Setting conservation priorities for migratory networks under uncertainty

Conserving migratory species requires protecting connected habitat along the pathways they travel. Despite recent improvements in tracking animal movements, migratory connectivity remains poorly resolved at a population level for the vast majority of species, thus conservation prioritization is hampered. To address this data limitation, we developed a novel approach to spatial prioritization based on a model of potential connectivity derived from empirical data on species abundance and distance traveled between sites during migration. We applied the approach to migratory shorebirds of the East Asian‐Australasian Flyway. Conservation strategies that prioritized sites based on connectivity and abundance metrics together maintained larger populations of birds than strategies that prioritized sites based only on abundance metrics. The conservation value of a site therefore depended on both its capacity to support migratory animals and its position within the migratory pathway; the loss of crucial sites led to partial or total population collapse. We suggest that conservation approaches that prioritize sites supporting large populations of migrants should, where possible, also include data on the spatial arrangement of sites.     

Acceleration of Exotic Plant Invasion in a Forested Ecosystem by a Generalist Herbivore

Abstract: The successful invasion of exotic plants is often attributed to the absence of coevolved enemies in the introduced range (i.e., the enemy release hypothesis). Nevertheless, several components of this hypothesis, including the role of generalist herbivores, remain relatively unexplored. We used repeated censuses of exclosures and paired controls to investigate the role of a generalist herbivore, white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), in the invasion of 3 exotic plant species (Microstegium vimineum, Alliaria petiolata, and Berberis thunbergii) in eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests in New Jersey and Pennsylvania (U.S.A.). This work was conducted in 10 eastern hemlock (T. canadensis) forests that spanned gradients in deer density and in the severity of canopy disturbance caused by an introduced insect pest, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). We used maximum likelihood estimation and information theoretics to quantify the strength of evidence for alternative models of the influence of deer density and its interaction with the severity of canopy disturbance on exotic plant abundance. Our results were consistent with the enemy release hypothesis in that exotic plants gained a competitive advantage in the presence of generalist herbivores in the introduced range. The abundance of all 3 exotic plants increased significantly more in the control plots than in the paired exclosures. For all species, the inclusion of canopy disturbance parameters resulted in models with substantially greater support than the deer density only models. Our results suggest that white‐tailed deer herbivory can accelerate the invasion of exotic plants and that canopy disturbance can interact with herbivory to magnify the impact. In addition, our results provide compelling evidence of nonlinear relationships between deer density and the impact of herbivory on exotic species abundance. These findings highlight the important role of herbivore density in determining impacts on plant abundance and provide evidence of the operation of multiple mechanisms in exotic plant invasion.     

Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) and Other Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Public Water Systems,Private Wells,and Ambient Groundwater Wells in New Jersey Compared to Regulatory and Human-Health Benchmarks

Potential threats to drinking water and water quality continue to be a major concern in many regions of the United States. New Jersey, in particular, has been at the forefront of assessing and managing potential contamination of its drinking water supplies from hazardous substances. The purpose of the current analysis is to provide an up-to-date evaluation of the occurrence and detected concentrations of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and several other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in public water systems, private wells, and ambient groundwater wells in New Jersey based on the best available data, and to put these results into context with federal and state regulatory and human-health benchmarks. Analyses are based on the following three databases that contain water quality monitoring data for New Jersey: Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS), Private Well Testing Act (PWTA), and National Water Information System (NWIS). For public water systems served by groundwater in New Jersey, MTBE was detected at a concentration ≥10 μg/L, ≥20 μg/L, and ≥70 μg/L at least once in 30 (2%), 21 (1.4%), and five (0.3%) of sampled systems from 1997 to 2011, respectively. For private wells in New Jersey, MTBE was detected at a concentration ≥10 μg/L, ≥20 μg/L, and ≥70 μg/L at least once in 385 (0.5%), 183 (0.2%), and 46 (0.05%) of sampled wells from 2001 to 2011, respectively. For ambient groundwater wells in New Jersey, MTBE was detected at a concentration ≥10 μg/L, ≥20 μg/L, and ≥70 μg/L at least once in 14 (2.1%), 9 (1.3%), and 4 (0.6%) of sampled wells from 1993 to 2012, respectively. Average detected concentrations of MTBE, as well as detected concentrations at upper-end percentiles, were less than corresponding benchmarks for all three datasets. The available data show that MTBE is rarely detected in various source waters in New Jersey at a concentration that exceeds the State's health-based drinking water standard or other published benchmarks, and there is no evidence of an increasing trend in the detection frequency of MTBE. Other VOCs, such as tetrachloroethylene (PCE), trichloroethylene (TCE), and benzene, are detected more often above corresponding regulatory or human-health benchmarks due to their higher detected concentrations in water and/or greater toxicity values. The current analysis provides useful data for evaluating the nature and extent of historical and current contamination of water supplies in New Jersey and potential opportunities for public exposures and health risks due to MTBE and other VOCs on a statewide basis. Additional forensic or forecasting analyses are required to identify the sources or timing of releases of individual contaminants at specific locations or to predict potential future water contamination in New Jersey.     

