Multiple attribute evaluation of landscape management

Economic approaches to the valuation of ecological services have several limitations. Some of these limitations can be overcome using the multiple attribute decision-making model developed in this paper. The model postulates that a private or public decision-maker selects a site/landscape management plan based on the biophysical and economic attributes of alternative management plans, the decision-maker’s preferences for attributes, and constraints on the selection of a management plan.Two cases are examined. Case A is a watershed consisting of publicly owned land that is managed at the site, management unit and landscape scales. Management is based on the philosophy of ecosystem management. Case B is a watershed composed of several privately owned units that are managed at the site scale by decision-makers whose primary motivation is economic profit. The preferred management plan in both cases is determined using a two-stage procedure. The first stage uses a stochastic programming model to identify the most efficient management plans for a site/landscape. The second stage determines which efficient management plan for a site/landscape is preferred by maximizing an expected utility function that is additive in the attributes and assumes that the decision-maker is risk neutral.Whether a land-management plan results in strongly or weakly sustainable resource conditions is evaluated. Strong sustainability requires the probability of exceeding the minimum acceptable value of an attribute to be greater than or equal to a pre-determined reliability level for each attribute. Weak sustainability requires the same condition except that it applies to a composite index of the attributes rather than each attribute. Bayes theorem is used to evaluate uncertainty about whether the state of a landscape is sustainable.     

Assigning trend-based conservation status despite high uncertainty

Estimates of temporal trends in species’ occupancy are essential for conservation policy and planning, but limitations to the data and models often result in very high trend uncertainty. A critical source of uncertainty that degrades scientific credibility is that caused by disagreement among studies or models. Modelers are aware of this uncertainty but usually only partially estimate it and communicate it to decision makers. At the same time, there is growing awareness that full disclosure of uncertainty is critical for effective translation of science into policies and plans. But what are the most effective approaches to estimating uncertainty and communicating uncertainty to decision makers? We explored how alternative approaches to estimating and communicating uncertainty of species trends could affect decisions concerning conservation status of freshwater fishes. We used ensemble models to propagate trend uncertainty within and among models and communicated this uncertainty with categorical distributions of trend direction and magnitude. All approaches were designed to fit an established decision-making system used to assign species conservation status by the New Zealand government. Our results showed how approaches that failed to fully disclose uncertainty, while simplifying the information presented, could hamper species conservation or lead to ineffective decisions. We recommend an approach that was recently used effectively to communicate trend uncertainty to a panel responsible for setting the conservation status of New Zealand's freshwater fishes.     

Multicriteria Relocation Analysis of an Off-site Radioactive Monitoring Network for a Nuclear Power Plant

Due to increasing environmental consciousness in most countries, every utility that owns a commercial nuclear power plant has been required to have both an on-site and off-site emergency response plan since the 1980s. A radiation monitoring network, viewed as part of the emergency response plan, can provide information regarding the radiation dosage emitted from a nuclear power plant in a regular operational period and/or abnormal measurements in an emergency event. Such monitoring information might help field operators and decision-makers to provide accurate responses or make decisions to protect the public health and safety. This study aims to conduct an integrated simulation and optimization analysis looking for the relocation strategy of a long-term regular off-site monitoring network at a nuclear power plant. The planning goal is to downsize the current monitoring network but maintain its monitoring capacity as much as possible. The monitoring sensors considered in this study include the thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD) and air sampling system (AP) simultaneously. It is designed for detecting the radionuclide accumulative concentration, the frequency of violation, and the possible population affected by a long-term impact in the surrounding area regularly while it can also be used in an accidental release event. With the aid of the calibrated Industrial Source Complex–Plume Rise Model Enhancements (ISC-PRIME) simulation model to track down the possible radionuclide diffusion, dispersion, transport, and transformation process in the atmospheric environment, a multiobjective evaluation process can be applied to achieve the screening of monitoring stations for the nuclear power plant located at Hengchun Peninsula, South Taiwan. To account for multiple objectives, this study calculated preference weights to linearly combine objective functions leading to decision-making with exposure assessment in an optimization context. Final suggestions should be useful for narrowing the set of scenarios that decision-makers need to consider in this relocation process.     

