Designing an efficient adaptive cluster sample

The choice of neighborhood definition and critical value in adaptive cluster sampling is critical for designing an efficient survey. In designing an efficient adaptive cluster sample one should aim for a small difference between the initial and final sample size, and a small difference between the within-network and population variances. However, the two aims can be at odds with each other because small differences between initial and final sample size usually means small within-network variance. One way to help in designing an efficient survey is to think in terms of small network sizes since the network size is a function of both critical value and neighborhood definition. One should aim for networks that are small enough to ensure the final sample size is not excessively large compared with the initial sample size but large enough to ensure the within-network variance is a reasonable fraction of the population variance. In this study surveys that had networks that were two to four units in size were the most efficient.     

The African food crisis of 1982-1986*

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines. So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about "the African food crisis" have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana. This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.     

中欧可再生能源电力安全困境分析与合作路径

本文主要是为中欧可再生能源电力安全合作路径提供相关的政策建议。通过中欧双方可再生能源政策的相互比较,得到以下结论:1中国能源密度下跌的原因是节能减排政策的实施使用,不断提高能源效率和减排将是未来中国政府的核心任务;2把新能源外交与能源节约联系在一起,与欧盟之间加强中欧新能源合作,抓住机会引进新能源技术、设备和成果,以加强我们在新能源领域的竞争力;3建立战略目标和政策协调机制,以促进新能源外交政策的梳理,协同推进新能源外交战略目标的发展;4探索欧盟与中国的合作新机制,减少现有的国际机构或政府新成立的多边集团对短期商品价格冲击的影响,缓解短期的商品供应缺口和价格冲击;5在维护能源安全上,中欧双方有着共同的利益,也面临共同挑战。与欧盟在能源技术、能效管理、标准、法规、能源市场和监管等方面合作,推动中国节能和增效,对控制能源消费总量,实现能源生产和利用方式变革等都具有现实意义。     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

Progress of the scientific expedition and research on farmland ecosystem and food security in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

介绍第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究任务三生态系统与生态安全专题三“农田生态系统与粮食安全”科学考察背景、总体思路、研究内容、研究目标和取得的阶段性进展.该专题针对青藏高原地区农业生产中逐渐出现的局部农田生态系统结构失稳、功能失衡、地力衰退、作物品质下降、农残渐增等问题,在区域尺度上,从耕地肥力和土壤生物、农田植被、农业生产经营管理、作物产量品质和利用、农业气象条件等方面开展科学考察研究,在青藏高原农田生态系统相关生态环境参数的时空特征、分布规律与作物开发利用等考察研究方面取得阶段性重要进展,可为青藏高原农业生态系统可持续经营管理和粮食安全提供数据及科技支撑.(图1参90)     

基于生态系统服务的汾河源头区域生态安全格局优化

生态安全格局的优化是保障区域生态安全,维护生态系统稳定和提升生态系统服务的重要空间途径。以汾河源头区域为例,定量评估产水量、生境质量、土壤保持量三种生态系统服务,利用热点分析法识别重要的生态源地,考虑到河流在生态系统中复杂的作用机制,构建了两种模式的生态安全格局,并在此基础上提出了综合生态安全格局。研究结果表明:汾河源头区域共19个生态源地,占研究区面积的16.59%,三种模式分别构建了33条、42条、43条潜在生态廊道。网络结构评估结果表明:三种模式均可生成闭合的生态网络,优化后的生态廊道总长度为565.957 km,网络闭合度、节点连接率及网络连接度较高,成本比较小。此外,共识别了35个生态断裂点,明确了生态保护与修复建设的重点区域,以期为区域生态保护与修复规划提供空间指引。     

Field‐Scale Application of Three Types of Neural Networks to Predict Ground‐Water Levels1

Abstract: In this paper, a field‐scale applicability of three forms of artificial neural network algorithms in forecasting short‐term ground‐water levels at specific control points is presented. These algorithms are the feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP), radial basis networks (RBN), and generalized regression networks (GRN). Ground‐water level predictions from these algorithms are in turn to be used in an Optimized Regional Operations Plan that prescribes scheduled wellfield production for the coming four weeks. These models are up against each other for their accuracy of ground‐water level predictions on lead times ranging from a week to four weeks, ease of implementation, and execution times (mainly training time). In total, 208 networks of each of the three algorithms were developed for the study. It is shown that although learning algorithms have emerged as a viable solution at field scale much larger than previously studied, no single algorithm performs consistently better than others on all the criteria. On average, FFBP networks are 20 and 26%, respectively, more accurate than RBN and GRN in forecasting one week ahead water levels and this advantage drops to 5 and 9% accuracy in forecasting four weeks ahead water levels, whereas GRN posted a training time that is only 5% of the training time taken by that of FFBP networks. This may suggest that in field‐scale applications one may have to trade between the type of algorithm to be used and the degree to which a given objective is honored.     

Matching Food Security Analysis to Context: the Experience of the Somalia Food Security Assessment Unit

This case study reviews the experience of the Somalia Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) of operating a food security information system in the context of a complex emergency¹ In particular, it explores the linkages between selected features of the protracted crisis environment in Somalia and conceptual and operational aspects of food security information work. The paper specifically examines the implications of context characteristics for the establishment and operations of the FSAU field monitoring component and for the interface with information users and their diverse information needs. It also analyses the scope for linking food security and nutrition analysis and looks at the role of conflict and gender analysis in food security assessment work. Background data on the food security situation in Somalia and an overview of some key features of the FSAU set the scene for the case study. The paper is targeted at those involved in designing, operating and funding food security information activities.     

基于生态系统服务权衡的生态安全多情景决策

聚焦于成渝城市群生态安全格局识别的主题,耦合多源数据,运用相应的模型与算法对区域粮食生产、碳固存、产水、土壤保持、生境质量5类生态系统服务进行估算,在此基础上借助空间统计与分析厘清生态系统服务功能间的权衡/协同关系,并构建不同风险情景,明确未来区域发展的生态安全格局.结果 显示,2000～2015年,成渝城市群粮食生产...     

论组建三级环境监测网的必要性和重要性

论述了组建三级环境监测网的必要性和重要性及在环境监测中的作用,组建三级环境监测网是环境监测工作不断拓展和深化发展的需要。