渤海海底土类动剪切模量比和阻尼比试验研究

土的动剪切模量比和阻尼比是工程场地地震安全性评价工作和土层地震反应分析中不可缺少的重要参数。本文采用应力控制振动三轴试验装置对渤海海底的常规土类动剪切模量比G/G_(max)和阻尼比λ进行试验研究,试验装备为HX-10O控制振动三轴试验系统,土类包括粘土、粉质粘土、细砂、粉砂、粉砂质细砂,土样来自渤海海域内BZ13-1、BZ26-2、QK18-2等3油田的场地钻孔。采用拆线曲线拟合动剪切模量比G/G_(max)、阻尼比λ随动剪应变γ变化的关系,得到各类上的G/G_(max)、λ随γ变化关系及推荐值。本文的结果已在这3个油田平台的地震安全性评价中使用,本项工作积累的有关基础资料和工作方法可供该海域内有关海洋建设工程的地震安全性评价工作以及未来海域内的地震区划工作借鉴和参考。     

Land use/cover change effects on floods with different return periods: a case study of Beijing, China

In this study, an approach integrating digital land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis, hydraulic modeling and statistical methods was applied to quantify the effect of LUCC on floods in terms of inundation extent, flood arrival time and maximum water depth. The study took Beijing as an example and analyzed five specific floods with return periods of 20-year, 50-year, 100-year, 1000-year and 10000-year on the basis of LUCC over a nine-year period from 1996 to 2004. The analysis reveals that 1) during the period of analysis Beijing experienced unprecedented LUCC; 2) LUCC can affect inundation extent and flood arrival time, and floods with longer return periods are more influenced; 3) LUCC can affect maximum water depth and floods with shorter return periods are more influenced; and 4) LUCC is a major flood security stressor for Beijing. It warns that those cities having experienced rapid expansion during recent decades in China are in danger of more serious floods and recommends that their actual land use patterns should be carefully assessed considering flood security. This integrated approach is demonstrated to be a useful tool for joint assessment, planning and management of land and water.     

三江平原气候变暖的进一步认识:最高和最低气温的变化

利用三江平原17个站1951-2000年的平均最高、最低气温和气温日较差资料，采用线性倾向估计和几种突变检测方法，定量研究了最高、最低气温和气温日较差变化趋势的空间分布，比较了最高、最低气温变化特征的差异性。结合前期的相关研究结果，对研究区20世纪70年代中期以来的三江平原气候变暖过程和成因有了进一步的认识。1975—2000年的变暖时期主要由两个阶段构成：1975—1987年为第一阶段，以夜间升温为主要特征，相对应的是气温日较差明显减小，超过一定面积的湿地开垦是该阶段气候变暖的主要驱动力之一；1987-2000年为第二阶段，以白天和夜间同时升温且幅度相当，气温日较差没有明显的变化趋势为特点，这一阶段的升温是对全球气候变暖同步的区域响应。     

Approaches to Evaluate Water Quality Model Parameter Uncertainty for Adaptive TMDL Implementation1

Abstract: The National Research Council recommended Adaptive Total Maximum Daily Load implementation with the recognition that the predictive uncertainty of water quality models can be high. Quantifying predictive uncertainty provides important information for model selection and decision‐making. We review five methods that have been used with water quality models to evaluate model parameter and predictive uncertainty. These methods (1) Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, (2) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, (3) Bayesian Monte Carlo, (4) Importance Sampling, and (5) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are based on similar concepts; their development over time was facilitated by the increasing availability of fast, cheap computers. Using a Streeter‐Phelps model as an example we show that, applied consistently, these methods give compatible results. Thus, all of these methods can, in principle, provide useful sets of parameter values that can be used to evaluate model predictive uncertainty, though, in practice, some are quickly limited by the “curse of dimensionality” or may have difficulty evaluating irregularly shaped parameter spaces. Adaptive implementation invites model updating, as new data become available reflecting water‐body responses to pollutant load reductions, and a Bayesian approach using MCMC is particularly handy for that task.     

沱江上游（绵远河,石亭江）环境水文条件分析

本文对无实测水文资料的平原水网区使用水文比拟法进行环境水文条件分析并提出有效的处理方法及合理的成果。     

AN ILLUSTRATION OF MODEL STRUCTURE IDENTIFICATION1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this article is to discuss the importance of uncertainty analysis in water quality modeling, with an emphasis on the identification of the correct model specification. A wetland phosphorus retention model is used as an example to illustrate the procedure of using a filtering technique for model structure identification. Model structure identification is typically done through model parameter estimation. However, due to many sources of error in both model parameterization and observed variables and data, error-in-variable is often a problem. Therefore, it is not appropriate to use the least squares method for parameter estimation. Two alternative methods for parameter estimation are presented. The first method is the maximum likelihood estimator, which assumes independence of the observed response variable values. In anticipating the possible violation of the independence assumption, a second method, which coupled a maximum likelihood estimator and Kalman filter model, was presented. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is presented as a preliminary method for judging whether the model structure is appropriate or not.     

