沱江流域主要污染负荷预测及时空分布特征

耦合社会-经济因子探究工业点源和生活污染源污染负荷未来变化趋势,可为优化水环境规划和管理方案提供理论依据。选取沱江流域为研究区域,采用经济增长预测法、工业点源传统统计法、人口趋势灰色模型预测法和排污系数法分别计算了2020-2025年该区域28个县(市、区)的工业GDP值,工业点源废水排放量及主要污染负荷(COD、NH₃-N、TN、TP),农村与城镇人口及生活污染源的主要污染负荷,并利用ArcGIS技术探究了工业点源和生活污染源主要污染负荷空间分布特征。结果表明:2020-2025年,工业GDP值总体呈逐年增加趋势,而工业废水排放量总体呈逐年减少趋势,预计到2025年,流域工业GDP值将增加至2.52×10¹²元,而工业废水排放量将减少至0.64×10⁸ t。工业点源主要污染负荷表现为COD>NH₃-N>TN>TP。沱江流域总人口数与生活污染源污染负荷呈逐年增加趋势,其中城镇人口与生活污染源污染负荷呈逐年增加趋势,农村人口与生活污染源污染负荷呈逐年减少趋势,且城镇人口及生活污染源污染负荷增加量大于农村人口及生活污染源污染负荷减少量。城镇、农村生活污染源的主要污染负荷表现为COD>NH₃-N>TN>TP。工业点源和生活污染源主要污染负荷在空间上存在高度异质性。2025年,来自工业点源的主要污染负荷均呈上游较少,中、下游较多的特征;来自城市生活污染源的主要污染负荷均呈中、上游较多,下游较少的特征;来自农村生活污染源的主要污染负荷均呈中游较多,上、下游较少的特征。笔者提出耦合社会-经济因子预测流域污染负荷的方法可以推广到其他与社会经济指标相关联的流域工业点源、生活污染源污染负荷的预测研究中,以期为未来流域水环境管理与治理提供科学参考。     

三峡库区非点源污染氮磷负荷时空变化及其来源解析

三峡库区是我国重要水源保护区,也是长江流域经济迅速发展区域之一.非点源污染是库区水环境恶化的主要原因,因此研究库区非点源污染状况对于区域的生态安全以及可持续发展具有重要意义.研究采用改进输出系数模型,估算库区1990~2015年的非点源氮磷污染负荷总量,分析非点源氮磷污染的时空变化特征,并通过计算各污染源的贡献率确定主要污染来源.结果表明,氮磷污染负荷量在空间上均呈现库区腹地高,库尾次之,库首最低的分布特征;氮磷污染负荷总量在时间上均呈现先增加后降低的趋势,在2000年达到最高值,2015年降到最低值;各污染源对氮磷污染负荷量的贡献率按从大到小依此为：土地利用、农村生活以及畜禽养殖;其中,旱地这种土地利用类型是非点源氮磷污染的主要来源.     

长江流域污染负荷核算及来源分析

为研究长江流域污染物输出的时空变化特征和来源,将长江流域划分为114个排污单元,195个纳污河段,应用污染物“产生-排放-入河-消减-输出”模型,结合长江流域2004—2007年的社会经济、水文监测资料,利用朱坨、寸滩、宜昌、大通4个监测断面2004—2007年逐月的水量和水质数据,通过连续演算核算长江流域各河段的污染物输出过程,进行区间污染物输出平衡分析,估算出姚港断面污染物输出过程. 结果表明,各断面计算数据与实测数据相对误差不超过20%,模型及参数组合的可靠性较好. 点源对COD_Mn输出贡献较大,占56.4%;非点源对TN、TP的贡献大,分别占74.3%和92.1%. 从污染物输出分布来看,江西、四川、湖南、湖北四省占流域污染物输出总量的60%以上,贡献率较大,是流域污染物输出的重要区域.      

数字滤波法在点源和非点源污染负荷分割中的应用

以分辨流域点源和非点源污染负荷为研究目标,在傅立叶分析的基础上,提出了从污染负荷时间序列中分辨点源和非点源污染负荷的新方法——数字滤波法,探讨了数字滤波方程的参数与滤波次数的关系,并将该方法应用到东江流域COD_Mn负荷的分割上. 应用实例表明,分割的点源和非点源负荷系列曲线符合点源和非点源负荷的产生特点,使用者能够在污染负荷分割过程中通过滤波参数的选取比较方便地加入自己的经验. 一般取较大滤波参数时,只需要3次滤波就能得出较满意的结果.      

密云水库流域植被覆盖度变化对输沙量的影响

封闭流域中,泥沙的产生是多种因素相互作用,相互制约的结果,而在这些众多的环境影响因素中,植被是土壤侵蚀中最重要的环境控制因子,目前,植被覆盖度变化对输沙量的影响一直是区域生态环境研究中比较热门的话题。文章使用遥感（Remote Sensing（RS））、地理信息系统（Geographic In formmionSystem（GIS））与统计分析相结合的方法评价了密云水库流域内2个子流域出口处2002年至2005年植被覆盖度变化对输沙量的影响。密云水库流域多为山地,其降雨具有明显的季节性。本文的主要目的在于分析2002年至2005年植被覆盖度变化对流域输沙量的影响,并分析了植被覆盖度变化对气候改变及人类活动的综合影响,结果表明：在密云水库流域内,输沙量是降雨情况和人为因素引起的地表植被覆盖度变化情况的综合反映,人口增长、经济发展和城市化是密云水库流域内引起土地利用变化和地表植被覆盖度变化的主要驱动力。并且,输沙量可以被看作是一个很好的指标来定量分离出生物生理和人为的影响,并从中能够找出在流域生态系统中获得显著结果关键的临界点。研究结果对制定流域的合理开发和管理计划将有所帮助。     

