A set of associated statistical tests for spatial clustering

The purpose of this paper is to develop a set of associated statistical tests for spatial clustering. In particular, a set of three associated tests will be developed; these will correspond to the three types of tests set out by Besag and Newell (general tests, focused tests, and tests for the detection of clustering). The associated tests draw primarily, though not exclusively, upon existing tests and results. The principal contributions are based upon the score statistic for focused tests, which has been an important approach to testing for clustering around environmental hazards. The first contribution consists of the formulation of a global statistic for general tests that corresponds to focused score statistics, along with an assessment of the distribution of the statistic under the null hypothesis of no raised incidence. The local score statistics used for focused tests will have the property of summing to the global statistic used for the corresponding general test. Attention is also given to the maximum local score statistic for the “test for the detection of clustering”. The critical values of this statistic which are required for testing the null hypothesis are described. Application of the methods is made to leukemia data for central New York State.     

细粒酒精模型冰的特征长度和变形模量

描述了细粒酒精模型冰特征长放和变形模量的测试理论基础和方法，给出了实际测量结果并该对方法存在的问题进行了讨论。简述了试验过程中发生蠕变的事实并给出最佳试验的砝码质量和试验国外还给出了特征长度，变形模量与冰密度和未冻液体含量的试验关系。     

不同阴极电子受体从生物燃料电池中发电的比较研究

以活性炭阳极双室生物燃料电池为基础,使用葡萄糖(COD为2000mg·L-1)作为底物,比较了铁氰化钾、过氧化氢、重铬酸钾和高锰酸钾分别作为生物燃料电池阴极电子受体时电池的开路电压和功率输出.结果表明,铁氰化钾、过氧化氢和重铬酸钾对应的开路电位分别为0.72V、0.33V和1.13V,均低于高锰酸钾的1.4lV.铁氰化钾和重铬酸钾对应的最大功率密度分别为4788mW·m-3和10951m W·m-3,相比之下高锰酸钾对应的最大功率达到了21912 mW·m-3.除过氧化氢外,3种氧化剂对应的电池内阻没有区别,均在2200Ω左右.当高锰酸钾浓度为200mg·L-1、pH为2.0时,开路电位高达1.44V,阴极电位达到1.38V,pH对电池电压输出的影响比高锰酸钾浓度更为显著.将高锰酸钾用于生物燃料电池从有机废水中发电不但可以极大提高系统的功率输出,还具有十分显著的经济和环境效益.     

Gender response and safe carrying load limit for sugar industry workers

This study investigates the safe carrying load limit in relation to gender of workers in the sugar industry. A total of 632 workers (male and female) were interviewed following a physiological and psycho-physiological methodology. All of these workers were in the age groups of 21–30, 31–40 and ≥41 years. In this study, for the physiological methodology, both field and laboratory data were collected, which included heart rate, heart rate variability, energy expenditure and maximum rate of oxygen consumption. Information regarding hemoglobin content, weight, age, lean body weight, etc., was recorded to know the physical health of the workers. In the psycho-physiological evaluation, load-carrying limits were determined by the psychophysical rating of the load by workers from the selected age groups. By considering the physiological stresses and psycho-physiological evaluation, the safe carrying load limit was determined in head and back mode for male and female workers as per their age groups.     

威布尔分布环境折合因子计算及其应用研究

目的对不同环境条件试验下的数据进行融合。方法针对应用最为普遍的威布尔分布类型的环境折合因子进行研究,给出威布尔分布环境折合因子的定义,根据极大似然估计法对威布尔分布环境折合因子进行计算。结果得出了相关环境折合因子的计算结果,在此基础上给出了应用环境折合因子进行数据融合的方法和步骤。结论应用威布尔分布环境折合因子可以合理的对不同环境下试验数据进行融合,达到扩大试验样本的目的。     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

Setting conservation priorities for migratory networks under uncertainty

Conserving migratory species requires protecting connected habitat along the pathways they travel. Despite recent improvements in tracking animal movements, migratory connectivity remains poorly resolved at a population level for the vast majority of species, thus conservation prioritization is hampered. To address this data limitation, we developed a novel approach to spatial prioritization based on a model of potential connectivity derived from empirical data on species abundance and distance traveled between sites during migration. We applied the approach to migratory shorebirds of the East Asian‐Australasian Flyway. Conservation strategies that prioritized sites based on connectivity and abundance metrics together maintained larger populations of birds than strategies that prioritized sites based only on abundance metrics. The conservation value of a site therefore depended on both its capacity to support migratory animals and its position within the migratory pathway; the loss of crucial sites led to partial or total population collapse. We suggest that conservation approaches that prioritize sites supporting large populations of migrants should, where possible, also include data on the spatial arrangement of sites.     

