煤自燃灾害气体指标的阶段特征试验研究

为分析煤自燃早期气体指标变化特征规律,更好地解决煤矿现场灭火救灾决策问题,通过煤自燃程序升温试验,首先得到煤样气氛中O2,CO,CO2,CH4,C2H4和C2H6气体的体积分数随温度的变化规律。根据煤体温度,将煤自燃前期划分为5个阶段(潜伏、储热、蒸发、活跃和乏氧)。分析3种不同变质程度的煤样的气体指标在各阶段的变化特征。建立煤自燃气体指标与特征温度阶段区间的对应关系。结果表明:在自燃潜伏阶段,煤的变质程度越低,早期越易产生CO,越难产生CH4;在储热阶段,煤的变质程度越低,早期越易且越快产生C2H6;在蒸发阶段,煤内外在水分脱附,低变质煤的C2H4也随之产生;在活跃阶段,各种气体体积分数均有剧烈增高的趋势,较高变质煤的C2H4也随之产生;在乏氧阶段,O2体积分数低于15%,与O2体积分数相关指标(CO/ΔO2,CO/CO2等)趋势有所改变。     

Local communities' participation in decision-making processes through planning and budgeting in African countries

Community participation and community based management are topical themes in current policy and discussion revolving around decision-making processes especially those dealing with natural resources management.This review shows that while governments have accepted the need to either cede or devolve control and management of natural resources to the local communities,the communities are not part and parcel of the planning and budgeting which are crucial in decisionmaking.Communities were seen to be more involved in the implementation of natural resource management programs but lacked ownership of the projects.This causes lack of commitment to the programs and at times hostile reaction from the communities.The communities are always at the receiving end when it pertains to losses in the exchange.Community participation was shown to be effective when the local population is involved not as co-operating users but as natural resource managers or owner managers.     

Multi-objective Programming and Social Welfare Analysis of Rural–urban Land Conversion Decision-making

Abstract

Rural–urban land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in urbanization and industrialization. And the decision-making issue about this conversion is multi-objective because the social decision maker (the whole of central government and local authority) has to integrate the requirements of different interest groups (rural collective economic organizations, peasants, urban land users and the ones affected indirectly) and harmonize the sub-objects (economic, social and ecological outcomes) of this land allocation process. This paper established a multi-objective programming model for rural–urban land conversion decision-making and made some social welfare analysis correspondingly. Result shows that the general object of rural–urban land conversion decision-making is to reach the optimal level of social welfare in a certain state of resources allocation, while the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural–urban land conversion decision-making objects.     

基于粗糙集理论的路段交通事故多发点成因分析

交通事故多为多种原因综合造成且具有不确定性。判别各因素对于引发交通事故的影响程度存在困难,因此,需要引入不确定性分析方法。基于粗糙集理论具有处理不精确、不确定与不完全数据的优势,是一种先进的并处于不断发展的不确定性分析和推理方法。笔者提出路段上交通事故成因分析的模型和方法。具体做法是,根据该路段事故多发点的统计数据建立基于粗糙集理论的决策表,再利用粗糙集模型的简约算法求出各个因素的重要性,从而判断各因素对交通事故的影响程度大小,为决策提供依据。以算例说明模型和方法的可用性。     

淮南市防震减灾决策系统的建立

在机制上将一个地市(淮南市)的地震预报与防震决策融为一个动态整体,从而建立起一个实用性强的防震减灾决策系统,使城市各种防震对策的生成有了更科学的基础。成为市政府在防震减灾决策中不可缺少的工具。     

我国公众参与环境决策的运行机制及其优化

本文简要论述了良好的决策机制是公众参与环境决策的基本保障,分析了当前我国公众参与环境决策运行机制存在的不足,并提出了优化其运行机制的一些思路。     

多目标排队决策法——在大连地区土地利用结构调整中的应用

本文采用多目标排队决策法对专家的咨询意见进行了定量处理,从各用地部门的经济、生态和社会效益出发,确定了他们的优先级,并结合土地利用现状对今后的土地利用结构作出了合理的调整规划设想。     

公路隧道信息化施工与计算机辅助决策系统研究

结合公路隧道建设实例,通过需求分析,提出了公路隧道信息化施工与计算机辅助决策系统的总体思路。利用数据库技术与软件工程技术,对此系统进行了详细设计,并开发了此软件系(Tunnel-CAS)。该软件系统集围岩类别智能判别、围岩应力分析与预测、围岩变形分析与预测和围岩支护结构安全性判别四大功能于一体,具有友好的用户界面。     

Multicriteria decision support in a technology competition for cleaning polluted soil in Helsinki

Due to expansion of the capital area in Finland, industrial areas are being replanned for residential and commercial use. The soil in these areas is sometimes contaminated, and must therefore be cleaned before building. In spring 1997 the City of Helsinki and the National Technology Agency of Finland declared a contract-based competition for cleaning the polluted soil of the planned Toukolanranta residential area. Nine proposals entered the competition, and the problem was to choose three best candidates for test-cleaning a small part of the region considered. The winner of the test-cleaning phase will get the contract for cleaning the whole area. The proposals were evaluated based on five criteria defined by the competition board consisting of eight experts. The finalists were chosen aided by the SMAA-2 Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis technique. SMAA-2 is a method for analysing what kind of preferences favour each alternative. This method is particularly useful in applications, where it is difficult or impossible to obtain accurate preference information. In this application SMAA-2 was observed to suit well for choosing a small set of best alternatives with different strengths and weaknesses.