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11.
Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Michael J. Conroy Jon E. Anderson Stephen L. Rathbun David G. Krementz 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》1996,3(2):99-116
Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population
models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals,
in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time
proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide
inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival
from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias
< 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional
hazards. Bias was high (
relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor (
= 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced
by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’
effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low (
relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor (
= 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from
a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time
models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models. 相似文献
12.
Kenny C 《Disasters》2012,36(4):559-588
Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost–benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost‐effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at‐risk structures—and that, preferably, non‐experts can monitor—as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects. 相似文献
13.
14.
Michalis Diakakis 《Environmental Hazards》2016,15(2):148-159
Despite the dramatic increase in recorded flood events in Greece in the last decades, recent findings show that related mortality does not show a corresponding rise. This work develops and studies a database of flood-related fatalities to investigate qualitative changes in flood mortality in the country between 1960 and 2010. Observations show a shift in the circumstances under which fatal incidents occurred and in the demographics of the victims. In particular, indoor fatalities and cases in urban environments gradually decrease in favour of incidents occurring outdoors, in rural settings, mostly using motor vehicles. The number of fatalities per flood event show a decline, indicating that multiple-fatality incidents are gradually disappearing and that advances in protection have an impact on mortality. The increase in the use of vehicles, the improvements in the structural integrity of buildings and the advances in early warning and civil protection practices are found to influence mortality both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. 相似文献
15.
Settlement decisions in blue tits: difference in the use of social information according to age and individual success 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Dispersers are expected to assess breeding habitat quality before settlement. Although cues reflecting habitat quality are
well studied, social cues have not been as well evaluated. In this paper, we studied breeding habitat selection during 3 years
in a natural population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in nest-boxes. Our aim was to investigate if this species used conspecific density and/or reproductive success
of con- and heterospecifics (i.e., social cues) in settlement decisions. The patterns observed were consistent with the idea
that juveniles, when dispersing from their natal patches, did not react to any of the cues that we tested. In contrast, breeders
that dispersed seemed to respond to both conspecific mean patch reproductive success (PRS) and breeding density of the settlement
patch in the year of dispersal, their response differing according to their own reproductive success. Indeed, failed breeders
moved to areas with high PRS and low density relative to source patches, while successful breeders behaved the opposite. The
comparison between juveniles and adults might be modulated by the limited time available to juveniles to gather information
on PRS and density at the end of the dispersing year. Adults lacking these time constraints, however, seemed to rely on these
conspecific cues although limited by their own quality. Additionally, breeders were more likely to be immigrants in patches
with relatively low breeding success and density the previous year, suggesting that settlement is influenced by multiple cues,
which may reveal information on different aspects of habitat and be available at different moments. Collectively, our results
support the importance of social cues for blue tits’ settlement. 相似文献
16.
Alpaslan Turkkan Kayihan Pala 《International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics》2016,22(4):457-462
Introduction. The aim of this study was to evaluate the trend of occupational injuries in Turkey using epidemiologic criteria such as incidence mortality and fatality/all injuries recorded – rates. Materials and methods. Safety and health data were obtained from the Annual Statistic Books of the Social Insurance Institution (1988–2006) and Social Security Institution (2007–2011) of Turkey. Results. The results from the official data showed that although total employment is increasing the number of occupational injuries and incidence and mortality rates are decreasing. The results also demonstrate that occupational fatality/all injuries recorded – rate is increasing. The fatality/all injuries recorded – rate per 1000 injuries increased to 25.5 in 2011 from 8.6 in 1988. Each work day an average of five people died because of occupational injuries. Discussion and conclusions. The fatality/all injuries recorded – rate (the number of fatal cases per 1000 occupational injuries) is an important indicator of the injury rate for a country. Systems of occupational injury and illness surveillance constitute a critical resource for the management and reduction of occupational injuries and illness. 相似文献
17.
Md. Mahfuzar Rahman 《中国人口.资源与环境(英文版)》2013,11(4):79-84
Abstract Bangladesh is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal 4 relating to infant and under-five mortality because of very rapid reduction in mortality in recent years. But this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may hamper the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to discuss and compare the different covariates of infant and under-five mortality in the context of overall country, urban and rural levels of Bangladesh using discriminant analysis. For this, the data are taken from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2004. In discriminant analysis, the stepwise procedure has been picked up and only the significant variables are ranked according to the rank of Wilk’s Lambda values. The canonical discriminant function coefficients (unstandardized and standardized) for the predictor variables have also been calculated. Both the results show that breastfeeding is the most important variable in discriminating the two groups of mothers, i.e., mothers experiencing to infant mortality or not and mothers experiencing to under-five mortality or not. The related results of discriminant function also indicate that the discriminant function is statistically significant and discriminates well. Therefore, improvements in the health system are essential for promoting the breastfeeding practices (both inclusive and exclusive), which may be the effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information. 相似文献
18.
To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern. 相似文献
19.
Summary. Although terrestrial turtles have served as a model for studies of olfactory neurophysiology, little is known about how they
use chemical information in an ecological sense. We tested whether box turtles (Terrapene carolina) use chemical information to distinguish between predatory and nonpredatory mammals. Box turtles in our study exhibited more
escape behavior when exposed to urine from a predator (coyote, Canis latrans) than when exposed to urine from a nonpredator (white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus) or a blank control. Escape behavior is consistent with an antipredator response. In addition, the turtles decreased their
handling time for food when in the presence of urine from either species of mammal in comparison to the blank, indicating
that chemical cues from mammals in general may result in increased vigilance by terrestrial turtles. Examination of a variety
of response variables may be important for adequate assessment of the ecological role of chemosensory behavior. 相似文献
20.
Stefan Linde 《环境政策》2018,27(2):228-246
By creating attitudinal rifts among partisan voters, political polarization is expected to negatively affect chances of effectively mitigating climate change. While such expectations generally have found support, less attention has been paid to the opposite claim that political consensus should eliminate the partisan dimension in climate change politics. This study tests this claim by studying how party identification, and party cues specifically, affects public policy attitudes in a context defined by political consensus. Using data from a large online access panel in Sweden, party identification and party cues are shown to matter for policy attitudes even in a consensus context. This effect is not limited to certain issues but is found across a wide range of policies, and the effect of party cues, for a given issue, varies across parties. The implications of this study and areas for future work are discussed. 相似文献