页岩气压裂作业人因失误结构化辨识方法研究

为提高页岩气压裂作业人因失误辨识结果的全面性和针对性,建立一种结构化的人因失误辨识方法。通过概括辨识阶段的作业流程,建立作业人员行为模型,概述作业人员的行为阶段。利用筛选出的引导词辨识行为阶段人因失误。将该方法应用于页岩气压裂过程的替液阶段。结果表明,用引导词能明确辨识方向,减少头脑风暴时间以及对专家知识的依赖;辨识过程的动态调整能改善认知可靠性,使更多人因失误模式(与传统CREAM方法相比)被辨识出来。     

Upstream Sediment‐Control Dams: Five Decades of Experience in the Rapidly Eroding Dahan River Basin,Taiwan

Sedimentation is emerging as a key issue in sustainable reservoir management. One approach to controlling reservoir sedimentation is to trap sediment in hydraulic structures upstream of the reservoir. In the 1,163‐km² catchment of the Dahan River (Taiwan) over 120 “sabo” dams were built to reduce sediment yield to Shihmen Reservoir. Built in 1963 for water supply, Shihmen has lost over 40% of its 290‐Mm³ storage capacity to sedimentation. Most of these upstream structures were small, but three had capacities >9 Mm³. Field measurements and historical data from the Water Resources Agency show most smaller dams had filled with sediment by 1976. The three largest were full or nearly so by 2007, when one (Barlin Dam) failed, releasing a pulse of 7.5 Mm³, most of its 10.4 Mm³ stored sediment downstream. The Central Range of Taiwan is rapidly eroding (denudation rates 3‐6 mm/yr), so geologically high loads make sediment problems manifest sooner. Even in other environments, however, eventually small dams built upstream of large reservoirs are likely to fill themselves, creating multiple small sediment‐filled reservoirs, some located in sites inaccessible to mechanical removal. Our analysis suggests sabo dams do not offer a long‐term basis for controlling reservoir sedimentation in such a high‐sediment yield environment. Sustainable solutions must somehow pass sediment downstream, as would be accomplished by a sediment bypass around Shihmen Reservoir, as now being studied.     

探讨ADC芯片引脚与印制板之间的固封方式

通过故障分析,将某产品高温老炼试验过程中发生的性能异常现象定位于ADC芯片部分引脚焊点脱焊。为验证芯片引脚与印制板之间的固封方式对焊点受力的影响,分别对"底部灌封+四角固封"及"底部灌封+四边固封"固封方式进行试验验证及随机振动、热应力分析。根据分析结果,高温浸泡时"底部灌封+四边固封"方式下,焊点受力均匀,最大热应力低于3MPa;而"底部灌封+四角固封"固封方式下的焊点最大热应力约5.1MPa,导致了焊点的蠕变疲劳失效。为减少高温浸泡时焊点的热应力,设计了"底部不灌胶,四边固封但一角不封口"的固封方式,并顺利通过相应的验证试验,证明这是一种较为妥当的固封方式。     

民机非包容性转子失效危害防护设计研究

民用飞机的发动机转子非包容性失效给飞机的安全运行带来巨大的风险,为了将这种转子非包容性失效可能带来的危害降至最小,需要合理的评估碎片的危害水平,以及采取合理的安全预防措施。尽管在FAA(Federal Aviation Administration)用于评估碎片危害水平的UEDDAM(Uncontained Engine Debris Damage Analysis Model)软件工具中采用了加强防护设计以减少碎片危害,但是没有对具体的分析流程和碎片能量衰减的计算模型进行说明。为此,在现有的碎片危害分析方法的基础上,考虑到碎片在侵彻过程中会有能量衰减,分析了降低碎片危害的三种安全预防措施,通过对比确定了加强防护设计对于降低碎片危害的重要意义及其分析的流程。通过对飞机结构中关键区域定义的理解,明确了在飞机的不同部位需要采取不同的加强防护设计,并详细介绍了整体加强防护设计和局部加强防护设计的流程。     

直升机机载产品环境鉴定试验故障分析

目的探究机载产品在鉴定试验阶段故障频发的原因,并改进机载产品研制流程中的不足之处。方法收集某型直升机机载产品50项环境鉴定试验故障,并对环境试验故障进行分析。结果环境试验故障主要为三防及振动试验故障,其故障发生的原因主要为材料及表面处理方法选用不当、设计缺陷和质量控制程序不够严格。结论针对该分析结果提出机载产品在设计过程中,需要通过尽早安排环境研制性试验、建立环境数据库、模拟仿真进行环境适应性设计和加强质量管理等措施,避免机载产品在鉴定试验阶段故障频发的问题。     

小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法研究

介绍了一种小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法。基于"计量评估"理论原则,针对可用于评价产品的特征量的试验数据,依次运用了数据样本子样的概率分布拟合检验方法、样本数据的一致性检验和离群值识别等统计学方法,最终使用经检验的特征量试验数据完成产品的可靠性评估。使用实例数据,应用评估方法,完成了一类典型产品的可靠性评估,其中特别指出的是,在实际应用过程中,应该尤其关注离群值的识别和剔除。实例证明,此方法可用于特征量明确的小子样成败型产品的可靠性评估。     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

在役管道防腐层的失效与维修

介绍了管道防腐层失效的原因和方式,指出水和氧气是防腐层失效的原因,含水量和含氧量决定腐蚀程度,提出对防腐层及时检查与修复等措施.