MODERNIZATION OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES1

The National Weather Service is nearing the conclusion of a five year period of transition from index type catchment modelling to the use of conceptual hydrologic models. The decision to make this technological change was based on an extensive research project in which various catchment models were tested in a wide variety of basins and their strong and weak points ascertained. This project is described. Some of the problems involved in the changeover, which are discussed, are practical parameter optimization methods, computer requirements for the more complex technology, data requirements, fitting of the catchment model to major river systems, training of personnel and staffing problems.     

锂离子电池热特性参数测量方法研究

目的针对深海等极端环境下载人潜水器锂离子动力电池热管理问题,对10 Ah三元镍钴锰锂离子电池展开热特性参数测量方法研究,为锂离子电池热管理建模提供理论依据。方法首先利用精密测量仪器并结合传热学原理对电池导热系数进行计算,其次基于电池温度与环境温度跟随的控制策略搭建高精度的绝热实验箱。绝热环境下,电池的实际产热将会完全转化为自身的内能,与外界之间没有热量交换。在绝热实验箱中利用脉冲测试方法辨识三元镍钴锰锂离子电池的比热容。结果热物性参数测量结果具有较高准确性,带入热模型中的温度计算结果与实际温度测量结果绝对误差不超过0.5℃,平均相对误差为0.0184。结论基于实验方法得到的电池热特性参数能够反映锂离子电池的热状态,测量结果与实际值误差在可接受范围之内。     

无间隙原子钢电解钝化工艺的研究

通过对无间隙原子钢电解钝化工艺的研究,确定了钝化液的配方、钝化电流、钝化时间和钝化温度等工艺条件,从而得出此钝化工艺的最佳工艺参数,增强了钝化膜的耐腐蚀性能,并减少了环境污染.     

马斯京根洪水演算模型的改进--兼论其参数的蚁群算法率定

针对马斯京根洪水演算模型的近似性问题，用曲线积分法改进了原模型中时段流量的简单算术平均值法，并利用连续性空间优化问题的蚁群算法对改进的马斯京根洪水演算模型进行参数最优估计，使演算流量更加接近实际。     

滚筒设计参数与粉尘爆炸率关系的数学模型

综采工作面的粉尘主要是由采煤机截割煤炭而产生,螺旋滚筒作为采煤机的工作装置,直接与煤岩接触,参与落煤和装煤的过程,其结构参数、工作参数直接决定着机器工作时的产尘量大小,影响工作面的粉尘浓度。因此,笔者通过简化与假设,在粉尘检测数据的基础上,选取滚筒直径,螺旋头数,截线间距,每线齿数和切屑厚度为自变元,提出了工作面粉尘爆炸概率的确定方法,建立了滚筒设计参数与采煤工作面粉尘爆炸率之间关系的数学模型,为分析机械参数与安全之间的关系和影响、为合理地设计滚筒及其采煤机的参数、减小采煤工作面的粉尘、降低粉尘爆炸率、提高煤炭生产的安全提供理论依据。     

斜拉桥破损诊断技术的研究

针对钢筋腐蚀、疲劳、预应力松弛和桥梁整体倾斜或变形所引起的斜拉桥局部破损,以使用了15年的永和斜拉桥为研究对象,对斜拉桥破损诊断技术进行了研究,对该桥的破损位置进行了定位,对其破损程度进行了评价.利用有限元分析和现场振动测试结果,对破损前后的模态参数进行分析,提取了对破损状况较敏感的模态曲率作为斜拉桥破损诊断的参数,并从模态参数中选取部分点的分量,导出了可以指示斜拉桥桥面(主梁)大概损伤位置的损伤指标Id,可用以识别出斜拉桥发生破损的区段及破损程度.研究成果为永和斜拉桥的养护维修方案提供了技术支持.     

基于频率下降率的结构损伤自适应神经网络识别

笔者探讨了动量系数和学习率自适应调整的神经网络算法及结构裂纹损伤识别特征参数的选取,提出以反映结构损伤位置和程度的频率下降率作为结构裂纹损伤识别的特征参数,利用有限元网格细化法对结构裂纹损伤进行数值模拟,获取训练样本数据,通过自适应神经网络对结构裂纹损伤问题进行识别研究。从结构裂纹损伤识别实例的结果中可以看出,采用频率下降率和自适应神经网络技术对结构裂纹进行损伤识别分析具有较高的精度和可靠性。     

钢筋混凝土叠合梁斜截面承载力数值模拟与影响因素分析

钢筋混凝土叠合梁的斜截面承载力,从理论上定量分析存在着较多困难,但数值模拟分析是一种直接有效的途径。笔者对33根尺寸、配筋相同,叠合参数及混凝土强度不同的无腹筋叠合梁和1根整浇对比梁用ABAQUS进行了非线性有限元数值模拟,并且分析了叠合参数以及混凝土强度对叠合梁斜截面承载力的影响,给出了斜截面承载力的计算公式。该分析结果表明,叠合梁的斜截面承载力是整浇梁的1.00~1.14倍。所获分析结果对于促进叠合梁斜截面理论的深入研究、指导叠合梁在工程中的合理设计以及类似的数值模拟分析均有一定的参考价值。     

APPLICATION OF PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR CALIBRATING TANK MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Many automatic calibration processes have been proposed to efficiently calibrate the 16 parameters involved in the four‐layered tank model. The Multistart Powell and Stuffed Complex Evolution (SCE) methods are considered the best two procedures. Two rainfall events were designed to compare the performance and efficiency of these two methods. The first rainfall event is short term and the second designed for long term rainfall data collection. Both rainfall events include a lengthy no‐rainfall period. Two sets of upper and lower values for the search range were selected for the numerical tests. The results show that the Multistart Powell and SCE methods are able to obtain the true values for the 16 parameters with a sufficiently long no‐rainfall period after a rainfall event. In addition, by using two selected objective functions, one based on root mean square error and one based on root mean square relative error criteria, it is found that the no‐rainfall period lengths necessary to obtain the converged true values for the 16 parameters are roughly the same. The SCE method provides a more efficient search based on an appropriate preliminary search range. The Multistart Powell method, on the other hand, leads to more accurate search results when there is no suitable search range selected based on the parameter calibration experience.