西南技术工程研究所, 重庆 400039

目的建立敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差的年极值拟合模型。方法根据当地气象站台温度和相对湿度日记时值数据,连续统计若干年的三要素年极值,采用极大似然法建立各要素年极值的Gumbel模型,同时讨论值域有界类气象因素极值再现期的定义域。结果给出了敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差年极值的Gumbel模型参数。结论敦煌地区各气象因素Gumbel模型位置参数和尺度参数,温度极大值分别为35.193,1.072℃,温度极小值分别为-20.085,1.945℃,相对湿度极大值为95.254%,2.471%,相对湿度极小值为5.837%,1.505%,日温差极大值为20.676,0.777℃,日温差极小值为1.398,0.593℃;相对湿度极大值、相对湿度极小值和日温差极小值的再现期定义域分别为6.3,47和10年。     

油田回注水中硫酸盐还原原核生物的快速检测和群落结构分析

利用荧光原位杂交(Fluorescence in situ hybridization,FISH)技术,采用荧光标记的rRNA探针及其组合对胜利油田胜利采油厂回注水中硫酸盐还原原核生物(Sulfate reducing prokaryotes,SRPs,包括硫酸盐还原细菌和硫酸盐还原古菌)进行检测,分析了该回注水中SRPs群落结构.结果表明:SRPs在胜利油田回注水中具有极高的种群多样性,广泛分布于4个细菌门和1个古菌门;总数可达2.86×104个/mL,占回注水中总微生物细胞的20%左右;其中优势菌属为脱硫弧菌属(Desulfovibrio)和脱硫肠状菌属(Desulfotomaculum),分别占回注水微生物总细胞数的8.71%(±4.45%),和12.15%(±3.90%).Desulfobacterales和Syntrophobacterales这2个目中的SRPs,Thermodesulfobacteriales以及Thermodesulfovibro属的SRPs分别占样品微生物总量的7.59%(±2.92%),3.57%(±1.39%)和2.32%(±0.80%).除此之外,也检测到了占微生物总量4.29%(±1.75%)的Archaeoglobus属的SRPs,证明了古菌类SRPs是回注水中一个不容忽视的硫酸盐还原微生物种群.FISH法能够快速、准确地检测回注水中SRPs数量,解析SRPs群落结构.     

甲烷煤尘耦合爆炸传播特性及伤害研究

为探究煤尘质量浓度对甲烷煤尘耦合爆炸传播特性及伤害距离的影响,自制长15 m的爆炸管道系统,用体积分数为7％甲烷分别与质量浓度为0、50、100和200 g/m3的煤尘进行耦合爆炸试验,并根据质量、动量和能量守恒理论推导出最大压力计算公式.结果 表明:不同质量浓度煤尘与甲烷耦合爆炸时,最大压力均随与爆源距离的增加呈现出...     

三江源地区1961~2005年气温极端事件变化

利用三江源地区11个气象台站1961~2005年逐日最高气温和最低气温资料，分析了三江源地区极端高温和极端低温的变化趋势。研究表明：近45年来，白天和夜间温度极端偏高的日数明显增多，分别以26 d/10 a和44 d/10 a速度在增加;白天和夜间温度极端偏低的日数显著减缓，分别以41 d/10 a和85 d/10 a的速度显著减少;年极端低温和极端高温分别以042℃/10 a和029℃/10 a的速度增加;白天和夜间温度极端偏高的日数增加主要发生在冬季和夏季，而白天和夜间温度极端偏低的日数减少主要发生在春季和秋季，夜间温度极端偏低的日数减少趋势最为明显;长江源地区极端气温变化对区域增温的响应更为敏感。     

NON-ZERO LOWER LIMIT IN LOW FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS?1

ABSTRACT: The implications of fitting distributions with non-zero lower limits to low flow data are examined. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to annual minimum flow series from 60 long term stations in Canada. The relations between the estimated lower limit and three sampling variables (skewness, smallest, and largest observations) were investigated. The lower limit strongly depends on the sample skewness; it varies directly with the sample skewness, which in turn is highly influenced by the largest observation. For a given skewness, the value of the estimated lower limit is determined by the value of the smallest observation. Therefore, the lower limit cannot be accurately determined, and the resulting low flow estimates will be either too small or too high.     

ANALYSIS OF WASTE LOAD ALLOCATION PROCEDURES1

A study was made to analyze and modify procedures used for stream assimilation capacity and point source wasteload allocation calculations. This paper describes the sources and types of information collected and the analysis of alternative computation methods developed during the study. The calculation of stream assimilation capacity or Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), will depend upon assumed stream flows, quality standards, reaction rates, and modeling procedures. The “critical conditions” selected for TMDL calculations usually are low flows and warm temperatures. The complexity of water quality models used for TMDL and allocation calculations can range from simple, complete mixing to calibrated and verified mathematical models. A list of 20 wasteload allocation (WLA) methods was developed. Five of these WLA's were applied to an example stream to permit comparisons based on cost, equity, efficient use of stream assimilation capacity, and sensitivity to fundamental stream quality data. Based on insensitivity to data errors and current use by several states, the WLA method of “equal percent treatment” was preferable in the example stream.     

PREDICTING INSTANTANEOUS PEAK DEMAND IN RURAL DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many rural areas of the United States still have no public domestic water systems. Typical land use patterns in these areas may require 1/2 mile or more of pipe per farm connection. Public systems serving these areas are economically feasible only if realistic short-term peak demand standards are available for their design. The lack of reliable data upon which to establish such criteria has resulted in a large variation in criteria among state and federal agencies involved in financing and in approving construction of these systems. During the summer of 1975 three distribution laterals of a rural system in Utah were master metered and instantaneous peak flows were recorded for 4 months. The metered lines served 4, 12, and 22 farm houses each. The frequency distribution of peak flows has been analyzed and compared with that developed during similar research in Mississippi and with the existing design standards of the Farmers Home Administration and the State of Utah.