Prioritizing species conservation programs based on IUCN Green Status and estimates of cost-sharing potential

Over 1 million species around the world are at risk of extinction, and conservation organizations have to decide where to invest their limited resources. Cost-effectiveness can be increased by leveraging funding opportunities and increasing collaborative partnerships to achieve shared conservation goals. We devised a structured decision-making framework to prioritize species’ conservation programs based on a cost–benefit analysis that takes collaborative opportunities into account in an examination of national and global conservation return on investment. Conservation benefit is determined by modifying the novel International Union for the Conservation of Nature Green Status for Species to provide an efficient, high-level measure that is comparable among species, even with limited information and time constraints. We applied this prioritization approach to the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Canada, a nonprofit organization seeking to increase the number of species it assists with conservation translocations. We sought to identify and prioritize additional species’ programs for which conservation translocation expertise and actions could make the most impact. Estimating the likelihood of cost-sharing potential enabled total program cost to be distinguished from costs specific to the organization. Comparing a benefit-to-cost ratio on different geographic scales allowed decision makers to weigh alternative options for investing in new species’ programs in a transparent and effective manner. Our innovative analysis aligns with general conservation planning frameworks and can be adapted for any organization.     

Factors associated with preemptive conservation under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In recent decades, there has been an increasing emphasis on proactive efforts to conserve species being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) before they are listed (i.e., preemptive conservation). These efforts, which depend on voluntary actions by public and private land managers across the species’ range, aim to conserve species while avoiding regulatory costs associated with ESA listing. We collected data for a set of social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors that we hypothesized would influence voluntary decisions to promote or inhibit preemptive conservation of species under consideration for ESA listing. We used logistic regression to estimate the association of these factors with preemptive conservation outcomes based on data for a set of species that entered the ESA listing process and were either officially listed (n = 314) or preemptively conserved (n = 73) from 1996 to 2018. Factors significantly associated with precluded listing due to preemptive conservation included high baseline conservation status, low proportion of private land across the species’ range, small total range size, exposure to specific types of threats, and species’ range extending over several states. These results highlight strategies that can help improve conservation outcomes, such as allocating resources for imperiled species earlier in the listing process, addressing specific threats, and expanding incentives and coordination mechanisms for conservation on private lands.     

应急物流研究现状及发展动态分析

从应急物流的定义与特征、系统体系构建、保障机制、风险评估以及定量模型等方面对国内外近10年来的应急物流相关成果进行系统分析,指出当前应急物流存在的问题与不足,探讨应急物流发展趋势。分析表明,国内外对应急物流定量模型的研究主要是选址和调度问题分开进行的,对选址调度问题的集成研究还较少,也没有将应急物流的风险识别与选址调度问题结合起来进行研究。另外,应急物流的开展需要多个部门协同决策,开发应急物流协同决策系统也将是未来的研究方向。     

基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评研究

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,考虑测评指标分为定性与定量2类,且指标存在模糊性的特点,建立基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评方法。根据相关规章规定、专家意见和问卷调查结果,确定测评指标体系,并依据云模型原理建立定性到定量的测评转换模型,将指标的定性测评转化为直观的定量评价;最后,根据云模型的期望、熵、超熵,评价民用机场消防指挥员决策能力水平。研究结果表明:利用基于云模型原理构建的定性与定量测评转换模型进行决策能力测评,所得测评结果能够体现评价指标模糊性和随机性的特点,评估结果更加直观且贴近实际情况。     

The challenges of participatory and systemic environmental management: from aspiration to implementation

Participatory and systemic approaches in environmental management are advocated as they are thought to lead to more equitable, resilient and integrated solutions. However, there is mounting evidence that, in practice, these approaches are exceedingly challenging and do not always lead to improved environmental management, or greater community engagement. To better understand the challenges facing organisations wishing to use these approaches, we monitored the dynamics of a decision-making process on an estate. We observed an oscillating pattern of widening and narrowing participation and integration. Three key factors created tensions with the estate's desires to increase community participation and follow a more systemic approach: stewardship values, organisational capacity and unresolved core issues. A combination of these tensions and other factors led to the early cessation of a series of planned participatory workshops. We conclude that academia needs to take these challenges seriously by placing greater emphasis on multi-dimensional, transdisciplinary analysis of such transformation processes.     

