyrite oxidation and replenished by earth breathing. The by‐products of pyrite oxidation were calculated according to its mass action equations. Chemical equilibrium was used to account for the speciation of ferrous and ferric irons and precipitation of metal hydroxides. Simulated hydrology and water quality were compared to available data. The USEPA used the calibrated model to calculate the TMDLs in the Cheat River Watershed.     

Setting the stage for the review of the international estimate of short-term intake (IESTI) equation

ABSTRACT

In the framework of setting Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) for pesticides, both chronic and acute health risks to consumers arising from the long-term and short-term dietary exposure to pesticide residues have to be assessed. The current internationally harmonized approach for assessing the acute dietary exposure is based on deterministic methods for calculating the IESTI (International Estimate of Short-Term Intake). Recently, it became apparent that the IESTI approach needs a revision in the light of new scientific and political aspects. The main reasons that require this review were the lack of an international harmonization of the methodology which implies trade barriers as well as difficulties in risk communication concerning the public trust in regulatory systems. The most recent milestone in the scientific debate on a possible revision of the IESTI equation was an international scientific workshop held in Geneva in September 2015. The main objectives of this meeting were the re-evaluation, and where possible, the international harmonization of the input parameters for the IESTI equations as well as the equations themselves. The main recommendations from the workshop were (i) to replace the highest residue and supervised trials median residue with the maximum residue limit (MRL), (ii) to use a standard variability factor of three, (iii) to derive the P97.5 large portion value from the distribution of consumption values of dietary surveys expressed as kg food/kg bw/d, and (iv) to remove the commodity unit weight from the equations. In addition, the application of conversion factors and processing factors was addressed. On the initiative of the (World Health Organization) WHO Collaborating Centre on Chemical Food Safety at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands, an international working group with members from the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, France (ANSES), Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority, Australia (APVMA), German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Germany (BfR), Chemical Regulation Division, the United Kingdom (CRD), European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), and RIVM, the Netherlands was formed after the IESTI workshop to conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of the proposed changes of the IESTI equations.     

稀土元素对富营养化水体中藻类增长的影响

利用藻类生长潜力测试方法,在太湖五里湖区水样中分别添加不同浓度轻,中、重３种稀土元素、Ｇｄ（Ⅲ）、Ｙ（Ⅲ）与３种稀土混合物,研究稀土元素对富营养化水体中藻类增长的影响。     

利用(HJ/T2.2-93)导则进行排气筒几何高度设计的探讨

确定烟囱高度 ,既要满足大气污染的扩散稀释要求 ,又要考虑节省投资 ,最终保证地面浓度不超过《环境空气质量标准》规定的浓度限值。本文根据 (HJ T2 2— 93)中有关公式 ,经过深一步推导 ,得出孤立排气筒几何高度设计的计算公式。为在一般情况下 ,凡以 (HJ T2 2— 93)为依据的烟囱几何高度设计和环境质量评价工作提供了一个简便、易用的方法。     

Monitoring of Pesticide Residues in Fruits

Fruit samples of ber, grapes and guava analysed for pesticide residues employing multiresidue analysis by gas liquid chromatography equipped with ECD and NPD detectors and capillary columns showed contamination with organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. Among organochlorines, HCH, DDT and endosulfan were detected in almost all the samples. Residues of HCH and DDT were maximum in ber followed by grapes and guava where as of endosulfan were maximum in guava followed by grapes and ber. All the fruit samples showed the presence of residues with one or the other group of pesticides. Residues of none of the pesticides exceeded the MRL values in any sample. On the basis of these studies, it is suggested that monitoring studies should be extended to other fruits grown in different agro climatic regions which may serve as basis for future policy in chemical use.     

用模糊数学对大连湾水质的评价研究

由于海域水环境系统的不确定性、随机性以及海域水质分级的模糊性,传统的海域水质评价方法如单因子评价法、综合污染指数法往往不能客观地反映海域水资源的质量状况。用模糊数学的方法对大连湾的水质环境质量进行评价,能够客观地分析出大连湾的污染状况,为合理规划、控制大连湾沿岸污染企业的污水排放提供科学依据,从而达到有计划地控制和治理海域污染,改善海域环境质量的目的。     

High Sediment Oxygen Demand Within an Instream Swamp in Southern Georgia: Implications for Low Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Coastal Blackwater Streams1

Todd, M. Jason, George Vellidis, R. Richard Lowrance, and Catherine M. Pringle, 2009. High Sediment Oxygen Demand Within an Instream Swamp in Southern Georgia: Implications for Low Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Coastal Blackwater Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1493‐1507. Abstract: Sediment oxygen demand (SOD) is considered a critical and dominant sink for dissolved oxygen (DO) in many river systems including blackwater streams and is often poorly investigated or roughly estimated in oxygen budgets. The purposes of this study are to (1) characterize and document the magnitude and variability of SOD in representative instream swamps found on the Georgia Coastal Plain; (2) predict SOD from more readily measured parameters such as soil, sediment, and litter organic carbon; and (3) obtain an accurate representation of SOD values within this understudied habitat to help improve water quality models and the continued development of DO as an appropriate water quality standard. Results show SOD rates ranging from 0.491 to 14.189 g O₂/m²/day, up to 18 times higher than values reported for southeastern sandy‐bottomed streams and suggest that instream swamps are repositories of large amounts of organic matter and are thus areas of intense oxygen demand and a major factor in determining the oxygen balance of the watershed as a whole. These areas of intense oxygen demand in relatively unimpacted areas indicate that low DO concentrations may be a natural phenomenon. SOD rates were significantly correlated (alpha = 0.05) with a number of sediment parameters, with organic carbon and total organic carbon being the best predictors of SOD rate. When developing water quality models, managers should pay closer attention to the influence of SOD as it plays a critical role in determining DO levels within instream swamps and the river system.     

AVGWLF‐Based Estimation of Nonpoint Source Nitrogen Loads Generated Within Long Island Sound Subwatersheds1

Abstract: The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model and its ArcView interface (AVGWLF) were used to estimate and examine the components of the total nitrogen (TN) nonpoint source (NPS) load generated within New York and Connecticut (CT) watersheds surrounding Long Island Sound (LIS, the Sound). The majority of data used as model inputs were generally available from online sources, and the work involved an overall calibration to streamflow and TN data in accordance with generic guidelines recommended in the GWLF manual. The GWLF model performance for three calibration and two validation watersheds in CT was compared with results of a detailed model, Hydrological Simulation Program in Fortran, developed in a previous study. The results of the application illustrate the usefulness of the relatively simpler, less parameter‐intensive GWLF model in performing exploratory loading analysis in preparation for adaptive nutrient management in the LIS watersheds. The presented methodology is valuable for identification of priority watersheds for NPS pollution reduction and also for planning‐level evaluation of best management practices to achieve the desired reductions. It is estimated that ground‐water base flow may be the largest pathway for NPS TN to the Sound, contributing about 54% of the total NPS TN load, a finding with significant implications for LIS total maximum daily load reduction scenarios. In addition to ground water, septic systems are estimated to contribute about 17% of the total load, with the remaining TN load being mostly runoff from urban (17%), agricultural (5%), and low impact (e.g., forest) areas (6%).