Number concentration and size distributions of submicron particles in Jinan urban area： Characteristics in summer and winter

The aerosol number concentration and size distribution were measured with the newly developed Wide-range Particle Spectrometer in summer and winter of 2006 at the urban site of Jinan City.Here reported the characteristics of fine particles of the different observation seasons.Relative high number concentrations for the particles in the diameter range of 10-500 nm were observed in both seasons.It was found that the dominant number distributed in particle diameter smaller than 100 nm and the percentage over the number concentration of all air particles is much higher than what has been measured in other urban sites over the world.The number mean diameter in summer was much smaller than in winter,strongly suggesting the different origin of ultrafine particles in different seasons.That is, particles in ultrafine mode mainly came from nucleation and new particle formation in summer while from traffic emission in winter. The diurnal variation also supported this point.Number concentration in the diameter range of 10-200 nm got their peak values at noontime,well correlated with the mixing ratio of SO_2 and the intensity of solar radiation in summer.While in winter,those in the same diameter range showed the main peaks during the traffic hours happened in the morning and evening.     

具有超压/负压防护功能的急救车防生物污染的安全性试验研究

采用粘质沙雷菌气溶胶,对具有超压/负压防护功能的急救车防生物污染的安全性进行试验考核。分别测试气溶胶发生后30s,1min,5min,10min时,车厢在超压防护和负压防护下的过滤效率,其结果表明:急救车在超压防护状态下开启空调时的平均过滤效率能达到99.99%,不开空调时的平均过滤效率能达到99.95%;在负压防护状态下开启空调时的平均过滤效率能达到99.93%,不开空调时的平均过滤效率能达到99.95%。证明急救车能够通过生物污染区域安全运送、急救伤病员,也能够运送、急救生物污染伤病员或烈性传染病员确保沿途环境不受污染,该研究成果为应对生物恐怖袭击和突发公共卫生事件(烈性传染病)提供了一种安全可靠的机动医疗救治平台。     

Simulated potential effects of ecological factors on a hypothetical population of Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis)

Simulations provide an opportunity to examine how single or multiple perturbations may impact a specific species. The objectives of this study were to identify thresholds at which changes in stream peak flow, stream base flow, and/or chytrid fungus presence alter long-term Rana chiricahuensis populations. We used scenarios with varying peak flow mortality rates, base flow mortality rates, and chytrid fungus mortality rates. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Over 50 years, populations in six scenarios increased and 13 scenarios decreased. Eight scenarios resulting with fewer than 100 individuals included stochastic effects for at least two of three perturbations and the remaining scenarios included chronic effects of 30% or higher. Scenarios with population increases had either no chytrid fungus effect or chronic effects from perturbations totaling less than 30%. In the absence of chytrid fungus, populations increased and became stable. At a 10% annual death rate caused by chytrid fungus, the R. chiricahuensis population decreased 46.8%. At a 20% death rate, the population decreased 98.6%. Model scenarios were sensitive to peak flow death rates. As peak flow mortality increased to 10 and 20%, extinction rates increased to 91.7 and 99.9%, respectively. With model parameters and the no base flow mortality, R. chiricahuensis populations declined by 92% with a 3.2% extinction rate at 50 years. Models with base flow mortality rates of 10 and 20% resulted in population extinction rates of 48.7 and 96.1%, respectively. Scenario analysis of perturbations on a hypothetical R. chiricahuensis population provided a framework in which to view combined effects on a species. Analysis supports supposition that chytrid fungus is the proximate cause of many amphibian declines, but the added effect of base flow and peak flow has the potential to hasten declines.     

Estimation of emission reduction potential in China’s industrial sector

The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries, which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long. Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand, and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations. By employing the economic accounting method, this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China’s Industrial sector for the period of 2010–2050. It reveals that, taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak, the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons (bts) for the period of 2010–2030, with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction. Afterwards, reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030–2050, where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts, and intensity reduction 4.115 bts. If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period, the reduction potential can be even greater, e.g. the emission peak can arrive five years earlier (in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8% as compared to the original estimation. Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction, even beyond the emission peak. This article concludes with the following policy suggestions. (1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak; (2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation, where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option. (3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement, which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design. (4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment, the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring. (5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, should be encouraged.     

碳交易政策如何影响工业碳生产率:来自中国省级数据的准自然实验

当前,在中国奋力实现"碳达峰"碳中和"目标的背景下,不仅给碳排放量相对较高的工业企业带来较大环境治理压力,同时也给其在经济增长方面带来较大冲击.对其随着碳交易政策的提出,是否能够产生"减碳促经"效果展开深入研究.基于2005~2019年30个省市数据,通过双重差分等方法和多重中介效应模型对碳交易政策与工业碳生产率的影响效果和作用路径展开深入分析.结果表明,碳交易政策能够明显提升工业碳生产率水平;同时该种作用效果会随着试点区域的不同存在明显差异;该政策能够产生显著的环境规制、结构优化、技术和能源结构优化效应.建议通过加速完善环境规制层面法律制度、加快构建环保产业发展新体系、加强绿色技术创新研发力度和加速优化能源结构方面促进中国工业经济向低碳化发展转型.     

