Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

Natural disasters and older US adults with disabilities: implications for evacuation

We analysed 2003 and 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA to produce estimates of the number of community dwelling people aged 65 years or older with a disability and requiring special equipment.(4) Approximately, 47,840 (31.6 per cent) older adults with a disability and 24,938 (16.6 per cent) older adults requiring the use of special equipment were community dwelling and might require assistance to evacuate or a shelter that could accommodate special equipment. Older adults who need special equipment were likely to be female, unmarried and white, and to rate their health as fair or poor. Personnel who plan and prepare for evacuations and temporary shelter during disasters need baseline information on the number of older adults with a disability or who require special equipment. A surveillance system, such as the BRFSS, gathers information that planners can use to prepare for and to deliver services.     

城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究

为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险,以支持城市道路规划,以及有效开展应急疏散管理,提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法.该方法设定多种影响因素,构建道路疏散风险评价函数,并结合临界簇模型,运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据,评估不同时间的道路疏散风险.以上海市外环线内区域为研究区,开展道路疏散风险综合评价与...     

中国居民碘营养状况分析及对策探讨

中国是世界上碘缺乏病流行最为广泛的国家之一,但是,我国居民的平均碘营养状况属于正常范围,只是由于地理地质条件和生活水平的差异,造成居民碘营养状况极为均匀,有些地区严重缺碘,而有些地区碘营养已经过量,个别地区学相当严重因此,对于中国这样一个人口众多,幅员辽阔的国家,应针对具体情况,对缺磺地区进行补碘,最后中与国家的扶贫下策相结合,进行分类指导,提倡科学补碘。     

《地铁设计规范》中自动扶梯和人行楼梯通行能力折减系数的探讨

针对地铁车站中的人员疏散问题,设置5种疏散场景,运用FDS+Evac进行数值模拟,得出各场景下自动扶梯与人行楼梯平均疏散能力和疏散时间,并与《地铁设计规范》中人员疏散时间计算公式得出的结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:我国现行《地铁设计规范》中自动扶梯和人行楼梯通行能力折减系数取值偏大,宜从0.9调整为0.772。     

建筑物火灾时人员的认知水平对疏散心理和行为影响研究

在建筑物火灾中,个体行为因人员的个体特征、认知水平、社会特质、面临不同危险局面等因素的不同会呈现出极大的差异性。因此,在建筑物火灾中,人员应急疏散策略和方案在充分考虑紧急情况下外界环境因素的同时,还必须综合考虑处于火灾等紧急情况下的人员心理和行为特征。本研究是在大量调查问卷获得的数据和资料的基础上,基于一定的数学模型,利用相应的统计分析方法,主要讨论体现人员认知水平的文化程度、消防知识与经验二个因素对疏散心理和行为的影响特点。研究结果将充实我国人员疏散心理和行为反应数据库,为建筑防火性能化设计和人员消防培训提供基础数据和指导。     

基于GIS的火灾安全疏散模拟

为综合描述场景的关键要素,加强模拟的真实性,基于GIS技术,针对火灾场景下的人员疏散提出了模拟模型。借助GIS缓冲区分析与拓扑分析等功能,实现了初始化场景解析、实时空间分析等流程,可以对任意模拟时间步火灾、人员、建筑环境等要素的分布特征信息进行提取。为人员模型制定了基于空间信息的疏散策略,模拟人员的环境感知能力与分析判断能力。设计并实现了GIS模型至FDS模型的转换接口,维护了GIS模型与FDS模型的一致性,提高了建模效率。在模型基础上,研制了人员疏散模拟系统。应用实例说明了模型对环境各要素的描述能力及对疏散场景的模拟能力。     

能见度降低条件下楼梯上行疏散实验研究

为探究地下公共建筑能见度降低场景中,个体及小群体楼梯上行疏散特征,在某公共建筑楼梯间进行个体疏散和小群体疏散实验,分析不同能见度条件下个体在梯段及平台上的疏散速度、疏散行为、小群体特征等关键参数。研究结果表明：梯段速度受能见度影响程度大于平台速度,在正常能见度条件下,小群体行为会对疏散移动速度产生负面影响,在低能见度条件下,小群体行为有助于提升疏散效率,表现在小群体平均速度高于群体中最慢个体速度且小群体和个体之间的速度差异较小。     

隧道火灾性能化安全疏散设计方法研究

阐述了隧道防火设计的重要性,保证人员的安全疏散是隧道性能化安全设计的首要目标。确定了火灾时人员安全疏散的判定条件,分析了人员逃生时所需疏散时间的组成,通过火灾时人员所需安全疏散时间与可用安全疏散时间的比较分析,介绍了隧道火灾疏散设计的一般思路。结合某隧道的实例对这种性能化设计思路进行了说明,确定了某隧道疏散口间距和逃生滑梯通行能力的初步设计方案。     

Selling displaced people? A multi‐method study of the public communication strategies of international refugee organisations

The world has seen a major increase in forced displacement since 2011. As a growing number of states implement restrictive refugee policies, public communication has become essential for refugee organisations. This study analysed, therefore, three international refugee organisations’ discursive strategies towards the recent Syrian crisis, as well as their production and the social context. A critical discourse analysis of international press releases (N=122) and six semi‐structured interviews with press and regional officers revealed that the observed actors largely dehumanise displaced people and subordinate them to the ‘Western self’ and state interests; displaced people hardly ever acquire their own voice. The study found that the medium characteristics of press releases and the importance of media attention result in a depersonalising humanitarian discourse. In addition, there were indications of a post‐humanitarian discourse that reproduced the humanitarian sector's ‘marketisation’. Finally, the examined organisations use the political realist cross‐issue persuasion strategy, displaying displaced people as resettlement objects.