Decision analysis on fire safety design based on evaluating building fire risk to life

This study presents a framework of decision analysis on fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life. A probabilistic risk assessment method for occupant life is presented with consideration of some uncertainties of evacuation process and fire development at first. For occupant evacuation time assessment, occupant pre-movement time is characterized by normal distribution. For onset time to untenable conditions assessment, its uncertainty is considered as probability distribution according to the range of design fires. Based on event tree technique, probable fire scenarios are analyzed with consideration of the effect of fire protection systems, employees extinguishing, etc. It is difficult to make a precise assessment on probability and consequence of every fire scenario, but their lower bound and upper bound can be achieved based on statistical data. Therefore, Supersoft Decision Theory [Malmnäs, P.E., 1995. Methods of Evaluation in Supersoft Decision Theory. Department of Philosophy, Stockholm University, 365 Stockholm; Johansson, H., Malmnäs, P.E., 2000. Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 14, 55–84] that allows decision maker to utilize vague statement is utilized to integrate with risk assessment to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives. To express how to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life, two hypothetical fire safety design alternatives for a commercial building are presented.     

有毒化学品事故安全区域的划分及人员疏散

针对有毒化学品事故,要求能迅速地对可能产生危险的区域进行辨识,尽快地确定安全区域的范围并告知有关人员进行疏散.笔者在分析应急救援指南(ERG)、立即致死浓度(IDLH)、紧急反应计划指南(ERPG)、关心浓度限值(LOC)等方法的基础上,采用有毒化学品的各种暴露极限浓度对初始隔离区、防护区、热区、暖区、冷区进行了划分,并对事故影响范围内人员疏散的原则进行了界定.该原则既能够满足现场救援的实际需求,又能保证周围群众及现场应急处置人员的人身安全.     

基于元胞自动机的弱视条件下群体疏散的仿真研究

根据人在弱视情况下的行为特征,建立基于元胞自动机的逃生模型,对弱视情况下的人群疏散进行了模拟。模拟过程中考虑了人的学习能力及人与人之间的相互作用等因素,模型加入吸引子使模拟人的疏散行为更为灵活。基于人能通过熟悉周围环境作出合理判断的学习能力,引入了"积累步长"的概念,使人的沟通判断能力(走过的路径、边界和出口位置通过交流能够获取)在模型中得到体现。获取足够信息的人可以避免多余的寻找,降低了逃生时间,体现了"人多力量大"的互助行为。通过大量的模拟实验,并讨论不同的环境条件对人群疏散的影响。     

Diffusion of Policy Discourse into Rural Spheres Through Co-Management of State Forestlands: Two Cases from West Java,Indonesia

In the context of state forestland management in tropical regions, the implementation of a co-management approach has been widely advocated in order to include the voices of local people and accommodate their interests in management decision-making. Most co-management literatures, however, underestimate the significance of statutory authority held by state to control forestlands and resources. By clarifying the implications of state ownership of forestland, this article aims to critically examine co-management processes with reference to Foucault's notion of power and subject. Case studies were conducted at two co-management pilot sites in Gunung Halimun-Salak National Park, West Java, Indonesia. Findings demonstrate that co-management processes actually materialize shared decision-making arrangements between state forest bureaucracy and rural people through the application of equity approaches, such as deliberation, negotiation, and experimentation. At the same time, these processes can also function to diffuse state policy discourse in rural spheres, which makes rural subjects who accept and practice the policy discourse. The research also reveals that the diffusion process is complex and does not necessarily make a durable subject unless they are pertinently organized. The results of this research indicate that co-management of state forestlands is a double-edged process for local people who risk becoming a proxy of state bureaucracy in the implementation of state policy. Proponents of co-management should, therefore, critically examine whether new institutional arrangements, which are developed through co-management, truly reflect values and needs of local people and assist them to develop a pertinent subject to deal with it.     

不同房间结构下人员疏散的CA模拟研究

采用元胞自动机模型分别对不同房间结构中的人员疏散进行了模拟,重点研究了人员密度和出口条件对疏散时间的影响.结果表明,疏散时间随着人员密度线形增加;根据建筑结构的不同,采用多出口对疏散时间有不同程度的减少.该模拟结果对于出口的设计和人员的安全疏散具有一定的指导意义.     

