Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model: Methodology, application and implications in a UK context

Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads).     

温度冲击试验设备实现途径及热负荷分析

结合试验指标要求,对温度冲击试验设备实现途径进行分析比较,选择两箱式作为试验设备的实现方式;对设备组成结构及制冷、加热流程进行阐述,并对温度冲击试验过程中两种制冷状态下的热负荷进行了分析计算。     

开发区环境影响评价中水污染源估算的探索

介绍几种水污染源的估算方法及其适用情况 ,通过实例分析了它们在开发区环境影响评价中的应用。     

Forest biomass accumulation is an important source of acidity to forest soils: Data from Swedish inventories of forests and soils 1955 to 2010

The input of acidity to Swedish forest soils through forestry between 1955 and 2010 is compared with the acid input from atmospheric deposition. Depending on region, input of acidity from forestry was the minor part (25–45%) of the study period’s accumulated acid input but is now the dominating source (140–270 mol_c ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). The net uptake of cations due to the increase in standing forest biomass, ranged between 35 and 45% of the forestry related input of acidity while whole-tree harvesting, introduced in the late 1990s, contributed only marginally (< 2%). The geographical gradient in acid input is reflected in the proportion of acidified soils in Sweden but edaphic properties contribute to variations in acidification sensitivity. It is important to consider the acid input due to increases in standing forest biomass in acidification assessments since it is long-term and quantitatively important.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01540-y.     

Using Multiple Chemical Criteria for Critical Loads of Acidity in Maritime Regions

Critical loads have become a well-establishedpart of the work programme of the UnitedNations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Conventionon Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). Thelinking of ecosystem response to deposition level is thecentral principal of the critical loads approach. Foreach ecosystem, a biological indicator is chosen, asuitable chemical criterion selected and a criticalchemical limit assigned. The Bc:Al ratio is the mostwidely used chemical criterion for setting criticalloads. However, critical loads based on this criterionare very sensitive to marine deposition. In regions whichreceive high depositions of marine-derived base cations,such as the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and the UnitedKingdom (UK), critical loads based on the Bc:Al criterionwill inevitably be high. Therefore, it is proposed thatcritical loads are estimated using multiple chemicalcriteria with appropriate critical limits to protect thechosen biological indicators. The range of publishedchemical criteria have been applied to the ROI and theUK. The chemical criterion corresponding to the mostsensitive critical load have been mapped and thecontribution of each to the final maps investigated. Thesimulations indicate that the most sensitive criteria forsetting critical loads are based on specifying critical Hor Al concentrations. However, the choice of critical limits andmodel parameters will ultimately effect the criticalloads. Therefore, it is important that appropriate criticallimits are chosen to protect the biological indicator andreceptor ecosystem from long-term damage.     

Critical Loads of Acidity for Forest Soils: Tentative Modifications

We reviewed the current methods for calculatingcritical loads of acidity for forest soils. The consequencesof four sets of assumptions concerning the soil modelstructure, parameter values and the critical loads criterionwere explored by comparing the values of the averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE) calculated for Finland withdeposition values for the year 1995. The AAE index is given inthe unit of deposition and is a measure of how far a region isfrom being protected in terms of fulfilling a certaincriterion, taking into account the size of the ecosystem areas.Using a critical limit for the molar ratio of theconcentrations of base cations to aluminium in soil solutiongave the lowest average accumulated exceedance. Assumingorgano-aluminium complexes and leaching of organic anions gaveAAE = 4 eq ha^-1 a^-1, which was close to the valueobtained with the standard approach used in Finland, assuminggibbsite equilibrium and no leaching of organic anions,yielding AAE = 5 eq ha^-1 a^-1. With a critical basesaturation limit, instead of the concentrations criterion, theAAE index was 17 eq ha^-1 a^-1. The highest averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE = 25 eq ha^-1 a^-1),corresponding to the lowest critical load, was obtained whenthe effects-based criterion (critical concentration or criticalbase saturation) was substituted with one restricting thedeterioration of the neutralizing capacity of the soil, ANC _le(crit) = 0. These tests illustrate the variabilityof the critical load values for acidity that can be introducedby changing the criterion or by varying the calculation method,without, however, representing the extreme values of criticalloads that could be derived.     

