增强环保科技创新能力支撑环境管理决策:需求·挑战·对策

新时代我国环境保护形势面临着深刻变化,满足人民群众日益增长的对优质生态产品需求成为环保工作的主要矛盾.为落实党的十九大关于生态文明建设和环境保护的要求,牢固把握"环保科技的人民性",在对未来环境形势和环保科技创新需求分析判断的基础上,紧密围绕绿色发展和环境质量改善的目标,提出了加强环保科技创新发展的4个重点任务:面向国民经济绿色发展主战场,全面提升环保科技供给能力和水平;加强环境科学基础研究,引领环境质量改善;研发关键技术,突破环境治理技术瓶颈;加大生态系统保护力度,推进人与自然和谐共生.同时,提出了完善环保科技创新体制机制的5点建议:实施平台化、国际化、产业化、规范化、信息化管理,助推现代环境科研院所制度建设;加快环保科技创新体系建设,完善和补强科技创新链条;完善管理决策支撑机制,解决科研与管理脱节的问题;统筹全国环境科研力量,创新重大科研项目组织模式;加强人才队伍建设,充分调动人才创新活力,为环保科技创新提供政策和制度保障.      

基于熵权TOPSIS法的火电厂选址综合决策

目前火电厂选址的综合评价方法主要依赖专家评判确定指标权重,主观性强、评分标准难以准确把握及合理运用.本文针对以上不足,将基于熵权的TOPSIS法应用于火电厂选址的综合决策,通过运用熵权法客观确定了选址评价体系各指标的权重,并构造了理想解与负理想解,以方案指标向量靠近理想解、远离负理想解来判断确定方案的优劣,同时结合实例...     

Integrating scientific knowledge into large-scale restoration programs: the CALFED Bay-Delta Program experience

Integrating science into resource management activities is a goal of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program, a multi-agency effort to address water supply reliability, ecological condition, drinking water quality, and levees in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of northern California. Under CALFED, many different strategies were used to integrate science, including interaction between the research and management communities, public dialogues about scientific work, and peer review. This paper explores ways science was (and was not) integrated into CALFED's management actions and decision systems through three narratives describing different patterns of scientific integration and application in CALFED. Though a collaborative process and certain organizational conditions may be necessary for developing new understandings of the system of interest, we find that those factors are not sufficient for translating that knowledge into management actions and decision systems. We suggest that the application of knowledge may be facilitated or hindered by (1) differences in the objectives, approaches, and cultures of scientists operating in the research community and those operating in the management community and (2) other factors external to the collaborative process and organization.     

关于生活垃圾管理问卷调查的分析

调查问卷涵盖了生活垃圾管理的体制机制、手段方法和规划决策、监督管理、垃圾标准、垃圾分类、垃圾量控制等重要内容。通过对问卷调查的分析,表明被调查人员对生活垃圾管理具有相当的认知水平。对主要内容具有共识,同时对一些问题的看法还存在差异。     

突发事件应急决策探讨

随着我国社会经济的发展,突发事件呈现急剧上升的趋势。通过分析总结突发事件应急决策的特点,从多个角度分析比较其与常规决策的差异,总结介绍了应急决策方法,构建了应急决策的流程模型,从突发事件应急决策支持系统的框架模型说明了软件支持、信息支持、辅助决策三个层次需要解决的关键问题,最后总结了应急决策评价的标准和方法等。     

农户土地利用决策对农业景观格局的影响研究——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例

探讨微观主体——农户土地利用行为与宏观农业景观格局之间的互动机理,对于了解农户行为的变迁,认识和理解农业景观格局的演变特征和过程,进而调控农户土地利用行为和优化农业景观格局,显然具有重要的理论与现实意义。论文利用构建的农户土地利用决策模型、个体对群体与群体对整体权重影响模型,利用实际收集的陕西省米脂县孟岔村2007年与2008年数据(地籍、地块面积与农户收入等数据),探讨占优势的土地利用决策与占优势的农业景观格局关系。得出如下结论:①占优势的土地利用决策并不一定形成该土地利用方式占优势的土地利用格局;②当年占优势的农户整体土地利用决策并不一定形成次年该土地利用方式占优势的土地利用格局。并提出今后需要进一步研究与探讨的问题:①完善农户土地利用决策模型,在模型中增加风险规避、土地轮作、特殊地类转化等因素;②进一步探索整合地块面积及其空间布局与土地利用决策的方法。     

WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES,CLIMATE CHANGE,AND PLANNING: Views of Community Water System Managers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin1

ABSTRACT: This research examines the sensitivity and vulnerability of community water systems (CWSs) to weather and climate in the Pennsylvania portion of the Susquehanna River Basin. Three key findings emerge from a survey of 506 CWS managers. First, CWSs are sensitive to extreme weather and climate, but that sensitivity is determined more by type of system than system size. CWSs that rely partly or wholly on surface water face more disruptions than do groundwater systems. Larger systems have more problems with flooding, and size is not a significant determinant of outages from storms or disruptions from droughts. Second, CWS managers are unsure about global warming. Few managers dismiss global warming; most think global warming could be a problem but are unwilling to consider it in their planning activities until greater scientific certainty exists. Third, the nature of the CWS, its sensitivity to weather and climate, and projected risks from weather and climate are insignificant determinants of how managers plan. Experienced, full-time managers are more likely to consider future weather and climate scenarios in their planning, while inexperienced and part-time managers are less likely to do so. Implications of these findings include support for efforts to move away from surface water, for clear communication of climate change information, and for the hiring and retention of full-time professional CWS managers.     

Post-evaluation of a water pollution control plan: methodology and case study

China has developed more than 20 water pollution control plans for river basins (RBWPs) since 1996. However, the implementation has generally lagged. This paper proposes a three-step, post-evaluation methodology to analyze the implementation result of a RBWP and its influential factors. First, a multi-attribute evaluation method based on an index system is established to score the enforcement results of a RBWP. Indicators measure how well a RBWP has achieved its objectives, which include water quality compliance, pollution load control, project construction, financial inputs, and related management requirements. Second, an interpretive structural model is used to detect the significant factors that affect RBWP implementation. This model can effectively analyze the cause-effect chain and hierarchical relationship among variables. Five groups of factors were identified, namely, plan preparation, water resource endowment, policy, institution, and management. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in the third step to evaluate the extent to which these factors have influenced the execution result of a RBWP, including pre-post contrast, scenario analysis, and correlation analysis. This research then post-evaluated the implementation of the Huai River Basin water pollution control plans (H-RBWPs) over a period of 10 years as a case study. Results showed that the implementation of the H-RBWPs was unsatisfactory during 2001–2005, although it improved during 2006–2010. The poor execution of these plans was partially caused by the underestimation of regional economic development in combination with ineffective industrial structure adjustment policies. Therefore, this case study demonstrates the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed post-evaluation methodology.     

土地整理立项决策评估的指标体系与方法探讨

土地整理立项决策评估是进行科学投资决策、正确选择整理项目的基础。根据我国土地整理产业发展现状,在深入分析与土地整理立项决策评估相关的社会、经济、技术、生态和组织管理等多种因子的基础上,初步构建了我国土地整理立项决策评估指标体系。运用可拓学中的物元理论和优度评价法,设立了土地整理立项决策评估的综合评判物元模型,给出了基于关联函数的可拓评估方法,并以国土资源部土地整理中心备选项目库的项目进行实例验证。模型输出的结果与项目评审专家组对各项目可行性的实际评估结论完全吻合。研究结果为土地整理立项决策提供了科学依据。