行为科学关于安全控制的研究述评与未来研究展望

从行为科学的视角,探讨人的因素在事故发生过程中的作用,取得了许多重要的进展。笔者从个体因素、群体因素、组织因素以及跨水平的多因素交互作用等4个方面总结了行为科学关于安全控制的相关研究,分析了各种因素对安全绩效的影响。在此基础上,提出一个包含个体、群体和组织因素在内的整合性事故发生路径模型,指出行为科学关于安全控制的未来研究方向,尤其是需要深入揭示一些高阶变量,如领导、组织学习等对安全生产的影响机制,以及采用跨层次的方法来探讨组织因素、群体因素和个体因素在安全生产过程中的交互作用。     

Human and organizational factors in Chinese hazardous chemical accidents: a case study of the ‘8.12’ Tianjin Port fire and explosion using the HFACS-HC

Human and organizational factors have been proven to be the prime causes of Chinese hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs). A modified version of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), namely the HFACS-Hazardous Chemicals (HC), was developed to identify the human factors involved in Chinese HCAs. The ‘8.12’ Tianjin Port fire and explosion, the costliest HCA in recent years, was reanalyzed using this framework, and the results were compared with the official accident inquiry report to determine their differences related to the identification of human and organizational factors. The study revealed that interacting human factors from different levels in Ruihai Company led to this catastrophe, and the inquiry report had limitations in the identification of human factors and the guidance for similar accident prevention. This study showed the applicability of the HFACS-HC in HCA analyses as well as the necessity to recommend this approach for future HCA investigations.     

Reassessment of the Use of Fire as a Management Tool in Deciduous Forests of Eastern North America

Prescribed burning is increasingly being used in the deciduous forests of eastern North America. Recent work suggests that historical fire frequency has been overestimated east of the prairie–woodland transition zone, and its introduction could potentially reduce forest herb and shrub diversity. Fire‐history recreations derived from sedimentary charcoal, tree fire scars, and estimates of Native American burning suggest point‐return times ranging from 5–10 years to centuries and millennia. Actual return times were probably longer because such records suffer from selective sampling, small sample sizes, and a probable publication bias toward frequent fire. Archeological evidence shows the environmental effect of fire could be severe in the immediate neighborhood of a Native American village. Population density appears to have been low through most of the Holocene, however, and villages were strongly clustered at a regional scale. Thus, it appears that the majority of forests of the eastern United States were little affected by burning before European settlement. Use of prescribed burning assumes that most forest species are tolerant of fire and that burning will have only a minimal effect on diversity. However, common adaptations such as serotiny, epicormic sprouting, resprouting from rhizomes, and smoke‐cued germination are unknown across most of the deciduous region. Experimental studies of burning show vegetation responses similar to other forms of disturbance that remove stems and litter and do not necessarily imply adaptation to fire. The general lack of adaptation could potentially cause a reduction in diversity if burning were introduced. These observations suggest a need for a fine‐grained examination of fire history with systematic sampling in which all subregions, landscape positions, and community types are represented. Responses to burning need to be examined in noncommercial and nonwoody species in rigorous manipulative experiments. Until such information is available, it seems prudent to limit the use of prescribed burning east of the prairie–woodland transition zone. Reevaluación del Uso de Fuego como Herramienta de Manejo en Bosques Deciduos de América del Norte     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.     

Mainstreaming investments in watershed services to enhance water security: Barriers and opportunities

Watersheds are under increasing pressure worldwide, as expanding human activities coupled with global climate change threaten the water security of people downstream. In response, some communities have initiated investments in watershed services (IWS), a general term for policy-finance mechanisms that mitigate diverse watershed threats and promote ecosystem-based adaptation. Here, we explore the potential for increasing the uptake and impact of IWS, evaluating what limits its application and how institutional, financial, and informational barriers can be overcome. Our analysis complements the growing literature on individual programs by identifying levers at regional and global scales. We conclude that mainstreaming IWS as a cost-effective strategy alongside engineered approaches will require advances that (i) lower institutional barriers to implementation and participation in IWS; (ii) introduce structural market changes and standards of practice that account for the value of watersheds’ natural capital; (iii) develop practical tools and metrics of IWS costs and benefits; and (iv) share success stories of replicable institutional and financial models applied in varied contexts.     