滇池流域水环境综合管理技术支撑平台构建研究

滇池流域水环境综合管理技术支撑平台以实现水环境数据信息化、支撑多元化、管理智能化为目标,集成水环境多元数据采集传输、融合共享及动态表征技术,突破高原湖泊流域多目标复杂环境综合管理决策控制技术,构建"数据中心-业务系统-信息发布"为主线的综合管理平台,其以水环境数据中心为支撑,以水环境信息系统与水环境专家决策支持系统为核心,以水环境信息发布系统为共享交换媒介,为流域管理提供监控预警、总量控制、预测预报、项目评估及应急决策等技术服务,有效支撑滇池流域水环境监控预警和综合管理。     

Constrained Choice and Ethical Dilemmas in Land Management: Environmental Quality and Food Safety in California Agriculture

As environmental and conservation efforts increasingly turn towards agricultural landscapes, it is important to understand how land management decisions are made by agricultural producers. While previous studies have explored producer decision-making, many fail to recognize the importance of external structural influences. This paper uses a case study to explore how consolidated markets and increasing corporate power in the food system can constrain producer choice and create ethical dilemmas over land management. Crop growers in the Central Coast region of California face conflicting demands regarding environmental quality and industry imposed food safety standards. A mail survey and personal interviews were used to explore growers’ perceptions and actions regarding these demands. Results indicate that in many cases growers face serious ethical dilemmas and feel pressured by large processing and retail firms to adopt measures they find environmentally destructive and unethical. Future strategies to address environmental issues on agricultural landscapes should consider the economic constraints producers face and the role of large firms in creating production standards.     

A case study of the opportunities and trade-offs associated with deproclamation of a protected area following a land claim in South Africa

Reconciling conservation and social justice imperatives is a major challenge facing many postcolonial states worldwide. Where historically disenfranchised communities have laid legal claim to protected areas, the typical resolution has been collaborative management agreements between the state and claimant communities. The real outcomes of such strategies for people and ecosystems have been seriously questioned, although alternative approaches are seldom explored. Here, we reflect on one such alternative that was pursued in a case in South Africa, where the land was handed back to the community and a replacement protected area created. Our objective was to explore the opportunities and trade-offs associated with this approach for communities and conservation agencies alike, and to compare these to typical collaborative management outcomes. Methods included key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household surveys. We find that, surprisingly, this approach created more benefits for the conservation agency than for claimant communities. Indeed, the community experiences bore a striking resemblance to those experienced in collaborative management settings: intra-community conflict, confusion over leadership and serious questions about the boundaries of the “community”. Processes aimed at redressing past injustice in disputes over conservation land, regardless of the approach adopted, must bring with them a strong commitment to building institutional and leadership capacities within communities, and pay serious attention to the ways in which equity and social justice can be fostered after the settlement of a land claim. Settlement agreements are frequently treated as the final step towards social justice, but are in fact just the beginning.     

基于气象灾害预报的作物种植类型决策方法

干旱、雨涝是农业生态方面重要的水文气象灾害,科学地根据水文气象预报来选择种植作物品种,一直是农业管理者、生产者非常关心的问题,传统的决策方法是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的,具有一定的局限性。提出了基于气象灾害预报对错概率的作物种植类型决策新方法,综合考虑了农业气象预报的误报概率和作物适应性,克服了传统方法的不足。对绥棱农场某种植区20年的水文气象资料进行了分析,计算了旱涝预报与实况联合概率矩阵,推导出水文气象预报对错概率矩阵;根据作物品种在不同天气状况的产量,确定了决策失误损失矩阵。实证分析表明,所提决策方法可有效地减少因旱涝灾害给粮食产量带来的损失,对作物品种的选择具有很好的实用参考价值。