沂沭带应力场动态追踪研究与苍山5.2级地震

通过对沂沭带应力场动态变化的追踪，利用《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》中的一些方法，对沂沭带进行了系统的计算和分析，发现了在苍山Ｍｓ５．２地震前，沂沭带中、南段应力场小区域综合震源机制解Ｐ轴方位出现了长达１０年的分离现象，初动矛盾符号比出现１０年低值异常，多项地震活动性参数也出现了不同程度的异常显示。     

深圳市罗湖断裂带活动性及建筑物安全监测系统设计

本文介绍了在深圳市复杂的城市环境里进行断裂活动及建筑物安全监测的思路和方法，以及监测技术系统的构成与布置，以北东向的罗湖断裂带和北西向断裂切割的典型地块及坐落在这些地块上的高层建筑物为重点监测目标，选择一些高层建筑物及水库大坝建立变形监测系统；沿断裂带展布方向布设一定密度的水准环线构成地面垂直变形监测网；布设GPS参考网和相对网，构成地面水平位移监测网。     

有关昆仑山口西8.1级地震及其余震活动趋势的讨论

在处理了部分有关资料的基础上 ,从发震断层旋性、历史地震类比、地震活动图像变化和地震序列特征等多方面对昆仑山口西 8.1级地震的余震活动趋势进行了讨论 ,结果表明 :本次 8.1级地震的最大余震震级可能为 6级左右     

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF EARTHEN WASTE STORAGE STRUCTURES ON WATER RESOURCES IN IOWA1

ABSTRACT: Earthen waste storage structures (EWSS) associated with large confined (concentrated) animal feeding operations (CAFOs) were evaluated for their potential to impact water resources in Iowa. A representative sample of 34 EWSS from a digital database of 439 lagoons and basins permitted between 1987 and 1994 was analyzed. Eighteen percent (6 of 34) directly overlie alluvial aquifers that are used widely for potable water supply. Ninety‐four percent (29 of 31) were constructed below the water table based on EWSS depth data. At 65 percent of EWSS (22 of 34), 50 percent or more of the manure‐spreading area (MSA) has a water‐table depth less than 1.6 m. At 74 percent of EWSS (25 of 34), 90 percent or more of the MSA contains soil with vertical K exceeding 25.4 mm/hr. Seventy‐one percent (24 of 34) occur where 10 percent or less of the MSA is frequently flooded. No significant differences were found among leakage rates due to aquifer vulnerability class or surficial material. However, at least 50 percent of EWSS (14 of 28) leaked at rates significantly greater than 1.6 mm/d under the new construction standard. The estimated 5,000 unregulated CAFOs may have a greater potential to impact water resources in Iowa.     

基于RBF神经网络的火灾报警系统失效概率预测

报警系统失效主要包括漏报、误报,对系统进行失效概率预测,可以帮助判断设备质量优劣,评估系统效能。利用Matlab软件编程,通过神经网络预测失效概率。根据不同场所正在使用的火灾报警器的失效数据作为原始数据,归纳总结失效原因,建立事故树,结合专家打分法与模糊理论得到网络的输入值与输出值。通过网络训练,得到可以对系统失效概率进行预测的RBF神经网络,测算效率大幅提高。以70组不同品牌、用途的火灾报警系统作为算例,通过训练数据,最终达到输入底事件发生概率可直接输出顶事件发生概率的目的。结果表明,RBF神经网络相较于BP网络与事故树算得的失效概率具有更高的拟合度,RBF神经网络模型在进行系统失效概率预测时具有可靠性。     

ESTIMATION OF OPTIMAL YIELD IN YUN-LIN AREA OF TAIWAN USING DECISION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Ground water is a vital resource in the Yun-Lin area of Taiwan. A substantial amount is continuously extracted, creating adverse effects such as land subsidence and seawater intrusion. Minimizing these negative impacts depends on regulating the rate of groundwater withdrawal. An optimal yield must be determined to establish a sound water management policy. A wide range of safe yields for Yun-Lin have already been proposed based on constant hydrological and hydrogeological parameters. By extending the results of those investigations, this study presents a decision analysis model. The optimal yield concept is introduced as well. The proposed model incorporates a probability density function for rainfall recharge and a loss function, derived from fluctuations in the ground water table. Through decision analysis, the optimum yield is obtained by minimizing the expected value of the loss function. The optimal yield varies monthly because the probability density function is time dependent. Analysis results suggest that the cumulative optimum yield of ground water in the area is 1.26 × 10⁸ m³/year. If the probability distribution function for rainfall recharge is modified as new precipitation data become available, the above suggested yield may require revision in the future.     

GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND SIMULATED ANNEALING: FORMULATION AND COMPARISON1

ABSTRACT: Genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), two global search techniques, are coupled with MODFLOW, a commonly used groundwater flow simulation code, for optimal management of ground water resources under general conditions. The coupled simulation-optimization models allow for multiple management periods in which optimal pumping rates vary with time to reflect the changing flow conditions. The objective functions of the management models are of a very general nature, incorporating multiple cost terms such as the drilling cost, the installation cost, and the pumping cost. The models are first applied to two-dimensional maximum yield and minimum cost water supply problems with a single management period, and then to a multiple management period problem. The strengths and limitations of the GA and SA based models are evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained using linear programming, nonlinear programming, and differential dynamic programming. For the three example problems examined in this study, the GA and SA based models yield nearly identical or better solutions than the various programming methods. While SA tends to outperform GA in terms of the number of forward simulations needed, it uses more empirical control parameters which have significant impact on solution efficiency but are difficult to determine.     

MODELING THE FOREST HYDROLOGY OF WETLAND-UPLAND ECOSYSTEMS IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Few hydrological models are applicable to pine flat-woods which are a mosaic of pine plantations and cypress swamps. Unique features of this system include ephemeral sheet flow, shallow dynamic ground water table, high rainfall and evapotranspiration, and high infiltration rates. A FLATWOODS model has been developed specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape by integrating a 2-D ground water model, a Variable-Source-Area (VAS)-based surface flow model, an evapotranspiration (ET) model, and an unsaturated water flow model. The FLATWOODS model utilizes a distributed approach by dividing the entire simulation domain into regular cells. It has the capability to continuously simulate the daily values of ground water table depth, ET, and soil moisture content distributions in a watershed. The model has been calibrated and validated with a 15-year runoff and a four-year ground water table data set from two different pine flat woods research watersheds in northern Florida. This model may be used for predicting hydrologic impacts of different forest management practices in the coastal regions.     

粤西两类混合岩地质地球化学对比及与金成矿作用关系探讨

笔者在对粤西进行金银成矿作用研究的过程中,发现该地区存在两类不同成因的混合岩类,第一类为基底混合岩,第二类为断裂变质混合岩,两者在许多方面都存在很大差异。本文从它们的形成时间、分布空间、成岩方式、岩石学、矿物学、地球化学以及与金银等元素的成矿作用关系等方面进行了研究,分别阐述了两者的各自特点,并进行了对比,研究表明,基底混合岩化作用与金银的成矿作用关系主要表现为前者为后者提供了物质基础,而断裂变质混合岩化作用与金银的成矿作用关系则主要表现为前者或其邻近的构造带对后者的空间上的控制,其次才表现为成矿作用提供物质基础。     

青海省巴硬格莉沟—哇沿河多金属矿化带稳定同位素地质与成矿物质来源

通过对青海省巴硬格莉沟—哇沿河多金属成矿带大量矿石及围岩的硫、氢、氧、碳、铅等稳定同位素测试及分析 ,指出该区成矿物质主要来源于幔源物质与壳源物质的混合 ,成矿与矿带外围印支期 (局部包括少量早燕山期 )二长花岗岩及下元古界达肯大坂群大理岩、二云斜长片麻岩关系密切 ,成矿热液具有混合热液性质 ,主要为岩浆水与变质水的混合 ,并有一定量的大气降水加入。因此构造 (哇洪山断裂带及其派生构造 )、岩体 (印支及早燕山期二长花岗岩 )、地层 (达肯大坂群二云斜长片麻岩、大理岩 )“三位一体”是本区多金属找矿工作的有利部位 ,在今后的找矿勘探中应予以重视。