Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

基于爆破损伤的强制放顶爆破参数设计与应用

通过总结综采工作面坚硬顶板深孔爆破强制放顶成功案例,得出以爆破裂隙区半径为强制放顶爆破参数设计的不合理性,提出以爆破损伤范围为依据进行爆破参数计算。研究以国投新集二矿210108工作面为依托,通过爆破振动监测,回归得到综采面深孔爆破振动速度传播衰减规律,由此导出炮孔周围岩体内的质点振动峰值速度衰减规律。计算结果表明,炮孔直径75mm、装药直径63mm的深孔爆破可以在周围岩体中形成半径为7.631m重度损伤区,解释了炮孔间距大于10m仍能有着良好爆破效果的原因;设计最大孔底间距15.2m的爆破参数,并成功进行了现场应用,验证了计算方法的可靠性,为类似工程爆破参数设计提供了一个新方法。     

污水厂曝气节能智能优化控制系统

针对国内大部分污水厂现有曝气控制中存在着溶解氧浓度波动大、曝气量冗余大、曝气单元能耗高等问题,提出曝气节能智能优化系统,该系统通过获得A/O工艺实时的在线数据不断进行模拟计算,然后按照生化池进水的污染物负荷状况,以曝气能耗最小为目标函数来获取最优的DO设定值及其PI控制器的参数Kp、Ki。该智能优化系统在沥滘污水厂的实际应用情况表明:该系统在盫こ鏊实那榭鱿拢唤鎏岣吡讼低车目垢汉沙寤髂芰Γ苯档土?曝气能耗。     

Temporal scaling behavior of human-caused fires and their connection to relative humidity of the atmosphere

It has been found that many natural systems are characterized by scaling behavior. In such systems natural factors dominate the event dynamics. But in countries with high population density such as China and Japan, more than 95% of the forest fire disasters are caused by human activities. Furthermore, with the development of society, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area is becoming more and more populated, and the forest fire is much connected with urban fire. Therefore exploring the scaling behavior of fires dominated by human-related factors is very challenging. The present paper explores the temporal scaling behavior of forest fires and urban fires in Japan. Our findings point out that although the human factors are the main cause, both the forest fires and urban fires exhibit time-scaling behavior. Similar distribution law characterizes the relative humidity.     

石化企业储罐大呼吸损耗影响因素的分析

储罐是石化行业挥发性有机物(VOCs)无组织排放源的重要组成部分。采用美国环保署推荐的储罐VOCs排放量计算公式,以云南某炼化企业的典型热渣油立式固定顶罐以及北京某石化企业的汽油外浮顶罐和甲苯内浮顶罐为基准案例进行储罐大呼吸损耗量的计算,考察了其影响因素,总结出影响储罐大呼吸损耗的关键参数,并有针对性地提出降耗措施。结果表明:影响固定顶罐大呼吸损耗的关键参数为气相分子摩尔质量、日平均液体表面温度和年周转量;影响外浮顶罐大呼吸损耗的首要关键参数为罐壁黏附系数,其次为年周转量和有机液体的密度;影响内浮顶罐大呼吸损耗的首要关键参数为罐壁黏附系数,其次为年周转量和固定顶支撑柱数量。     

太湖水质参数中小尺度空间结构特征

经济的发展和人们生活水平的提高，造成了太湖的富营养化和生态环境的严重破坏。太湖的水质污染目前已严重影响了整个流域的可持续发展，并对人们的身体健康造成潜在的危害。治理太湖、保护太湖已成为人们刻不容缓的任务。了解湖泊水质参数空间结构特征是进行太湖环境评价的重要前提，也是合理治理太湖的重要基础。地统计学的出现为精确描述湖泊水质参数空间结构提供了有效的工具。应用地统计学技术对太湖3种水质参数进行了空间结构分析，结果显示，污染物集中在湖岸线附近不易向湖中央扩散，各水质参数空间分布差异性较大，且空间结构特征极为相似，不同尺度之间有差异性。同时，由于采样密度和范围的限制，更细微和更大尺度的空间结构特征尚不能得以表述。最后，还讨论了太湖水质参数的空间结构变异性。     

快速生物活性测定方法的仪器化

好氧活性污泥法在污水处理中应用广泛.保持污泥活性,是良好处理效果的前提,也是运行控制的主要目标.活性污泥的呼吸速率,或者氧利用速率(oxygen uptake rate,OUR),能够指示污泥的活性变化.本研究开发的快速生物活性测定仪(rapid biological activity tester,RBAT),能够快速测定污泥活性参数,满足工程设计与运行的迫切要求.     

昆承湖水质参数空间分布特征研究

为了分析湖泊水质参数的空间分布特征,在面积为17.57km2的昆承湖布设水质监测点18个,运用基于Arc GIS的地统计学组件分析了湖区水质参数的空间分布特性.结果表明,昆承湖水质参数的空间结构变异性是客观存在的,各主要水质参数都具有块金效应;对昆承湖水质参数进行克立格插值,并绘制空间分布图,发现湖区各主要水质参数的空间异质性比较明显.其中,DO浓度呈西高东低之势;TN和NH4 -N的高浓度区主要集中在湖东北部和东部;TP的变化最为复杂,高浓度区主要分布在东北部和湖西的部分区域;Chla除在湖心较小区域出现低值,在整个湖区浓度均较高.     

工业建设项目竣工环境保护验收问题初探

结合工业项目竣工验收中的常见问题,就敏感点噪声的监测方法、厂界噪声监测布点、等效排气筒参数计算、监测期间生产负荷计算等问题,进行探索。     

加速并行遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

针对标准遗传算法中存在早熟收敛、后期收敛速度慢以及解精度低的问题,结合正交试验设计和元胞自动机模型,提出了一种改进的遗传算法--加速并行遗传算法(APGA).APGA利用正交试验设计确定较好的初始种群,利用元胞自动机模型固有的并行计算能力设计并行遗传算法,借助元胞信息的动态性和多元性实现正交加速过程.该方法不仅能加快遗传算法的收敛速度,而且能提高遗传算法的搜索效率和解的精度,适用于求解复杂的非线性优化问题.APGA用于暴雨强度公式参数的优化实例结果表明,该算法是有效和可行的.