The Role of Mineral Weathering Rate Determinations in Generating Uncertainties in the Calculation of Critical Loads of Acidity and their Exceedance

Current legislation within Europe aimed at limitingecosystem damage resulting from inputs of atmosphericpollution is based on the critical load concept. Mineralweathering rates are central to the calculation ofcritical loads (acceptable levels) of acid deposition.The authors have undertaken a number of studies whichillustrate the complications and limitations inherent inpredicting mineral weathering rates and the implicationswhich these have for critical loads calculations andmapping. Calculated weathering rates and critical loadsfor two acid-sensitive parent materials (greywackes andgranites) are presented and are used to illustrate theimpact that uncertainty can have on critical loadexceedances. The results have obvious implications forportraying the uncertainties of critical loads to policy makers.     

The Link Between the Exceedance of Acidity Critical Loads for Freshwaters,Current Chemical Status and Biological Damage: A Re-Interpretation

Critical loads have for several years been employed bypolicymakers to aid in the development of strategies for aciddeposition abatement. They provide an effects-based approachwhereby an acid deposition flux greater than the critical load(known as critical load exceedance) implies that long-termharmful effects on a selected target organism will occur.Implicit in this approach are two assumptions: first, theexceedance of a critical load will harm the target organism,and second, the severity of biological impact is related to themagnitude of exceedance. However, static models give noindication of when the predicted damage might occur. One suchmodel, the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model, employs aseries of empirical relationships to derive the pre-industrial,baseline leaching rate of base cations from measured waterchemistry using the so-called `F-factor'. The SSWC model setsthe critical load relative to pre-industrial base cationleaching (a permanent buffer of acid deposition) and a selectedacid neutralizing capacity (ANC) value which corresponds with aknown likelihood of damage to a biological target organism.Here we interpret the meaning of critical load exceedance as aprediction of steady-state ANC, and explore the relationshipbetween exceedance of the critical load and current chemistry. We demonstrate that a critical loadexceedance with the SSWC model does not necessarily indicatethat the critical chemical threshold (zero ANC) has alreadybeen crossed, and there may be no correlation betweenexceedance and biological status. A reformulation of the SSWCmodel is proposed which provides a direct link between currentdeposition and current chemical conditions, and is thereforemore likely to indicate current biological damage. Thereformulation illustrates the discrepancy between currentchemical status and that predicted by the SSWC model atsteady-state, which is a function of the `F-factor'.     

A Novel Method for Mapping Critical Loads Across a River Network: Application to the River Dart,Southwest England

To date, estimates of freshwater critical loads have beenbased on a single sample site within a given area, in theUK the `most sensitive' surface water in each 10 km gridsquare. The critical loads obtained are thus highlydependent on the sites chosen, and at a relatively coarsespatial resolution. To produce a higher resolutioncritical load assessment, the PEARLS (Prediction ofAcidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale)procedure has been used to estimate critical loads acrossa large (248 km²), partially acid-sensitivecatchment in Southwest England. PEARLS utilises availablesoils and land-use databases, and sampled streamchemistry data, to derive characteristic runoffcompositions for a set of landscape types. Mixingequations are then used to calculate runoff chemistry,and subsequently critical loads, throughout the streamnetwork. Results show major spatial variability, withcritical loads lowest in streams draining peat-moorlandheadwaters, and generally increasing downstream asagricultural land contributes an increasing proportion ofrunoff. The 5th percentile freshwater critical loadfor the catchment is estimated at 0.29 keq H⁺ ha^-1yr^-1,and critical loads are exceeded for around 40% of totalstream length. The PEARLS methodology provides a novelopportunity to assess the spatial variability infreshwater critical loads, and to provide estimates ofexceedance at whole catchment scale. It has potentialapplication in the assessment of surface watersensitivity to acidification across wider areas in the UKand elsewhere.     

EVALUATION OF COASTAL PLAIN CONSERVATION BUFFERS USING THE RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Riparian buffers are increasingly important as watershed management tools and are cost‐shared by programs such as Conservation Reserve that are part of the USDA Conservation Buffer Initiative. Riparian buffers as narrow as 4.6m (15ft) are eligible for cost‐share by USDA. The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) provides a tool to judge water quality improvement by buffers and to set design criteria for nutrient and sediment load reduction. REMM was used for a Coastal Plain site to simulate 14 different buffers ranging from 4.6 m to 51.8 m (15 to 170 ft) with three different types of vegetation (hardwood trees, pine trees, and perennial grass) with two water and nutrient loads. The load cases were low sediment/low nutrient‐typical of a well managed agricultural field and low sediment/high nutrient‐typical of liquid manure application to perennial forage crops. Simulations showed that the minimum width buffer (4.6 m) was inadequate for control of nutrients under either load case. The minimum width buffer that is eligible for cost share assistance on a field with known water quality problems (10.7 m, 35 ft) was projected to achieve at least 50 percent reduction of N, P, and sediment in the load cases simulated.