An Innovative Index for Evaluating Water Quality in Streams

A water quality index expressed as a single number is developed to describe overall water quality conditions using multiple water quality variables. The index consists of water quality variables: dissolved oxygen, specific conductivity, turbidity, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform. The objectives of this study were to describe the preexisting indices and to define a new water quality index that has advantages over these indices. The new index was applied to the Big Lost River Watershed in Idaho, and the results gave a quantitative picture for the water quality situation. If the new water quality index for the impaired water is less than a certain number, remediation—likely in the form of total maximum daily loads or changing the management practices—may be needed. The index can be used to assess water quality for general beneficial uses. Nevertheless, the index cannot be used in making regulatory decisions, indicate water quality for specific beneficial uses, or indicate contamination from trace metals, organic contaminants, and toxic substances.     

ESTIMATING NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT THRESHOLD CRITERIA FOR BIOLOGICAL IMPAIRMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: This study employs a simple nonlinear statistical approach to establish nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentration and unit area load thresholds to aid in the evaluation of aquatic biological health of watersheds within the state of Pennsylvania. Flow, nitrogen and phosphorus species, sediment, basin area, land cover, and biological assessment data were assembled for 29 Pennsylvania watersheds. For each watershed, rating curves depicting flow versus load relationships were developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) storage and retrieval database (STORET) flow and concentration data, then applied to daily flow data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily flow gauging stations to estimate daily load between 1989 and 1999. The load estimates and concentration data were then sorted into six sets of data: mean annual unit area nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads; and average nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentrations. Results of Mann‐Whitney tests conducted on each of the six datasets indicate that there is a statistically significant difference between the concentrations and unit area loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in impaired and unimpaired watersheds. Concentration thresholds, calculated as the midpoint between the impaired and unimpaired watersheds’ 95 percent confidence interval for the median, were estimated to be 2.01 mg/L, 0.07 mg/L, and 197.27 mg/L for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. Annual unit area load thresholds were estimated to be equal to 8.64 kg/ha, 0.30 kg/ha, and 785.29 kg/ha, respectively, for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment species.     

NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL PEAK FLOW DATA FROM A RECENTLY URBANIZED WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of a nonparametric statistical application in investigating the hydrologic impact of the rapid land use change accompanying intense urbanization, annual maximum peak flow data from an actual example (the Northeast Branch Basin, a recently urbanized Washington, D.C., suburban watershed) were analyzed. Annual peak flow data from the Patuxent Basin above Unity, Maryland, a rural watershed in close proximity to the study area, were compared to data from the Northeast Branch for the Same period utilizing the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test. A change in central tendency of each series was noted at the 0.01 significance level; however, the change was negative in the rural basin and positive in the urbanized Northeast Branch Basin. This central tendency change was considered indicative of an average decrease in the size of rainstorms producing annual maximum peak discharges. Rainstorm data from the Northeast Branch Basin were divided into two equal periods (before urbanization and after) and the Wilcoxon test was applied. It was found that rainstorms producing maximum annual peak discharges in the urbanized period were indeed smaller than those in the prior period (0.01 level of significance); however, larger annual peaks were produced. It was concluded that nonparametric statistical methods can be used readily with conventional methods to isolate and clearly analyze the various problems in an actual urban hydrologic study.     

集约化蔬菜地土壤磷素累积特征及流失风险

以南京市郊集约化蔬菜长期种植基地为对象,采集蔬菜种植年限分别为3~5、15~20、25~30 a的土壤,测定土壤全磷(TP)、速效磷(Olsen-P)、水溶性磷(CaCl2-P)、生物有效磷(NaOH-P)的含量,并对0—20 cm土层磷素吸附特性进行分析,通过研究土壤磷吸附饱和度(DPS)、最大缓冲容量(MBC)来对土壤磷素流失风险进行评估。结果表明,在0—20 cm土层,除NaOH-P外,其余各形态磷(TP、Olsen-P、CaCl2-P)都随种植年限延长呈增加趋势。不同种植年限土壤TP、Olsen-P、CaCl2-P、NaOH-P主要积累在0—20 cm土层,且随着土层深度的增加土壤磷的累积量逐渐降低。DPS随种植年限延长而升高,种植年限25~30 a的菜地0—5 cm土层DPS超过土壤磷素流失环境敏感指标临界值(25%),其MBC也最低,表明随着蔬菜种植年限的延长土壤磷素流失风险加剧,且流失风险主要体现在0—5 cm土层。