Acceleration of Exotic Plant Invasion in a Forested Ecosystem by a Generalist Herbivore

Abstract: The successful invasion of exotic plants is often attributed to the absence of coevolved enemies in the introduced range (i.e., the enemy release hypothesis). Nevertheless, several components of this hypothesis, including the role of generalist herbivores, remain relatively unexplored. We used repeated censuses of exclosures and paired controls to investigate the role of a generalist herbivore, white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), in the invasion of 3 exotic plant species (Microstegium vimineum, Alliaria petiolata, and Berberis thunbergii) in eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests in New Jersey and Pennsylvania (U.S.A.). This work was conducted in 10 eastern hemlock (T. canadensis) forests that spanned gradients in deer density and in the severity of canopy disturbance caused by an introduced insect pest, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). We used maximum likelihood estimation and information theoretics to quantify the strength of evidence for alternative models of the influence of deer density and its interaction with the severity of canopy disturbance on exotic plant abundance. Our results were consistent with the enemy release hypothesis in that exotic plants gained a competitive advantage in the presence of generalist herbivores in the introduced range. The abundance of all 3 exotic plants increased significantly more in the control plots than in the paired exclosures. For all species, the inclusion of canopy disturbance parameters resulted in models with substantially greater support than the deer density only models. Our results suggest that white‐tailed deer herbivory can accelerate the invasion of exotic plants and that canopy disturbance can interact with herbivory to magnify the impact. In addition, our results provide compelling evidence of nonlinear relationships between deer density and the impact of herbivory on exotic species abundance. These findings highlight the important role of herbivore density in determining impacts on plant abundance and provide evidence of the operation of multiple mechanisms in exotic plant invasion.     

Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) and Other Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Public Water Systems,Private Wells,and Ambient Groundwater Wells in New Jersey Compared to Regulatory and Human-Health Benchmarks

Potential threats to drinking water and water quality continue to be a major concern in many regions of the United States. New Jersey, in particular, has been at the forefront of assessing and managing potential contamination of its drinking water supplies from hazardous substances. The purpose of the current analysis is to provide an up-to-date evaluation of the occurrence and detected concentrations of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and several other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in public water systems, private wells, and ambient groundwater wells in New Jersey based on the best available data, and to put these results into context with federal and state regulatory and human-health benchmarks. Analyses are based on the following three databases that contain water quality monitoring data for New Jersey: Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS), Private Well Testing Act (PWTA), and National Water Information System (NWIS). For public water systems served by groundwater in New Jersey, MTBE was detected at a concentration ≥10 μg/L, ≥20 μg/L, and ≥70 μg/L at least once in 30 (2%), 21 (1.4%), and five (0.3%) of sampled systems from 1997 to 2011, respectively. For private wells in New Jersey, MTBE was detected at a concentration ≥10 μg/L, ≥20 μg/L, and ≥70 μg/L at least once in 385 (0.5%), 183 (0.2%), and 46 (0.05%) of sampled wells from 2001 to 2011, respectively. For ambient groundwater wells in New Jersey, MTBE was detected at a concentration ≥10 μg/L, ≥20 μg/L, and ≥70 μg/L at least once in 14 (2.1%), 9 (1.3%), and 4 (0.6%) of sampled wells from 1993 to 2012, respectively. Average detected concentrations of MTBE, as well as detected concentrations at upper-end percentiles, were less than corresponding benchmarks for all three datasets. The available data show that MTBE is rarely detected in various source waters in New Jersey at a concentration that exceeds the State's health-based drinking water standard or other published benchmarks, and there is no evidence of an increasing trend in the detection frequency of MTBE. Other VOCs, such as tetrachloroethylene (PCE), trichloroethylene (TCE), and benzene, are detected more often above corresponding regulatory or human-health benchmarks due to their higher detected concentrations in water and/or greater toxicity values. The current analysis provides useful data for evaluating the nature and extent of historical and current contamination of water supplies in New Jersey and potential opportunities for public exposures and health risks due to MTBE and other VOCs on a statewide basis. Additional forensic or forecasting analyses are required to identify the sources or timing of releases of individual contaminants at specific locations or to predict potential future water contamination in New Jersey.     

西南技术工程研究所, 重庆 400039

目的建立敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差的年极值拟合模型。方法根据当地气象站台温度和相对湿度日记时值数据,连续统计若干年的三要素年极值,采用极大似然法建立各要素年极值的Gumbel模型,同时讨论值域有界类气象因素极值再现期的定义域。结果给出了敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差年极值的Gumbel模型参数。结论敦煌地区各气象因素Gumbel模型位置参数和尺度参数,温度极大值分别为35.193,1.072℃,温度极小值分别为-20.085,1.945℃,相对湿度极大值为95.254%,2.471%,相对湿度极小值为5.837%,1.505%,日温差极大值为20.676,0.777℃,日温差极小值为1.398,0.593℃;相对湿度极大值、相对湿度极小值和日温差极小值的再现期定义域分别为6.3,47和10年。