THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES FOR WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLORADO AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven basins; both have extensive and complex water management systems in place; and both have had numerous, independent studies done on them. This review analyzes the models, methods, climate assumptions, and conclusions from these studies, and places them in the context of the new climate scenarios developed for the National Assessment. Some significant and consistent impacts have been identified for these basins, across a wide range of potential climate changes. Among the most important is the shift in the timing of runoff that results from changes in snowfall and snowmelt dynamics. This shift has been seen in every regional result across these two basins despite differences in models and climate change assumptions. The implications of these impacts for water management, planning, and policy are discussed.     

GREAT LAKES WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS WITH TRANSIENT GCM SCENARIOS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes water resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrated model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydraulic models, and water resource use sub-models. The water resource uses include hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The study is unique in that both steady-state 2°CO₂ and transient global circulation model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevertheless, the transient scenarios show that in the near-term (approximately 20 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urgency of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses.     

水资源定价方法的初步探讨

根据水资源的特点,分析了开展水资源定价研究的目的和意义,设计了水资源存在价值及其经济价值确定方法的研究思路,研究认为,探讨水资源存在价值应考虑其本身的价值和环境容量虚幻成本２方面;水资源经济价值则包括水淘汰存在价值和水资源转化为水资源商品后物化的使用价值,这里的使用价值又包含水资源污染治理及损害成本、稀缺性价值、边际运行成本和边际时间成本等４个方面,在以上分析的基础上,给出了水资源定价的计算模型,     

城市生态系统服务功能的价值结构分析

本文从城市生态系统价值体系出发,探讨城市自然资本,经济资本和社会资本综合测算的理论与方法,结果表明：示范区的自然总资本以年均４％的速度递减,其真实总资本年均增长率为４．５％而不是国内生产总值的１２．６％,自然资本的增减应成为衡量一个城市或区域是否实现可持续发展的核心指标。城市生态系统中自然资本由持续递减变为递增,是实现人类共同追求的可持续发展目标必由之路。     

稀土矿开采对土地资源的影响及植被恢复

对广东省平远县稀土矿开采对土地资源的影响进行了初步的调查和分析。同时在已进行的植被恢复措施的基础上,对其效应作了初步的分析,评价了恢复措施对水土流失和土壤理化性质的影响,并据此提出了比较适合的植被恢复措施。     

海南省农业能值分析

应用ＯｄｕｍＨＴ创立的能值分析理论和方法,对海南省农业进行了分析和评价,结果表明：由于自然条件得天独厚,环境资源对农业的贡献很大,环境资源能值占能值利用率的３０％,高于全国平均值（１３％）;净能值产出率为１．２７,高于日本和意大利,可以作为一种能值来源;农牧渔业产品的宏观经济价值远大于市场价值,农业生产中有相当大一部分环境资源无偿投入;环境承载指标为２．４４,远低于日本和意大利,环境压力较小,发展潜力很大。进而提出促进农业持续发展的有关建议与设想。     

云南省土著民族对村社生态环境和植物资源的保护

云南省土著民族在长期生产实践中积累了丰富的知识,形成了特有的习俗。这些知识和习俗对保护当地生态环境和资源发挥了重大作用。本文从宗教信仰、民俗、耕作制度、栽培、选种等方面进行归纳,以期从中汲取有益于农业持续发展的精华。     

中国沿海地区水资源及生态环境持续利用战略

由于地质和地理条件的特殊性,沿海地区生态环境极其脆弱和敏感。水资源短缺、水环境污染、海水入侵、地面沉降、生态环境退化和海平面上升,已构成我国沿海地区实现可持续发展战略面临的重大资源和环境问题。水资源和生态环境的持续利用,已成为我国沿海地区一项极其重要的战略任务。根据可持续发展理论,通过建立适应水资源持续利用的管理体制、政策和运行机制,采取生态环境可持续保护策略,可完全达到水资源和生态环境的持续利用,并有效实现中国沿海地区资源、环境与经济、社会的有机协调及经济、社会的持续、稳定、健康发展     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

河北省自然灾害危险性分析及其在主体功能区划评价中的应用

自然灾害危险性是主体功能区划评判的基础指标之一,用于反映特定区域自然灾害发生的可能性和灾害损失的严重性,是评价区域开发支撑条件的一个重要指标。在分析自然灾害危险性指标评价方法、流程及其在主体功能区划评价中的作用的基础上,依据河北省的自然环境特点及主要自然灾害情况,选取其主要灾害要素为评价对象,利用G IS技术对河北省自然灾害危险性进行了综合分析,并在此基础上综合评价了河北省自然灾害对区域发展的影响。