考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散研究*

为研究恐慌状态下人员抢行行为对整体疏散效果的影响,建立考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散元胞自动机模型,基于恐慌情绪算法将人员分为恐慌者和非恐慌者,通过改变恐慌者抢行概率体现抢行行为,并模拟仿真分析初始人员密度、恐慌情绪转化、抢行概率对人员疏散影响,对疏散过程中特殊现象进行分析。研究结果表明:人员密度适中时,抢行行为能够减少恐慌者数量,加快恐慌者转换进程,疏散时间随抢行概率增加而减小,疏散过程中存在恐慌聚集和两端疏散现象。研究结果可为突发事件下人员紧急疏散提供理论支持。     

疫情管控期间公共场所火灾疏散研究*

为探究新冠疫情管控期间公共建筑安全出口开放状态对人员疏散影响,通过实地调研了解公共建筑疏散管理及安全出口开放状态,利用Pathfinder模拟疫情管控前后某高校办公楼人员火灾疏散,分析人员疏散过程中个人拥堵总时长、最长连续拥堵时长、人员疏散路径,提出3种推荐出口开放方案,并通过Pathfinder模拟得到最优方案。研究结果表明:疫情管控期间,各公共建筑均关闭部分安全出口,以便于体温检测;疫情管控期间人员拥堵时长显著增大,常规情况下人均拥堵时长为16.01 s、个人拥堵时长最大为120.45 s,疫情管控期间人均拥堵时长为23.92 s、个人拥堵时长最大为168.23 s;区域A部分人员汇合至区域B中,导致楼梯2人员密度增大,在2~3层楼梯发生拥堵;同时开放出口Ⅰ和Ⅳ的方案Ⅲ为最优开放方案。     

基于自适应蚁群算法的化工园区毒气泄漏事故疏散路径规划*

为了降低人员在化工园区毒气泄漏事故中的伤亡风险,提出1种综合考虑疏散路径距离和毒性负荷值的自适应蚁群算法。通过建立路径评价函数,将疏散路径的毒性负荷值引入蚁群算法中,改进算法的信息素更新策略,采用启发式因子自适应调整策略并改进算法的启发式函数。运用Matlab软件进行仿真,将算法应用到某化工园区毒气泄漏事故中。研究结果表明:该自适应蚁群算法可以保持较高的搜索速度,在寻找距离最短道路的同时避开毒性负荷较高的疏散路径,可为化工园区毒气泄漏事故的应急疏散路径规划提供参考。     

基于Pathfinder模拟的教学楼出入口与楼梯优化研究

教学楼人员在紧急状态疏散过程中极易发生拥挤踩踏事故,合理设置教学楼出入口与楼梯宽度是保障人员快速安全疏散的关键影响因素。本文采用Pathfinder软件平台以某高中教学楼为研究对象进行建模,通过变换出入口位置,改变楼梯梯段宽度等方式设计调整教学楼疏散场景,设置不同场景,模拟了不同场景下教学楼出入口和各楼层楼梯处的人员疏散情况。根据对疏散过程及疏散时间的分析,结果表明:合理设置出入口数量、方式及增加楼梯梯段宽度可有效提升人员疏散速度,且仅通过增加出入口并不能显著增加疏散速度,需同步考虑出入口与楼梯宽度之间的协调。以期为该类建筑紧急疏散设计提供参考。     

基于Evacuation NZ疏散模型火灾人员疏散时间研究

为准确计算火灾人员疏散时间,本文基于计算机模拟火灾人员疏散时间的优势,运用Evacuation NZ疏散模型模拟大型建筑物火灾疏散时间,并与传统工程算法的疏散时间以及实际疏散演习时间进行对比。结果表明:Evacuation NZ疏散模型比传统工程算法得出的疏散时间更接近实际,为消防监督人员和建设单位估算模拟疏散时间提供参考。     

Making a case for the consideration of trust,justice, and power in conservation relationships

In conservation, trust and justice are increasingly recognized as both intrinsically valuable and critical for successful socioecological outcomes. However, the interdependence between these concepts has not been explored. The conservation trust literature provides examples of efforts to build trust between conservationists and local actors; yet, these interventions are often conceived to incentivize local cooperation within dominant paradigms. We argue that when trust building is promoted as a technical fix that does not plan in advance to address power asymmetries in conservation practice, inequities may inadvertently be re-embedded. Therefore, we conceptualized a framework that joins trust, justice, and power so that critical analyses of conservation partnerships can be more effectively undertaken. We drew on environmental justice theory to better calibrate the trust literature for the historical-political settings of conservation, especially in the Global South. Justice and trust share strong theoretical links where perceptions of justice shape a willingness to trust, and, equally, trust is a precondition for justice to be perceived. Different forms of trust connect to varied domains of justice and power in different ways, which mediates the outcomes of interventions. We applied our framework to case studies to explore how these interdependences play out in practice. Failure of agencies to attend to issues of maldistribution, misrecognition of cultural values and knowledge, and exclusion from participation strongly compromised trust. Moreover, the ways in which nature-dependent communities and marginalized conservation workers are trusted, or the conditions under which they give trust, can lead to partnerships being perceived as just or unjust. Focusing on trust and justice can help identify power dynamics so they can be addressed more readily and create space for alternative understandings of partnerships.