Knowledge governance for ecosystem-based management: Understanding its context-dependency

The governance of knowledge is a crucial element of ecosystem-based management (EBM) and is deemed important for its effectiveness. In this paper we analyze from an empirical perspective how the governance of knowledge in different EBM practices is organized and with what consequences. Based upon four different case studies – all derived from the Wadden Sea – which resemble different contexts (in terms of available knowledge and level of conflict) we reconstruct four different ways of knowledge governance. These four approaches are labeled the database, the alignment, the assessment and the holistic approach. These approaches differ in how the interaction between knowledge production and decision-making is organized. They show different degrees of success, partly related to the extent to which they fit in the context in which they are applied. Understanding the differences in contexts in which knowledge for EBM has to be organized, can help decision-makers to apply the most suitable way of knowledge governance in their specific case. In cases of low conflict and high knowledge capacity a more static, one-directional way of knowledge governance can suffice, while in more complex contexts a holistic approach seems to be necessary.     

多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用

本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。     

煤矿突发事件应急救援的群决策方法

提出了基于直觉模糊集的煤矿突发事件应急救援TOPSIS群决策模型。其中决策者权重采用偏好值与群体平均偏好值的相似度计算,属性指标权重采用直觉模糊熵权法确定。通过直觉模糊加权集成运算将各决策矩阵进行合成得到综合决策矩阵,利用改进后的直觉模糊距离公式计算出全部备选救援方案到正负理想解的距离,根据TOPSIS运算结果可以确定最佳事故救援决策方案。最后通过黑龙江省鸡西某矿的实例分析,验证了该模型的有效性及合理性。     

Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy.     

Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

Economic valuation as a tool to support decision-making in strategic green infrastructure planning

Decision-making in spatial planning is often based only on administrative regulations and procedures. This approach does not guarantee an efficient allocation of scarce financial resources. Consequently, the present paper discusses the practical relevance of an approach to incorporate results of economic valuation into strategic spatial planning for the example of green infrastructure. For this, a contingent valuation was conducted at a reference site in Esslingen, Germany. Here, participants of the survey stated their willingness to pay for different green infrastructure investment categories. Build on the survey results, the possible future foci of regional green infrastructure planning are derived and impacts on regional green infrastructure policy for the case of the Neckar region are investigated.     

防灾工程动态投资决策分析

本文应用最优控制理论对作者在文献[1]中所建立的两个防灾工程多变量动态投资决策模型进行了求解和理论分析。在一些基本符合工程实际的假设下得到了模型的解析解以及一些有意义的结果。     

应急救援物资车辆运输线路的选择

为了给紧急救援物资支持保障中心的物资调度人员提供科学的车辆路线调度决策方法,提高应急救援工作的响应能力,基于应急条件下物资运输调度的时效性、安全性和经济性特征,运用旅行商理论,对上述3个决策属性分量进行了数学描述,构造了它们的目标函数,并进行了无量纲和权重聚合处理,继而按照多属性决策理论建立了用来评价备选线路决策效用函数的数学模型.利用期望效用属性合并所搜集的信息,将多属性决策问题转化成单属性决策问题,确立了选择具有最高期望效用方案的方法,最后进行了实例分析.结果表明,应急救援条件下的运输调度与正常环境下的企业运输调度决策目标之间存在明显的差异,前者虽然本质上属于图论中最短路线问题的范畴,但由于多个决策目标的存在,不能直接运用最短路线模型和Dijkstra算法求解.运用多属性决策理论建立的评价备选线路决策效用函数,是有关人员进行车辆路线安排的有效方法,但其相对优越性尚需做进一步的研究和探讨.