An Evaluation of the Influence of Natural Science in Regional-Scale Restoration Projects

Regional-scale restoration is a tool of growing importance in environmental management, and the number, scope, and complexity of restoration programs is increasing. Although the importance of natural science to the success of such projects generally is recognized, the actual use of natural science in these programs rarely has been evaluated. We used techniques of program evaluation to examine the use of natural science in six American and three Western European regional-scale restoration programs. Our results suggest that ensuring the technical rigor and directed application of the science is important to program development and delivery. However, the influence of science may be constrained if strategies for its integration into the broader program are lacking. Consequently, the influence of natural science in restoration programs is greatest when formal mechanisms exist for incorporating science into programs, for example, via a framework for integration of science and policy. Our evaluation proposes a model that can be used to enhance the influence of natural science in regional-scale restoration programs in the United States and elsewhere.     

城市污水处理厂工艺方案选择的辅助决策模型

针对目前城市污水处理厂工艺方案选择中存在着较大的主观随意性和不确定性,以及多指标、多层次的特点,将层次分析法与灰色关联分析相结合,提出了工艺方案选择的多层次模糊灰色耦合模型,用于实际方案选择的辅助决策工具。并运用该模型进行了实例研究。     

运用模糊层次分析法优选制浆造纸废水深度处理方案

制浆造纸废水最适深度处理方案的选择是一个多准则决策问题,本文通过建立评价指标体系,从经济费用、技术性能、管理效果和社会效益4个方面,对混凝沉淀（气浮）＋过滤、Fenton氧化和生态法3种深度处理方案进行分析;采用层次分析法确定指标体系权重,其中技术性能（0.5333）权重最高;结合模糊数学法开展综合评判,评估各方案的优缺点,最后通过方案总排序确定工程优选方案。同时,针对2个具有代表意义的制浆造纸企业废水深度处理工程案例,在方案隶属度的确定时增加了决策者的期望值和企业的实际情况,分别选取了最适的制浆造纸废水深度处理方案：混凝沉淀（气浮）＋过滤法（A企业）和生态法（B企业）,这样可以更客观地指导决策者选取最合适的制浆造纸废水深度处理方案。     

Evaluation of the Design Features of Interactive Sea-Level Rise Viewers for Risk Communication

Interactive sea-level rise viewers (ISLRVs) are digital tools used to communicate about impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and support decision-making. This study characterizes how ISLRVs communicate about SLR-related risks and provide decision-making support. It identifies key themes about fostering accurate mental models of SLR processes, informing about inundation likelihood, communicating about related social and ecological risks, and providing features users can apply to specific tasks. We present a framework for understanding this type of communication tool that designers can use to develop robust ISLRVs that can support audiences’ understanding and decision-making needs, and contribute to enhancement of coastal resiliency.     

Integrating flood hazard into site selection of detention basins using spatial multi-criteria decision-making

This study presents an innovative approach for the integration of flood hazard into the site selection of detention basins. The site selection process is conducted by taking into account multiple criteria and disciplines. Hydraulic modeling results derived from stormwater management model are employed by Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to determine flood hazard score. The score generated by TOPSIS is used in a spatial multi-criteria decision-making site selection framework. Applying the framework, a suitability map is generated in which primary locations for detention basin placement are determined. The method is demonstrated through the case study of Darakeh River Catchment, which is located in northern Tehran, Iran. The presented framework can be easily utilized for site selection of other stormwater management techniques, such as low impact development and best management practices, due to its versatility.     

Guidance to improve the effectiveness of process safety management systems in operating facilities

The Process Safety Management (PSM) systems at the operating facilities in the Oil & Gas and in Chemical manufacturing industries have matured over the years and have become, at most facilities, very robust and sophisticated. These programs are administrated by Process Safety (PS) teams at both the corporate business units and plant levels and have been effective in reducing the number and severity of PS events across the industries over the past 25 years or so. Incidents however are occurring at a regular interval and in recent times several noteworthy PS events have occurred in the United States which have brought into question the effectiveness of the PSM programs at play. These facilities have been applying their PSM programs with the expectation that the number and severity of PS events would decrease over time. The expected result has not been realized, especially in context to those facilities that have undergone the recent incidents. Current paper reviews a few publicly available PS performance reports of Oil & Gas and Chemical manufacturing industries. The authors identified a few factors at play that have led to these PS events based on their experience, literature review, and incident investigation reports. Most of the factors are intertwined with multiple PSM elements and it requires a holistic approach to address them. Each of the factors is described and the path forward is proposed to improve the effectiveness of PSM programs.