地铁车站站台火灾中人员的安全疏散

笔者分析了地铁站台火灾时火灾临界危险条件和人员的疏散特点 ,提出了地铁站台火灾中人员安全疏散模型 ,确定了人员安全疏散时间的计算方法 ;应用火灾模拟软件SMARTFIRE4 .0对某地铁站站台着火时温度和烟气浓度的发展进行了数值模拟研究 ,据此得到人员安全疏散可利用的时间 ;结合该站台着火时的具体情况 ,计算了人员安全疏散所需要的时间。研究与计算结果表明 :该地铁站火灾时 ,站台至站厅的楼梯是整个疏散过程的瓶颈 ,而楼梯的疏散能力主要受人员流量和楼梯的有效宽度所制约 ,据此提出了相应的解决方法。     

灾害避难行为的模拟模型研究(Ⅲ)--双人单房情况的避难模拟

研究突发性灾害下的避难行为,有利于提高公众的防灾减灾意识和灾害抵御能力,在当前城市防灾减灾中具有重要的理论和现实意义.利用计算机模拟仿真试验可以多次重复、简单易行的优点,在对现有的计算机仿真模型进行改进的基础上,开展了不可视环境下双人单房任意方向下的灾害避难行为仿真模拟研究.结果表明,在双人单房的情况下,两人分头避难模式优于两人共同避难模式;同时,进一步的扩展模拟还表明,两人在分头避难又相遇后,进行正确交流也是十分有益的,这往往可以缩短发现避难出口的时间.     

Local Peoples' Knowledge,Aptitude and Perceptions of Planning and Management Issues in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve,India

Local peoples' knowledge, aptitude, and perceptions of planning and management issues were investigated in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR) in Uttaranchal State of India. Conflicts ensued between local inhabitants and the management authority due to lack of community participation. Although most respondents seem to claim the knowledge of the objectives of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, the source of information indicates their interaction with the management authority is not frequent. While local population seem to agree on reduced intensity of agriculture with compensation equal to loss of net income, there is a perceptible difference in responses among different age groups. While the younger generation seems to agree to move away to other areas with suitable compensation packages, the older generation prefer those options that require some adjustments in use and access to natural resources. The option of ecotourism as a source of income is acceptable to most respondents, but young and old respondents disagreed about impact of such activity on social behavior of local inhabitants. Among those groups studied, only the “self-employed group” seem to be more interested in ecotourism in comparison to other occupation classes. Gender differences in perceptions are prominent with reference to development options. While the men preferred economic opportunities, the women preferred improved living conditions. An evaluation mechanism similar to the one described in this paper will be helpful to the management authority to assess and modify their management plans to mitigate conflicts with local people.     

地下水中钒的形成及其与人群健康的关系

本文主要根据“七五”期间的研究成果和国内外的研究现状，论述了地下水中钒离子形成的主要因素及其与人群健康的关系。     

Quantification and Index of Non-Point Source Pollution in Taihu Lake Region with GIS

The contribution of phosphorus and nitrogen from non-point source pollution (NPS) in the Taihu Lake region was investigated through case study and surveying in the town of Xueyan, From experimental results coupled with survey and statistics in the studied area, the distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus input to the water body is achieved from four main sources: agricultural land, village, the town center and the poultry factory. The results showed that about 38% of total phosphorus (TP) and 48% of total nitrogen (TN) discharged is from agricultural land, 33% of TP and 40% TN from village residents, 25% of TP and 10% of TN from the town center and 4% of TP and 2% of TN from the poultry factory.The Agricultural Non-point Pollution Potential Index (APPI) system for identifying and ranking critical areas of NPS was established with a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based technology. Quantification of the key factors in non-point sources pollution was carried out utilizing the following: Sediment Production Index (SPI), Runoff Index (RI), People and Animal Loading Index (PALI) and Chemical Use Index (CUI). These are the core parts of the model, and the weighting factor of each index was evaluated according the results of quantification. The model was successfully applied for evaluating APPI in Xueyan. Results from the model showed that the critical area identified for NPS control in Xueyan. The model has several advantages including: requiring fewer parameters, easy acquirement of these parameters, friendly interface, and convenience of operation. In addition it is especially useful for identifying critical areas of NPS when the basic data are not fully accessible, which is the present situation in China.     