Nutrient Loadings to Streams of the Continental United States from Municipal and Industrial Effluent1

Maupin, Molly A. and Tamara Ivahnenko, 2011. Nutrient Loadings to Streams of the Continental United States From Municipal and Industrial Effluent. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):950‐964. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00576.x Abstract: Data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency Permit Compliance System national database were used to calculate annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads to surface waters from municipal and industrial facilities in six major regions of the United States for 1992, 1997, and 2002. Concentration and effluent flow data were examined for approximately 118,250 facilities in 45 states and the District of Columbia. Inconsistent and incomplete discharge locations, effluent flows, and effluent nutrient concentrations limited the use of these data for calculating nutrient loads. More concentrations were reported for major facilities, those discharging more than 1 million gallons per day, than for minor facilities, and more concentrations were reported for TP than for TN. Analytical methods to check and improve the quality of the Permit Compliance System data were used. Annual loads were calculated using “typical pollutant concentrations” to supplement missing concentrations based on the type and size of facilities. Annual nutrient loads for over 26,600 facilities were calculated for at least one of the three years. Sewage systems represented 74% of all TN loads and 58% of all TP loads. This work represents an initial set of data to develop a comprehensive and consistent national database of point‐source nutrient loads. These loads can be used to inform a wide range of water‐quality management, watershed modeling, and research efforts at multiple scales.     

建筑结构活荷载标准与灾害荷载设防水平 --使用年限的影响

旨在提供不同使用年限建筑结构对应的活荷载水平.分析了结构可靠度理论的特点,揭示了设计使用年限是结构可靠度的时间特征.应根据不同设计使用年限活荷载的超越概率等于常规设计荷载超越概率的原则确定活荷的载标准;通过建立不同设计使用期、不同设计基准期与活荷载取值的关系,给出了不同使用年限对应活荷载与灾害荷载设防水平.     

Uncertainties in Large Scale Assessments of Critical Load Exceedances

In the 1999 Gothenburg protocol to the UN/ECE LRTAP Convention andin the negotiations for an EU acidification strategy the area withexceedances of critical loads has been the preferred measure forenvironmental impacts. The aim of this study has been to assessthe influence of the uncertainty and spatial variation of both thecritical loads and deposition values on the calculated area withexceedances of critical loads. This has been done on a nationalscale for Denmark and on the European scale based on the dataincluded in the RAINS model. It is demonstrated that includinguncertainty and spatial variation in exceedance calculations, ingeneral gives larger exceeded area for the critical load ofacidity, CL(A). The picture for the critical load of nutrientnitrogen, CL_nut(N), is more mixed because of the higherproportion of exceeded areas. A further point of interest is thepossibility of validating relationships between critical loadexceedances and observable damage based on large scale monitoringand model data. It is demonstrated that it will probably not bepossible to use exceedance calculations on European scale as basisfor validation exercises, linking exceedances to observable damage.     

Incorporation of Seasonal Nitrogen Dynamics within a Long-Term Acidification Model

This paper describes an application of the long termdynamic model, MAGIC, on a monthly timestep, enablingincorporation of the seasonal dynamics associated with abroad understanding of the ecosystem N cycle. The modelhas been applied to the Dargall Lane catchment in theGalloway region of Scotland where marked seasonal Ndynamics are apparent. Mean monthly proportions ofrainfall, runoff, deposition fluxes and net retention ofN are utilised to drive the model on a monthly timestep.Calibration of the model has successfully reproduced thepresent day observed seasonal variation in streamNO₃ and ANC. Prediction of recovery at the siteunder the second sulphur protocol indicates that,although mean annual ANC increases, mean monthly ANC doesnot rise above zero for all months of the year until2010.     

NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS AND YIELDS IN UNDEVELOPED STREAM BASINS OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Data from 85 sites across the United States were used to estimate concentrations and yields of selected nutrients in streams draining relatively undeveloped basins. Flow‐weighted concentrations during 1990–1995 were generally low with median basin concentrations of 0.020, 0.087, 0.26, 0.010, and 0.022 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for ammonia as N, nitrate as N, total nitrogen, orthophosphate as P, and total phosphorus, respectively. The flow‐weighted concentration of nitrate exceeded 0.6 mg/L in only three basins. Total nitrogen exceeded 1 mg/L in only four basins, and total phosphorus exceeded 0.1 mg/L in only four basins. The median annual basin yield of ammonia as N, nitrate as N, total nitrogen, orthophosphate as P, and total phosphorus was 8.1, 26, 86, 2.8, and 8.5 kilograms per square kilometer, respectively. Concentrations and yields of nitrate tended to be highest in northeastern and mid‐Atlantic coastal states and correlated well with areas of high atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Concentrations and yields of total nitrogen were highest in the southeastern part of the nation and in parts of the upper Midwest. In the northeast, nitrate was generally the predominant form of nitrogen, and in the southeast and parts of the upper Midwest, organic nitrogen was the dominant form. Concentrations of total phosphorus were generally highest in the Rocky Mountain and Central Plain states.