土层地震反应分析的地面加速度峰值计算研究

针对不同的工程场地采用20组相互独立的基岩加速度时程作为输入地震波,对广东省307个项目的地震安全性评价中的662个地震钻孔剖面进行土层地震反应分析,用相对均方误差来定量评估所得到的地面加速度峰值离散值,发现地面加速度峰值的计算结果具有很大的离散性,最大相对均方误差为19%,平均相对均方误差为7.53%;地震基本烈度高的地区比地震基本烈度低的地区的相对均方误差大,场地类别差的比场地类别好的相对均方误差大;目前较为普遍地用1条或3条基岩加速度时程作为地震动输入是明显不够的,应适当地增加,对于高烈度地区和场地类别较差的场地更是如此,才能得到较为合理的地面加速度峰值。     

障碍物布置对气体爆炸压力场的影响效果研究

为研究可燃气体爆炸压力场受障碍物布置的影响情况,运用流体动力学软件AutoReaGas建立不同阻塞程度和不同结构（平面、立体）的障碍物爆炸模型,模拟分析不同布置情况对气体爆炸压力场的影响程度和规律。研究表明:改变障碍物的阻塞程度和结构（平面、立体）都会影响可燃气体的爆炸超压峰值。同种障碍物结构下,随着阻塞率的增加,气体爆炸压力的增加程度在一定范围内呈现出先增大后减小的变化情况;相同阻塞率下,立体障碍物对爆炸压力场产生的影响明显大于平面障碍物。研究立体障碍物与平面障碍物对加速燃烧的影响情况旨在为工业生产过程中的实际应用提供理论依据和基础,为防控气体爆炸灾害提供一定参考借鉴作用。     

油气浓度对半开口管道爆炸超压特性与火焰行为的影响

为了研究油气浓度对半开口管道爆炸超压特性与火焰行为的影响,建立半开口透明管道实验台架,采用5种不同初始油气浓度,进行了一系列油气爆炸对比实验。研究结果表明:油气浓度对油气爆炸超压峰值以及升压速率有显著影响,二者都呈现随浓度的增加先增大后减小的变化规律;油气浓度对火焰锋面传播速度有着显著影响,在当量浓度比下,火焰锋面的传播速度最大,并且火焰锋面的传播距离也最远;管道内的火焰行为可以分为4个阶段;油气浓度对火焰传播形态以及传播速度有明显的影响,对火焰传播形态的影响主要体现在破坏变形以及管道外爆炸阶段,随着浓度增加,爆炸半径先增大后减小,火焰传播速度呈现相同的变化规律。     

型煤峰后渗透特性试验研究

煤层瓦斯渗透率是瓦斯（煤层气）抽采的重要指标之一,通过渗流模拟-吸附解吸试验装置,研究了型煤煤样在不同围压作用下破碎后卸载轴压围压过程中,以及加载至二次破坏过程中煤样渗透率随应力的变化情况。试验表明:型煤峰值强度后的渗透率较初始状态有所增大,峰值强度后卸载围压和轴压,其渗透率均增大。其后,给煤样固定一个围压加载轴压使煤样发生二次破坏,渗透率先减后增,整体呈U型趋势,且煤样发生二次破坏过程中的渗透率整体上要大于初次破坏过程中的渗透率,通过试验研究为矿井瓦斯抽放和煤层气开采提供了一定理论基础。     

基于能源碳排放预测的中国东部地区达峰策略制定

中国东部的11个省市是中国经济最发达的地区,其碳排放量约占全国碳排放量的1/2.随着气候变化的加剧和国际社会的关注,中国政府制定了区域差异化的达峰目标,因此,预测该地区碳排放对于评估中国能否实现达峰目标具有重要意义.本文基于中国东部11省市1997-2017年的面板数据,采用STIRPAT模型来预测不同情景下的碳排放趋势,并据此分析东部地区整体碳排放达峰的可能性.结果发现,有7个省市碳排放可能在2030年之前达峰,其中,北京、上海将最早出现碳排放峰值,达峰时间可能为2022年;然而,另外4个省市碳排放较难在2030年之前达峰.从东部地区整体来看,该地区碳排放达峰时间在2028-2033年,峰值为5018.03×10⁶~5497.20×10⁶ t.因此,东部地区整体碳排放可以在2030年左右达峰,为较好地实现中国整体碳排放达峰目标奠定了基础;此外,考虑到东部各省市的碳排放达峰情况存在差异,应根据各省市的实际情况制定差异化的达峰目标.     

STANDARDIZATION OF PEAK-VOLUME TRANSFORMATIONS1

ABSTRACT: A general treatment of logarithmic transformations and standardization of peak flows on powers of direct runoff is given. Interpretation is offered in this regard for several recent works. There is no basis in reason and no justification in practice for the power standardization. All power standardizations may be calculated from the original relationship.     

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PEAK WATER DEMAND OF MULTIFAMILY RESIDENCES1

ABSTRACT: The importance of estimating peak water demands for determining the dimensions of pipe size and meters which provide household water to multifamily residences is examined. Several methods utilized in North America and Europe are examined. The analysis makes clear the necessity of studying the peak water demand through statistics based on local data concerning multifamily residences. For different periods of return, the peak demand of a given apartment building is related to its size (the number of apartments) in order to compare the results obtained with existing formula. By use of Ridge-regression technique, the relationship between peak water demand, and building size (number of apartments) and available pressure is established. It can be concluded that peak demand can be estimated with the square root of number of apartment units in the building and the cube root of water pressure.     

STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY: DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Considerable effort is expended each year in making flood peak estimates at both gaged and ungaged sites. Many methods, both simplistic and complex, have been proposed for making such estimates. The hydrologist that must make an estimate at a particular site is interested in the accuracy of the estimate. Most methods are developed using either statistical analyses or analytical optimization schemes. While publications describing these methods often include some statistical measure of goodness-of-flt, the terminology often does not provide the potential user with an answer to the question,‘How accurate is the estimate?’ That is, statistical terminology often are not used properly, which may lead to a false sense of security. The use of the correct terminology will help potential users evaluate the usefulness of a proposed method and provide a means of comparing different methods. This study provides definitions for terms often used in literature on flood peak estimation and provides an interpretation for these terms. Specific problems discussed include the use of arbitrary levels of significance in statistical tests of hypotheses, the identification of both random and systematic variation in estimates from hydrologic methods, and the difference between accuracy of model calibration and accuracy of prediction.     

大型构件试品振动控制方法研究

大型构件试品振动试验的控制方法是试验成败和确保试验准确度的关键。每项试验由于构件形式结构参量各不相同很难以一种固定的控制模式对待,必须在对试品响应特性的研究分析的基础上比较若干控制方法的优劣,以确定有效可行的控制方法。本文作者结合某项工程试验的实践,论述研究分析的方法,供读者应用时参考。     

NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL METHODS IN URBAN HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT. In urban hydrologic studies, it is often necessary to determine the effect of changes in urban land use patterns on such runoff characteristics as flood peaks and flow volumes. Nonparametric statistical methods have certain properties that make them a valuable tool for detecting hydrologic change caused by a treatment, such as urbanization, that changes watershed over a period of time. As many hydrologists do not have a working familiarity with nonparametric methods, a number of them are used for illustrative purposes to analyze the effect of urbanization on 24 years of annual flood peaks for a Louisville, Kentucky, watershed. In the example, urbanization was found to increase the central tendency, but not the dispersion of the peaks. Peak flows modeled by holding watershed parameters constant were also found to be increasing because of an upward trend in precipitation. By following the numerical examples in the paper and looking up test statistics in referenced sources, the reader can easily apply these methods to other situations.