安全管理决策支持系统的管理控制框架探讨

从安全管理的特性出发,用控制框图说明了安全管理控制系统的组成。在论述安全管理决策的内容及其最重。要的问题的过程中,提出了安全管理对象化的思想。利用6步描述方法解析了安全管理问题,并构建了安全决策支持系统的4 4模块化框架,为系统的研究与开发奠定基础。     

区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用

针对在飞机一发失效应急程序方案的选择中,很多定量因素难以精确量化的问题,将区间数多属性决策运用到飞机一发失效应急程序方案的优选中,构建了评价指标体系。此评价指标体系应用基于理想解的区间数多属性决策的相对隶属度法来选择最佳方案,该方法通过计算并查找现有方案的相对隶属度最大值来确定最佳方案。最后举例说明如何在实际中使用此方法。     

城乡生态经济交错区农地城市流转决策博弈研究

在城市化过程中,城乡生态经济交错区的农地被占用是一种普遍现象。在我国,农地城市流转是通过土地征用而实现的,即我国农地城市流转决策属于政府行为,因此,从决策主体行为出发,研究农地城市流转,对于我国城市化的正常推进以及农地的有效保护具有重要的现实意义。研究得出,在现有的制度安排下,地方政府更加注重区域农地流转的经济发展,村干部往往是政策的执行者,而农民在决策中往往处于弱势地位,对于农地流转决策影响不大。可见,要控制农地过量向城市流转,必须树立科学的发展观,完善决策机制,规范征地行为,提高农民参与权。     

基于需求时间的隧道塌方应急资源分级调度研究

为打破对物资送达时间的绝对性限制,均衡关注关键考量因素,提出需求时间的概念,借助ArcGIS绘制需求时间服务范围;考虑救援需求的不确定性,在需求时间服务范围内建立模型对应急资源进行分级调度,并对关键路段及交叉口制定应急交通管控预案.模型包括2部分,在路径决策方面,建立带需求时间和畅通可靠度阈值约束的路径选择决策综合评价...     

应急物资调运的动态协同决策优化建模仿真

为有效解决应急物资调运决策问题,提高应急物资利用率。总结应急物资调运基本流程、管理方法及存在问题,分析应急物资调运系统动静态资源、灾害分布及优先级等因素,借鉴动态调配 Multi Agent方法研究应急救援保障部门间协同作用,对应急物资调运系统供需路径与救援时效进行分析,构建应急物资调运系统高效、及时、低成本的动态调度模型,同时基于多源时间最短路径问题以及Floyd Warshall算法对模型进行求解仿真,得出应急物资最优调运路径和参与调配储存点组合。结果表明:动态调运决策模型可从备选集合中快速搜索应急调运所需最佳方案,能为应急救援提供更加可靠的保障。     

Factorial fuzzy programming for planning water resources management systems

In this paper, we propose a factorial fuzzy programming (FFP) approach for planning water resources management systems. The conventional fuzzy method cannot reflect the interactions among uncertain system parameters nor quantify their interactive effects. This may lead to important interrelationships among system parameters being neglected in systems analysis, and the derived decisions may not be robust enough to support the management under uncertainties. The objective of this study is to develop an FFP approach to deal with such interactive uncertainties. Factorial analysis (FA) was integrated with the fuzzy technique to quantify the effects of multiple fuzzy modeling parameters on the system performance and to reveal their implicit interrelationships. A flood-diversion planning case was studied to illustrate the applicability of the FFP approach. The individual and interactive effects of fuzzy parameters on the system objectives were evaluated. The influential effects were identified and the implicit interrelationships within influential interactions were revealed.     

Ethical Tools to Support Systematic Public Deliberations about the Ethical Aspects of Agricultural Biotechnologies

This special issue of the Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics presents so-called ethical tools that are developed to support systematic public deliberations about the ethical aspects of agricultural biotechnologies. This paper firstly clarifies the intended connotations of the term “ethical tools” and argues that such tools can support liberal democracies to cope with the issues that are raised by the application of genetic modification and other modern biotechnologies in agriculture and food production. The paper secondly characterizes the societal discussion on agricultural biotechnology and defends the thesis that normative perspectives fuel this discussion, so one cannot come to grips with this discussion if one neglects these perspectives. The paper thirdly agrues that no such thing exists as “one” societal debate in which these issues should be discussed. There are several interwined debates, and different actors participate in different discourses. Some practical instruments are necessary in order to include the right issues in these debates. These instruments will be coined as “ethical tools,” since they are practical instruments that can be used (tools) in order to support debates and deliberative structures for a systematic engagement with ethical issues (hence, ethical tools). Finally, the paper clarifies the ethics of these ethical tools and presents the tools as discussed in the remainder of this special issue: 1) tools to include ethical issues in public consulation and involvement; 2) tools to support systematic reflection upon ethical issues in decision-making; and 3) tools to support explicit communication about values in the food chain.     

长江流域水环境监测与智慧化管理策略

针对如何将水环境监测感知与智能信息化手段运用到长江生态质量诊断与管理之中,梳理了国内外水环境监测与智慧化管理系统的发展情况,并以长江生态环境保护修复智慧决策平台为例,介绍了长江流域水环境监测网络建设情况,以及智慧决策平台在水环境数据可视化、水环境大数据分析、污染源大数据分析、水质模拟与预测、水质成因分析、流域生态安全评...     

业务性防雹作业实时决策指挥系统的设计

本文论述了西北地区人工防雹业务性决策指挥的现状和面对的重要问题;探讨了目前无法识别的20%左右雹云在业务性防雹中的处理思路;以三级判别思路提出了业务性决策指挥系统的设计.     

铁路行车事故救援智能辅助决策系统研究

介绍了铁路行车事故救援智能辅助决策系统的设计及实现。采用产生式规则与数据库技术相结合的铁路行车事故救援决策知识表示方法。推理过程为正向推理。决策树分层分类并嵌入数据库。该系统可在行车事故现场以人机交互方式提供一个或几个救援方案。为铁路行车事故救援决策提供了一种新的途径与范例。并为人工智能在新的工程领域的应用进行了有益的尝试