公共场所人员应急疏散引导研究

在公共场所应急疏散的过程中,应急疏散人员往往需要更多地依靠自身经验,而非传统的完全理性决策。为解决这一问题,提出一种具有引导者的多主体系统人员应急疏散交互模型,对模型中的Agent进行分类,建立单独Agent、结伴Agent和引导者Agent三类群体Agent,对疏散人员在引导者的指挥和控制作用下进行模拟。仿真结果表明在应急管理中设置引导者,可以在疏散初始阶段引领疏散人员快速明确疏散目标,减少迂回现象;疏散过程中合理疏导人群利用疏散出口,避免某一出口过度拥堵;引导者在疏散过程中进行密度控制,可以使整个疏散过程更合理有序,整体提高疏散效率。     

Urban riverbank residents' evaluation of flood evacuation policies in Winnipeg,Manitoba, Canada

The results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) as a part of a survey among the urban riverbank residents on the Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, indicated that the risk of over-dike flooding, set at 2ft above the 1997 flood water level, was a significant determinant of both voluntary and mandatory evacuation, compared to those set at the 1996 or 1997 levels. Mandatory evacuation was more preferred over voluntary evacuation when the likelihood of flooding was at its most severe, and the opposite relationship was the case when the likelihood was low. The notification time for evacuation, suggested as 1, 2, and 4 days, proved to be an insignificant attribute, whereas the respondents indicated significant preference for full flood compensation over an offer of either 80% or 90% flood relief, irrespective of the alternatives of voluntary or mandatory evacuation.     

Socioeconomic and indigeneity determinants of the consumption of non-timber forest products in Vietnam’s Bu Gia Map National Park

ABSTRACT

Conservation of protected areas requires understanding of the consumption of forest products by rural people who live near protected forests. Socioeconomic factors such as a better education, income, land holding size, have been used to understand the patterns of consumption of non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Ethnicity, and especially whether or not people are indigenous to the forested areas, may also change consumption patterns. In this study we analysed the socioeconomic factors, indigeneity and geographical locations of people living in the buffer zones of Vietnam’s Bu Gia Map National Park to better understand the key determinants of the consumption of NTFPs. We conducted 121 interviews with local households and found that indigeneity, education, family size, and the area of land used were statistically significant in explaining the amount of NTFPs consumed, while indigeneity and area of land used by local people had positive relationships with the diversity (measured in number of categories) of NTFPs consumed by local people. Interestingly, there were statistically significant effects of interactions between the area of land used and indigeneity on the consumption of NTFPs. The amount of these products is important for indigenous people who belong to the groups using small and medium areas of land. The medium land use group consumed significantly fewer categories of NTFPs than the small and large land use groups. This data may help local managers to develop interventions that support biodiversity conservation, promote sustainability of these important resources and improve the social welfare of marginal groups.     

系统论在建设煤矿本质安全文化中的应用

以系统论的思维方法分析了煤矿本质安全文化系统的要素及其相互关系, 绘制了由人员、要素、过程三方面构成的煤矿本质安全文化系统构成示意图。从企业视角, 空间视角和时间视角多角度出发建立了由理念目标子系统、过程控制子系统、发展动力子系统和形象传播子系统四部分组成的煤矿本质安全文化系统建设模型。指出在具体实践中,应避免激励偏差,注重建设“以人为本”的煤矿本质安全文化系统。     

Community resilience and volcano hazard: the eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the faldas in Ecuador

Official response to explosive volcano hazards usually involves evacuation of local inhabitants to safe shelters. Enforcement is often difficult and problems can be exacerbated when major eruptions do not ensue. Families are deprived of livelihoods and pressure to return to hazardous areas builds. Concomitantly, prevailing socio-economic and political conditions limit activities and can influence vulnerability. This paper addresses these issues, examining an ongoing volcano hazard (Tungurahua) in Ecuador where contextual realities significantly constrain responses. Fieldwork involved interviewing government officials, selecting focus groups and conducting surveys of evacuees in four locations: a temporary shelter, a permanent resettlement, with returnees and with a control group. Differences in perceptions of risk and health conditions, and in the potential for economic recovery were found among groups with different evacuation experiences. The long-term goal is to develop a model of community resilience in long-term stress environments.     

建筑物内人员安全疏散"性能化"评价方法的研究

安全疏散设计是建筑防火设计的重要方面,而建筑安全疏散评价对于确保火灾中人员的生命安全具有重要意义.本文基于"性能化"防火设计的思想,对影响建筑安全疏散的因素进行了分析,并对安全疏散的必要性能和评价程序进行较为全面的研究,其中包括烟气的评价、人员疏散能力的评价、疏散路线合理性的评价、疏散对策的评价等,最后以具体的案例进行了分析,目的在于为我国"性能化"防火设计提供理论及方法上的指导与帮助.     

从人员疏散的角度研究公路隧道的横通道间距

隧道的横通道作为人员疏散的安全地带,其间距的设置在人员安全疏散中是至关重要的。以雪峰山隧道为工程实例,从人员安全疏散的观点出发,阐述了一种计算横通道间距的方法,并简述了方法的应用。首先根据特长隧道火灾特点,模拟分析特长隧道四种不同火灾场景下的典型自然疏散过程,并运用火灾模拟软件FDS4.0计算四种火灾场景在不同横通道间距情况下的危险时间,然后与相应的包含人员疏散行为特征的疏散时间相比较,得出该隧道最适宜的横通道间距为270m,并分析其经济性。其方法和结论可为特长隧道消防系统的设计、紧急疏散方案和引导指挥体系的建立提供理论依据。     

高含硫气井周边居民疏散安全分析方法

高含硫气井周边居民疏散安全问题是石油天然气行业面临的主要公共安全问题。笔者提出了一套周边居民疏散安全分析方法:以井喷形成的1000ppm硫化氢烟羽的最大覆盖范围作为最小疏散范围,通过泄漏扩散模拟和人员疏散模拟技术预测基于该最小疏散范围的可用安全疏散时间(ASET)和必需安全疏散时间(RSET),通过对比分析ASET和RSET便可以评估周边居民在井喷情况下的疏散安全水平,进而提出针对性的对策措施。最后,通过一个实例验证该方法的可行性。     

某地下商场防火分区划分对人员安全疏散的影响研究

防火分区面积、人员疏散距离、疏散宽度等方面难以满足现有消防规范的要求是目前大型复杂建筑消防设计中经常遇到的问题。利用火灾安全工程学进行性能化分析是解决这类问题的一种方法。防火分区面积大小不仅会影响到烟气的控制效果，同时也会引起人员疏散距离和疏散宽度要求的变化。因此防火分区的划分应该和人员疏散结合起来综合优化考虑。本文主要针对一个地下商场的防火分区划分问题，进行了烟气运动和人员疏散的模拟计算，比较两种防火分区划分方法的优缺。