突发事件应急决策模拟演练设计理论框架与技术要点

突发事件应急决策模拟演练是提升参演主体应急处置能力的重要途径，该类演练的设计开发需要系统性的理论与技术进行规范和引导。从实践归纳的角度，将该类演练的设计划分为演练内容设计和演练形式开发2部分，详尽地分析演练内容设计中的4个核心要素（主题与目标、演练情景、演练任务和目标能力）和演练形式开发中的3项关键技术（控制流程、任务导入与方案输出、信息技术平台）。此外，着重介绍了突发事件应急决策模拟演练设计开发过程中容易混淆的几组概念关系，即“情景构建与应急演练的关系”、“应急预案与应急演练的关系”、“演练内容与演练形式的关系”、“演练中‘演’与‘练’的关系”。     

太湖湖西洞天福地

太湖湖西苏皖浙交界地域 ,晚古生代—早中三叠世纪沉积的石灰岩发育 ,厚度大 ,质纯 ,加上滨临太湖 ,具有优越的地理和气候环境 ,因而形成数十个岩溶洞穴。著名者有 :宜兴南部善卷洞、张公洞、灵谷洞、幕蠡洞 ,广德北部太极洞和湖洲以北黄龙古洞和黄龙宫等洞天福地     

Cross-sectional survey methods to assess retrospectively mortality in humanitarian emergencies

Since the rates and causes of mortality are critical indicators of the overall health of a population, it is important to evaluate mortality even where no complete vital statistics reporting exists. Such settings include humanitarian emergencies. Experience in cross-sectional survey methods to assess retrospectively crude, age-specific, and maternal mortality in stable settings has been gained over the past 40 years, and methods appropriate to humanitarian emergencies have been developed. In humanitarian emergencies, crude and age-specific mortality can be gauged using methods based on the enumeration of individuals resident in randomly selected households—frequently referred to as a household census. Under-five mortality can also be assessed through a modified prior birth history method in which a representative sample of reproductive-aged women are questioned about dates of child births and deaths. Maternal mortality can be appraised via the initial identification of maternal deaths in the study population and a subsequent investigation to determine the cause of each death.     

Knowledge creation and reliable decision-making in complex emergencies

This paper examines how the creation of knowledge and the location of decision-making authority within relief organisations influence coordination. Information was collected from the headquarters of international non-governmental organisations in 2003, as well as from Darfur and Khartoum, Sudan, in 2005 and 2007, respectively. Relief organisations rely on quality information dissemination between the field and headquarters. Yet, reporting from the field often is overloaded with misplaced precision, making it difficult for managers at headquarters to grasp the key issues. A high turnover rate among international field officers and a lack of inclusion of local staff and partners prevent the development of accumulated knowledge. Furthermore, most relief organisations have a centralised decision-making system. The creation of 'collective-meaning structures', based on reliable information on all decision-making levels, opens the way to the decentralisation of decision-making to field officers engaged with inter-organisational coordination structures. In sum, more efficient and reliable coordination between organisations relies on improved decision-making systems within each organisation.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

天然气供气业务风险分析与应急预案设计

天然气市场需求量的大幅度增加与国内天然气供给不足造成的供需不平衡,给天然气供气业务带来了极大的挑战。根据近两年来天然气供应面临的危机,分别对天然气供气产业链的上、中、下游的突发事件风险进行分析;并针对供气业务中断带来的风险,从突发事件分级、应急处置流程等两个关键要素着手对应急预案进行优化。该研究对完善天然气供气突发事件应急预案、有效快速应对突发事件提供了参考和指导。     

国外化工企业的绿色管理

总结了国外成功开展绿色管理的化工企业在实施绿色管理过程中的主要做法、经验,得出了企业发展绿色管理的几点启示,指出我国化工企业在实施绿色管理方面应该借鉴国外的成功经验。强调节能减排是绿色管理不同于环境管理的重点。     

基于突变理论的非常规突发事件下个体行为状态研究

针对非常规突发事件下个体行为状态,考虑物质环境、社会环境和个体属性等因素,建立评价影响个体行为状态的3级指标体系;在分析非常规突发事件下个体行为状态突变特征的基础上,建立非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的尖点突变模型;采用突变级数法对4类非常规突发事件进行实例分析,得到4类突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度。实例表明,不同类型非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度不同;重大自然灾害和公共卫生类型突发事件中个体行为所受影响最大,社会安全事件次之,事故灾难突发事件中最小。     

中国石油天然气集团公司海外防恐安全培训

自"9.11"以来,国际非传统安全形势日益复杂,宗教冲突和政治动荡相互交错,恐怖主义活动愈演愈烈,严重威胁着中国石油天然气集团公司海外项目员工人身和资产安全。为有效提升海外项目防恐安全管理水平,切实提高海外员工防恐意识和技能,保障海外项目员工人身和资产安全,负责海外防恐安全管理的国际事业部(海外防恐安全和HSE办公室)认真研究了海外员工的防恐安全培训需求,在充分调研国内外安保培训机构的基础上,组建了专业化的培训团队,开发了针对性的培训课件,建立了一套完善的培训和考核模式,截止目前共培训31000多名海外员工,积累了较为丰富的防恐安全培训经验。     

海上突发环境事件生态系统服务损失评估进展

评估海上突发环境事件对生态系统服务造成的损失,对落实生态损害赔偿制度、保证生态系统服务与功能正常发挥具有重要意义.基于生态系统服务的定义,明确了生态系统服务损失的内涵,是除直接经济损失外,生态系统产生的供给、调节、文化和支持等公益服务的损失.阐述了国内外关于海洋生态系统服务损失评估的研究现状及实践,重点介绍了美国自然资源损害评估（NRDA）体系中生境等价分析法和资源等价分析法的基本假设与主要步骤,通过等价分析法确定生态恢复工程的规模,并结合生态系统服务价值评估的研究成果确定损失.我国学者借鉴NRDA体系等开展了大量研究,提出环境损害鉴定评估、溢油生态损害评估等方法,并在"塔斯曼海"号溢油、蓬莱19-3油田溢油等典型案例中进行应用及优化,比较了不同评估方法差异及影响因素.评估损失必须首先确定事件对海洋生态的影响范围与影响程度、受体类型及敏感度等关键因子,可采用现场监测、遥感及扩散模型等方法确定影响范围与程度,在实践中一般需要综合应用、互相补充.从管理和技术层面,分析了我国海上突发环境事件生态系统服务损失评估研究现状与应急管理需求的差距,在此基础上建议:①建立健全法律体系,细化生态损害评估的责任、内容和要求,明确将生态系统服务损失纳入生态损害赔偿;②构建技术评估体系,根据化学品性质、生态系统类别及特征等,分类出台一系列技术标准;③建议在遥感遥测技术、化学品泄漏数值模型等方面进一步开展研究,提高准确度和时效性.