考虑人员伤亡的高校宿舍火灾风险评估方法研究

为提高高校宿舍楼火灾应急疏散效率,以某高校宿舍楼为例,建立可用疏散时间(ASET)概率密度函数的三角分布模型,并利用FDS软件进行火灾模拟,得到函数中各参数值;运用Pathfinder软件对人员疏散进行模拟,得到火灾未疏散人数与时间的函数;通过对上述2个函数的乘积进行积分,得到不同火灾场景下的伤亡人数。结果表明:影响火灾临界时间的主要因素是火灾能见度和烟气层温度;宿舍楼中部火灾发展速度快于两侧;人员性别、意识状态及火灾探测报警情况对疏散时间和效率影响程度不同。研究结果可为应急疏散及宿舍楼人员预期火灾风险评估提供依据。     

考虑结伴行为的双出口超市元胞自动机模型

为研究结伴行为以及障碍物对疏散过程的影响,建立考虑2人结伴行为的双出口元胞自动机疏散模型。模型在静态场中引入危险度模拟行人路径选择,设置个体和2人结伴疏散人群,研究不同行人密度下二者的疏散过程,比较疏散效率;分析相同密度下不同结伴比例的行人疏散过程,得到最优比例;设置横向、竖向和横竖3种障碍物排列方式,模拟个体疏散和结伴疏散2种情况,得到障碍物最佳排列。结果表明:对于个体疏散和结伴疏散,行人密度增加会增加疏散时间,相同行人密度下个体疏散优于结伴疏散;相同结伴比例下,行人疏散时间随着行人密度的增加而增加,结伴比例小于0.6时,疏散效率较高;最佳障碍物排列方式为横竖排列,建议结伴行人比例为0.4。     

突发性客流地铁站点的疏散设计优化研究

为提升突发性客流地铁站点疏散效率,以武汉市某地铁站为研究对象,采用数值模拟方法,分析不同期间节点下的疏散状况,选择最不利的典型工况(节假日A3)进行特征分析。研究结果表明：站台层拥堵时间大于站厅层拥堵时间,站台层疏散口为疏散瓶颈区;对站台层疏散口的位置与朝向进行调整,优化后疏散效率提高9.3%;验证合理增加高选择度站厅层出入口宽度等优化措施效果,发现以上策略具有一定可操作性和推广性,研究结果可为定量评估地铁站疏散能力提供参考。     

某教学楼火灾中人员安全疏散时间的预测

文章分析了大型建筑物内人员疏散的特点,结合某幢教学楼的设定火灾场景人员的安全疏散,对该建筑物火灾中人员疏散的设计方案做出了初步评价,得出了一种在人流密度较大的建筑物内,火灾中人员疏散时间的计算方法和疏散过程中瓶颈现象的处理方法,并提出采用距离控制疏散过程和瓶颈控制疏散过程来分析和计算建筑物的人员疏散。     

环境健康风险评价中我国居民暴露参数探讨

暴露参数是人体暴露和健康风险评价中的关键性参数,根据我国居民人群的基本体征参数和相关调查统计数据,在借鉴和参考了美国环境保护署(US EPA)建立暴露参数的方法学基础上,探讨了我国居民呼吸、饮食、皮肤等的暴露参数. 结果表明:我国居民呼吸速率为5.71～19.02 m3/d,18岁以下人群各种活动强度下男性和女性的呼吸速率几乎一样,而18～60岁的男性呼吸速率明显大于女性;我国成年人饮食量为1 176.3 g/d,主要食用米、面及其制品,分别占总饮食量的23%和13%;我国成年男性的皮肤表面积为1.697 m2,成年女性为1.531 m2;我国成年男性平均体质量为62.70 kg,成年女性平均体质量为54.40 kg;我国居民的各种暴露参数与美国相差2.5%～33.3%,若在同等条件下参考国外暴露参数开展暴露和健康风险评价可能带来较大的偏差,开展全国范围内系统的暴露参数调查研究工作迫在眉睫.