考虑车辆类型变化的中国乘用车排放特征

通过引入Lotka-Volterra模型预测了中国未来30年的乘用车竞争趋势;通过引入CHG、VOC、CO、SO2、PM2.5、NOx6类污染物更新了全生命周期清单;并据此建立了政策影响模型和敏感性模型评估电动化、轻量化和清洁化政策情景减排效果.结果表明,乘用车市场的主要竞争力来源于新能源与传统能源的竞争,且纯电动与混...     

高速铁路对国内民航旅客运输的替代效应测度

中国高速铁路的快速建设,对国内民航客运的发展产生了较大的影响。基于事后分析视角,从直达联系视角建立了国内高铁—民航运输的空间叠合网络,定量分析了高铁建设前后民航旅客运输的变化特征,并基于航空客流增速变化识别出高铁影响下的四种航段类型及其空间分布。在此基础上,基于2007-2014年全国277对高铁—民航运输重叠城市对的8年面板数据,以航空客流为因变量,建立随机效应模型,研究了高速铁路介入后对国内民航客运系统、北上广枢纽机场以及其他机场航线的替代效应。结论表明：（1）高速铁路对重叠网络的民航旅客运输产生了较强的替代效应,且高铁列车速度越快、城市间距离越短,替代效应越明显。（2）由于航班网络联系的多元化、旅客出行偏好选择以及对时间敏感性不同,枢纽机场航线较非枢纽机场航线受高铁建设的影响相对较小。未来随着高铁网络的进一步完善,其对航空客运的影响仍值得持续关注。     

On-road emissions of CO, CO2 and NOX from four wheeler and emission estimates for Delhi

This study presents the emission factor of gaseous pollutants(CO, CO_2, and NO X) from on-road tailpipe measurement of 14 passenger cars of different types of fuel and vintage. The trolley equipped with stainless steel duct, vane probe velocity meter, flue gas analyzer, Nondispersive infra red(NDIR) CO_2 analyzer, temperature, and relative humidity(RH) sensors was connected to the vehicle using a towing system. Lower CO and higher NO X emissions were observed from new diesel cars(post 2010) compared to old cars(post 2005), which implied that new technological advancement in diesel fueled passenger cars to reduce CO emission is a successful venture,however, the use of turbo charger in diesel cars to achieve high temperature combustion might have resulted in increased NO X emissions. Based on the measured emission factors(g/kg), and fuel consumption(kg), the average and 95% confidence interval(CI) bound estimates of CO, CO_2,and NO X from four wheeler(4W) in Delhi for the year 2012 were 15.7(1.4–37.1), 6234(386–12,252),and 30.4(0.0–103) Gg/year, respectively. The contribution of diesel, gasoline and compressed natural gas(CNG) to total CO, CO_2 and NO X emissions were 7:84:9, 50:48:2 and 58:41:1respectively. The present work indicated that the age and the maintenance of vehicle both are important factors in emission assessment therefore, more systematic repetitive measurements covering wide range of vehicles of different age groups, engine capacity, and maintenance level is needed for refining the emission factors with CI.     

Characterization of particulate matter from diesel passenger cars tested on chassis dynamometers

Emission characterization of particle number as well as particle mass from three diesel passenger cars equipped with diesel particulate filter(DPF), diesel oxidation catalyst(DOC)and exhaust gas recirculation(EGR) under the vehicle driving cycles and regulatory cycle.Total particle number emissions(PNEs) decreased gradually during speed-up of vehicle from 17.3 to 97.3 km/hr. As the average vehicle speed increases, the size-segregated peak of particle number concentration shifts to smaller size ranges of particles. The correlation analysis with various particulate components such as particle number concentration(PNC),ultrafine particle number concentration(UFPNC) and particulate matter(PM) mass was conducted to compare gaseous compounds(CO, CO_2, HC and NOx). The UFPNC and PM were not only emitted highly in Seoul during severe traffic jam conditions, but also have good correlation with hydrocarbons and NOxinfluencing high potential on secondary aerosol generation. The effect of the dilution temperature on total PNC under the New European Driving Cycle(NEDC), was slightly higher than the dilution ratio. In addition, the nuclei mode(DP: ≤ 13 nm) was confirmed to be more sensitive to the dilution temperature rather than other particle size ranges. Comparison with particle composition between vehicle speed cycles and regulatory cycle showed that sulfate was slightly increased at regulatory cycle, while other components were relatively similar. During cold start test, semivolatile nucleation particles were increased due to effect of cold environment. Research on particle formation dependent on dilution conditions of diesel passenger cars under the NEDC is important to verify impact on vehicular traffic and secondary aerosol formation in Seoul.     

荆山生态旅游区客源市场现状分析

旅游者是旅游活动的主体,旅游客源是旅游业赖以生存和发展的关键.根据课题组2002年4月在南漳、保康、谷城所作的抽样问卷调查，对荆山生态旅游区旅游客源市场的地域结构、旅游者背景及行为特征进行了分析，并在此基础上提出了旅游客源市场的开发对策.     

考虑群体差异的公路客运站旅客集聚行为分析

为降低客运站高峰期旅客集聚引起的安全隐患,利用公路客运全样本购票数据,首先,从集聚概率、集聚时长、集聚强度3个维度构建旅客集聚行为量化模型,获取工作日、节假日及春运不同等级客运站客流集聚特征;然后,考虑旅客个体属性与出行特征属性,分析不同旅客群体的集聚行为特征;最后,通过差异性检验解析集聚行为的影响因素,并提出降低安全...     

旅客列车智能定点停车的研究

根据我国目前旅客列车不能实现自动精确定点停车的现状,提出了旅客列车通过到发线上的三级感应减速装置自动控制机车制动风压,依次减速来实现在预定地点停车.通过列车有效制动距离计算模型,验证了列车通过Ⅰ级调速感应装置采用最大常用制动后滑行距离不超过1000 nm.     

泰山桃花源索道车厢进出站加减速的曲线的分析

通过介绍单线脱挂抱索器客运架空索道关键技术之一的加减速器的原理和作用,分析对比了直线（梯形）加减速曲线和“S”型加减速曲线的优劣。在原设计方图纸数据的基础上,通过对泰山桃花源索道车厢进站和出站加减速曲线的计算,得出实际车厢进站减速曲线和出站加速曲线数据并绘制出图形,同时根据计算得出的实际曲线的特点,结合所分析的直线（梯形）加减速曲线和“S”型加减速曲线的特性,对加减速器相关部件检查维护提出了相应的建议。     

细水雾灭火系统扑救铁路隧道救援站内客车火灾的全尺寸试验研究

研究了细水雾灭火系统对铁路隧道救援站火灾的扑救性能。试验在铁路隧道救援站全尺寸模拟隧道平台上开展,研究了隧道内不同纵向通风条件下,细水雾灭火系统作用前后隧道内的温度场、燃烧成分、火源热辐射参量的分布及变化。结果表明,细水雾灭火系统可有效抑制模拟隧道内火灾,验证了细水雾灭火系统在铁路隧道救援站内的可行性和有效性。     

基于等维新息灰色马尔科夫的地铁客流量预测*

为准确预测地铁客流量的发展趋势,采用等维新息灰色GM（1,1）预测模型与马尔科夫模型相结合的方式建立等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型,探讨等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型在地铁客流量预测领域的应用;运用平均相对误差、后验差比值和小误差概率3种指标对模型精度进行检验。结果表明:等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型与原始数列的拟合程度较高,预测精度等级为Ⅰ级（优）,优于传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和等维新息灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,更加符合地铁客流的实际情况。