Bayesian analysis under ordered functions of parameters

Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed.     

Conservation Biology, Genetically Modified Organisms, and the Biosafety Protocol

Abstract:  Concerns have been raised regarding the potential adverse effects on biological diversity of the use of living modified organisms (LMOs, which are commonly known by similar terms such as genetically modified organisms). At the international level these concerns are addressed in part by an agreement known as the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety and include potential toxic effects of insect-resistant crops on nontarget organisms and potential ecological effects of gene flow from modified crops, fish, microorganisms, or insects to wild species or counterparts. We reviewed the protocol's main provisions, including those dealing with risk assessment and risk management, decision making on imports, documentation accompanying shipments, and liability resulting from damages caused by LMOs. A medium-term program of work has been adopted by the parties, which includes the potential contribution of conservation biologists to delivering capacity building, developing risk assessment guidance, evaluating mechanisms of potential ecological damages from LMOs, and other issues. Conservation biologists and other experts have opportunities to influence the negotiations and implementation of the protocol by providing inputs at meetings, offering expertise to governments and organizations, and participating in or developing relevant projects and initiatives. Involvement of conservation biologists in the implementation and further development of the protocol would contribute to its effectiveness.     

关于《湿地公约》中"湿地"定义的汉译

湿地公约文本使用的英语是英国英语，其使用的词汇与美国英语有微妙的区别，湿地国际(中国)官方文本对《湿地公约》中湿地定义的汉译不确切。文章讨论了英国英语和美国英语中与湿地有关的几个词语在含义上的差别，重译并解剖了几个典型的湿地定义。     

Metropolitan Open-Space Protection with Uncertain Site Availability

Abstract:  Urban planners acquire open space to protect natural areas and provide public access to recreation opportunities. Because of limited budgets and dynamic land markets, acquisitions take place sequentially depending on available funds and sites. To address these planning features, we formulated a two-period site selection model with two objectives: maximize the expected number of species represented in protected sites and maximize the expected number of people with access to protected sites. These objectives were both maximized subject to an upper bound on area protected over two periods. The trade-off between species representation and public access was generated by the weighting method of multiobjective programming. Uncertainty was represented with a set of probabilistic scenarios of site availability in a linear-integer formulation. We used data for 27 rare species in 31 candidate sites in western Lake County, near the city of Chicago, to illustrate the model. Each trade-off curve had a concave shape in which species representation dropped at an increasing rate as public accessibility increased, with the trade-off being smaller at higher levels of the area budget. Several sites were included in optimal solutions regardless of objective function weights, and these core sites had high species richness and public access per unit area. The area protected in period one depended on current site availability and on the probabilities of sites being undeveloped and available in the second period. Although the numerical results are specific for our study, the methodology is general and applicable elsewhere.     

Extinction Rate Estimates for Plant Populations in Revisitation Studies: Importance of Detectability

Abstract:  Many researchers have obtained extinction-rate estimates for plant populations by comparing historical and current records of occurrence. A population that is no longer found is assumed to have gone extinct. Extinction can then be related to characteristics of these populations, such as habitat type, size, or species, to test ideas about what factors may affect extinction. Such studies neglect the fact that a population may be overlooked, however, which may bias estimates of extinction rates upward. In addition, if populations are unequally detectable across groups to be compared, such as habitat type or population size, comparisons become distorted to an unknown degree. To illustrate the problem, I simulated two data sets, assuming a constant extinction rate, in which populations occurred in different habitats or habitats of different size and these factors affected their detectability. The conventional analysis implicitly assumed that detectability equalled 1 and used logistic regression to estimate extinction rates. It wrongly identified habitat and population size as factors affecting extinction risk. In contrast, with capture-recapture methods, unbiased estimates of extinction rates were recovered. I argue that capture-recapture methods should be considered more often in estimations of demographic parameters in plant populations and communities.     

计算机辅助确定外因火灾位置方法

系统介绍用计算机辅助确定矿井外因火灾位置方法的原理,给出该方法的具体步骤,剖析其定性分析、定量分析和定量分析结果评价三大步骤中的各技术关键,并借助一个实例验证了该方法实用的可行性     

陕西省黄土崩塌隐患区宅基地选址方案研究

在对黄土崩塌所造成的伤亡、损失及灾害成因的调查的基础上,结合对黄土地形地貌、颗粒结构、岩土特征和力学特性的研究分析,提出了在黄土高原区内黄土崩塌隐患区居民宅基选址应注意的问题,变被动防灾为主动预防,这对地处黄土高原区山西、陕西、甘肃等省的居民宅基选址具有重要的指导意义和参考价值。     

Use of Airborne Thermal Imagery to Detect and Monitor Inshore Oil Spill Residues During Darkness Hours

/ Trials were conducted using an airborne video system operating in the visible, near-infrared, and thermal wavelengths to detect two known oil spill releases during darkness at a distance of 10 nautical miles from the shore in St. Vincent's Gulf, South Australia. The oil spills consisted of two 20-liter samples released at 2-h intervals, one sample consisted of paraffinic neutral material and the other of automotive diesel oil. A tracking buoy was sent overboard in conjunction with the release of sample 1, and its movement monitored by satellite relay. Both oil residues were overflown by a light aircraft equipped with thermal, visible, and infrared imagers at a period of approximately 1 h after the release of the second oil residue. Trajectories of the oil residue releases were also modeled and the results compared to those obtained by the airborne video and the tracking buoy. Airborne imagery in the thermal wavelengths successfully located and mapped both oil residue samples during nighttime conditions. Results from the trial suggest that the most advantageous technique would be the combined use of the tracking beacon to obtain an approximate location of the oil spill and the airborne imagery to ascertain its extent and characteristics.KEY WORDS: Airborne video; Thermal imagery; Global positioning; Oil-spill monitoring; Tracking beacon     

平行双样对天然气中硫化物采样的质量控制

为了研究平行双样对天然气中硫化物采样质量控制措施的可靠性,对现场采集的８对硫化物平行样用对氨基二甲基苯胺光度法进行测定。对测定结果及相对偏差进行Ｗ（Ｓｈａｐｉｒｏ－Ｗｉｌｋ）检验,检验结果说明平行双样相对偏差服从正态分布,数据的一致性较好,说明用平行双样对采样进行质量控制是可行的。文中还用Ｇｒｕｂｂｓ检验法计算出在该实验条件下测定天然气中硫化物平行双样的相对偏差质量控制范围为１．９３％±１２．５％。