老年人血脂异常的诊断与药物降脂治疗

本文对老年人血脂异常的特点和诊断方法作了较为详细的论述，对临床中各种治疗药物的治疗效果进行了比较，指出了老年人血脂异常药物治疗时应注意的事项。     

基于数值模拟的某地铁车站人群紧急疏散研究

为了模拟分析地铁疏散影响因素,提出针对性应急疏散策略,达到提高疏散效率的目的。本文以某地下二层岛式车站为例,运用人员紧急疏散仿真软件Pathfinder,建立了车站紧急疏散仿真模型,研究了各区域人数变化情况、各连接处的通行速率以及疏散瓶颈位置。结果表明:现行条件下,该车站的疏散预警阈值为2000人,疏散时间约326s;疏散瓶颈出现在站台层疏散楼梯处,拥堵时间约为120s,且站台层人数越多,拥堵时间越长。因此,当超过2000人时,车站应限制人员进出比例,加强人员引导,提高出站效率,确保站内人员可安全、有序疏散。同时,针对疏散瓶颈位置,站厅层自动检票闸机数量的确定应结合楼梯的通行速率,减低人员疏散时间。     

基于地铁乘客个体特征的非适应性行为研究

为减少应急疏散时地铁乘客的非适应性行为,提高应急疏散效率,以知信行(KAP)理论为基础,构建地铁疏散乘客非适应性行为模型,在此基础上编制乘客非适应性行为调查问卷,运用SPSS软件中的T检验和方差分析方法分析乘客个体基础特征对非适应性行为的影响,并运用结构方程模型研究疏散乘客安全知识及安全态度与非适应性行为的关系。结果表明:疏散乘客的性别、年龄及火灾经历对非适应性行为具有显著影响,文化程度及乘车频次对非适应性行为无显著影响;疏散乘客的安全知识和安全态度对非适应性行为均具有显著的负向影响。     

基于地震与危化品突发事件耦合影响的人员转移安置点设置

通过对目前人员疏散转移安置点设置研究现状和问题及城镇化工园区集约发展安全隐患的分析,提出了突发事件耦合影响下人员转移安置点综合规划的必要性。首先分析了典型危化品园区内突发事件耦合的典型模式、影响特性,并基于突发事件耦合特性、影响区域提出了耦合突发事件下人员转移安置点规划的安全性、可达性、适宜性的14个关键影响因素,给出了各指标量化的标准。基于加权灰色关联法和事故影响评估方法,提出了一套安置点适宜性评估筛选、新增安置点规划的方法,给出了安置点规划的流程。利用改进的Voronoi图方法确定安置点的覆盖半径和责任服务区,进行安置点容量与责任区内核密度人口容量的对比分析,以确定安置点人口容量缺口。结合安置点可达性、安全性、适宜性进行叠加划分,确定新增安置点规划位置。最后以某区示范应用,阐述其规划应用方法和流程。以区域内安置点最大全覆盖原则,得到了在地震灾害影响下城镇人员可能受危化品泄漏威胁区域,以及区域安置点的缺口及规划方案。     

Changes in blood lead and water lead in Edinburgh. An eight year follow-up to the Edinburgh lead study

This study aimed to measure changes in household water lead and blood lead in young people living in Edinburgh over a period of 8 years. Two hundred and twenty-three families were eligible and 207 (93%) agreed to participate. A half-hour stagnation sample of kitchen cold water was taken from each household, and 171 young people (aged 14–17 years) provided a blood sample for lead analysis. Information on plumbing changes, exposure to other sources of lead and factors which might influence blood lead was collected by questionnaire. Edinburgh is supplied with water treated in one of two treatment plants. There was a different programme of water treatment in each plant. In one (A) lime and orthophosphate was introduced in the interval between the original and follow-up studies. In the other (F) lime treatment began before the original study and orthophosphate was introduced subsequently. In water from treatment plant A, mean water lead levels fell from 34 to 4.3 gL-1 (87%). In water supplied from treatment plant F the corresponding values were 9.3 to 3.6 gL-1 (61%). These reductions were due to both water treatment and removal of lead plumbing. Houses with no lead plumbing have water lead levels 89% lower than houses with lead tanks, and 47% lower than houses with lead pipes. About one-third of households with lead tanks are predicted to have water lead levels above the current EC limit of 50 gL- 1, though only 3% or less of the remaining households would exceed this limit. If the proposed 10 gL-1 limit were introduced, 34% of households supplied from plant A and 25% from plant F would breach the limit. Blood lead levels fell from an average of 11.0 gdL-1 to 4.0 gdL-1. Males had higher values than females and the main factors influencing levels were water lead and age of house. Our results show substantial reductions in household water lead and blood lead in our sample over a period of 8 years and represent an important achievement in public health. However, more progress will be required if the proposed new limit of 10 gL-1 for water lead is to be met. There is a need for the continuing surveillance of household water lead and blood lead levels in representative samples of the population.