Time‐based differences in the effects of positive and negative affectivity on perceived supervisor support and organizational commitment among newcomers

Building on the broaden‐and‐build theory and research on the negativity bias, this study examines how trait affectivity, as a stable predisposition predicting the pattern of emotional responding, shapes newcomers' perceptions of supervisor support and experience of organizational commitment. Using latent growth modeling and data collected at four points in time from newcomers (N = 158), we found the initial level of perceived supervisor support to mediate a negative relationship between negative affectivity and the level of commitment. Moreover, although newcomers experienced a general decrease in perceived supervisor support and a related decrease in commitment, those with high positive affectivity experienced a weaker decrease in perceived supervisor support, which led to a weaker decrease in commitment. Incidentally, positive affectivity was also positively related to the initial level of commitment. Two post hoc studies indicated that positive and negative affectivity exerted their effects controlling for state affect and replicated the relationship between change in perceived support and commitment. We discuss how these findings inform our understanding of trait affectivity's influence on newcomers' work attitudes.     

Diversity and organizational innovation: The role of employee involvement

This study examined the interactive effects of workplace diversity and employee involvement on organizational innovation. Using a sample of 182 large Canadian organizations, we found a three‐way interaction between level of employee involvement, variation in involvement, and racioethnic diversity on innovation. In organizations with high levels of employee involvement, high variation in involvement was associated with higher involvement levels among racioethnic minorities, resulting in a stronger association between diversity and innovation. Furthermore, the association between White employee involvement and innovation was significantly more positive under the condition of high involvement among racioethnic minority group members. Thus, ensuring high levels of involvement among members of historically marginalized racioethnic groups enhances the innovation effects of employee empowerment systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptation of Russian agriculture to climatic variability: The role of federal and provincial policies

This paper draws on the example of Tyumen Province, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, to explore the role that policies play in hindering agricultural producers’ adaptation to climate change. Its objective is to contribute to a better understanding of maladaptation at the policy level. The discourse analysis method is used to explain perceptions of climate variability in Tyumen Province and its impact on agriculture. The document analysis method is used to assess agricultural policy in Tyumen Province and its implications for producers’ adaptation to climate change. The results suggest that although agricultural producers and policymakers are acutely aware both of climate variability and the resulting loss of agricultural output, provincial agricultural policy generally fails to encourage better adaptation by agricultural producers or to support their greater economic security. Instead, it primarily focuses on meeting food production targets and thus limits the producers’ own independent moves towards adaptation. The phenomenon of maladaptation at the policy level is discussed in consideration of the general public’s and the authorities’ awareness of climate change and climate variability, and the role of science in shaping this awareness.     

Adaptation pathways in planning for uncertain climate change: Applications in Portugal,the Czech Republic and the Netherlands

Adaptation pathways are developed to design adaptive policies to handle climate change uncertainty. Use of this tool varies across planning practices and adaptation challenges and adjusting the tool to particular practices can foster its adequate use. To gain insight into the use of adaptation pathways, we compared four initiatives (one each in Portugal and the Czech Republic and two in the Netherlands) with regard to design choices made. We found six design choices which need to be considered when adjusting adaptation pathways. Design choices about the geographic scale, inclusion of sectors, the generation and delineation of adaptation options, specification of possible pathways, the related performance metrics and the type of assessment are interdependent, but they are also influenced by contextual aspects. Analysis of the institutional diversity, planning culture and framing shows that the use of adaptation pathways is flexible enough to be adjusted for diverging planning practices. However, the tool is best suited to deliver local adaptation solutions, and adequate use depends on consensus about the adaptation problem, setting objective thresholds and determining uncertainty about future change. We conclude that understanding the customised use of tools for local planning practices is essential for adaptive policy design.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.