多情景视角下中国能源消费和碳达峰路径

准确预测能源消费及碳排放量对于科学有序落实我国"2030年前碳达峰,2060年前碳中和"目标有重要现实意义.提出了一种融合位置扰动和模拟退火的改进粒子群算法（IPSO）优化基于两层"分解-集成"策略的预测方法：首先利用趋势分解（TD）将原始能源消费时序分解成趋势项和非趋势项,继而使用经验模态分解（EMD）将非趋势项分解成若干本征模态函数（IMFs）和一个残差项,然后对上述趋势项、IMFs和残差项分别建模预测,利用IPSO优化多元线性回归模型（MLR）预测趋势项,采用长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）预测非趋势项的本征模态函数IMFs和残差子序列,最后通过相加集成求取最终能源消费预测值.实证分析表明,基于TD-EMD两层"分解-集成"策略的IPSO-MLR-LSTM模型融合了TD、EMD、IPSO和LSTM的优点,更全面地捕捉了趋势项和非趋势项演化规律,提升了预测性能,将其应用于能源消费领域是可行且有效的.最后,预测了在不同能源消费结构、经济增长、人口数量、能源效率和人均生活能源消费水平情景下的我国2021~2035年能源消费和碳排放量,并给出相关政策建议.     

基于系统动力学的中国碳减排路径模拟

通过分析二氧化碳排放影响因素之间作用关系与碳减排的主要路径,构建二氧化碳排放系统动力学模型。在此基础上,通过调控供给侧经济增长速度、能源结构和产业结构要素,预测四种不同情景方案对二氧化碳排放的影响,以进一步探讨二氧化碳排放主要部门减排贡献。结果表明：四种方案的二氧化碳净排放量增长趋势逐年变缓,在二氧化碳净排放量达到峰值后,调整经济增速、改善能源结构和优化产业结构继续为碳减排发挥积极作用,相比于经济增速和产业结构调整,能源结构改善的减排贡献度更高。在综合调控经济增速、能源结构和产业结构的方案下,中国二氧化碳净排放量2024年将达到高峰值104.45亿t,2058年实现碳中和,这与现实情况更加吻合。未来若能抓住经济、能源、产业低碳转型的良好机遇,并进一步加强各部门的减排努力,中国二氧化碳净排放量有望2025年前达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。     

自供电式同步翻转电荷提取电路的优化设计

目的 解决现有接口电路俘能效率低、开关控制电路模块结构复杂等问题。方法 基于电压翻转及电荷提取技术,提出一种自供电式同步翻转电荷提取的压电能量俘获电路(Self-Powered Optimized Synchronous Inversion and Charge Extraction Circuit,SP-OSICE)。该电路设计了2个电压峰值检测电路,检测压电换能器两端电压峰值,并在正峰值处进行一次电压翻转,然后在负峰值处采用同步电荷提取方法,提取压电换能器寄生电容上储存的电荷,提高能量的收集效率。结果 在低负载区,SP-OSICE电路的输出功率略低于SICE电路的输出功率,随着负载电压的增大,SP-OSICE电路的输出功率略高于SICE电路,且可达到全桥整流电路最大输出功率的6倍以上。结论 SP-OSICE电路优化了SICE电路中的开关控制策略,无需整流桥结构,提高了接口电路的输出功率。整体电路采用自供电设计,无需外部辅助电路控制晶体管通断,降低了电路结构的复杂性。仿真和实验结果均验证了SP-OSICE电路的优势。     

大空间内封闭喷漆作业的火灾危险性及消防安全对策研究

以采用封闭喷漆工艺的某喷漆车间为研究对象,分别分析了车间内封闭喷漆室以及敞开空间的火灾危险性。采用多能法进行了喷漆室爆炸冲击波超压计算,发现封闭喷漆作业的火灾爆炸事故会对车间围护结构产生不同程度破坏作用。因此,对大空间内采用封闭喷漆作业的情况,加强消防安全措施十分必要。结合上述火灾危险性定性、定量分析结果和相关标准规范要求,从设置灭火系统、火灾自动报警系统、通风系统、明确安全管理规定等角度提出了相应的消防安全措施建议,为确保此类场所的消防安全提供了技术支持。     

综放支承压力峰值位置的理论及回归分析

鉴于综放支承压力峰值位置对工作面安全生产影响的重要性,对支承压力峰值位置的确定进行了研究分析。其中煤体硬度、煤层厚度及工作面推进速度为支承压力峰值位置的主要影响因素。采用相似模拟实验及理论分析方法研究各因素对支承压力峰值位置的影响规律及其函数关系。最后应用回归分析方法得到了支承压力峰值位置确定的经验公式,并将其进行了实际应用。结果表明:上述3个影响因素对支承压力峰值位置的影响均为非线性的;支承压力峰值位置与煤体硬度近似地满足反比关系;支承压力峰值位置与开采煤层厚度、工作面推进速度满足指数函数关系;通过对这3个因素的回归分析,可以确定支承压力的峰值位置。