安全程度的可能性分析方法

提出了安全程度的模糊风险度量方法。在模糊可能性理论基础上研究了非确定因素危险程度的量化表示方法。提出了模糊系统安全分析的逻辑模型。这一方法是与基于概率理论之上的方法完全不同的安全分析方法。给出了基于概率可能性和模糊可能性基础上的安全程度的含义和系统安全分析方法及适用条件     

碳同位素在油气地质研究中的应用和进展

稳定同位素地球化学是发展较快的学科之一，七十年代起被广泛应用于油气地球化学研究中。本文综述了碳稳定同位素在油气地质研究中的应用和进展，这些应用主要包括确定源油的形成环境与形成时代；进行油／油、油／源对比；判别天然气的成因类型并进行对比；判断天然气的成熟度。     

基于空间分析的土地利用垂直分异研究

土地利用现状DTM与DEM进行叠置分析，可以得到不同高程下的土地利用类型数据，依据上述数据对武汉市江夏区的土地利用垂直分异规律进行了研究，内容包括土地利用的垂直结构对比分析及垂直分异规律的定量研究，对不同高程带下的土地利用构成分析可见，土地利用结构呈现明显的垂直变化规律，各种土地类型的绝对数量在区域低海拔段占有绝对优势，而随着高程的增加，土地利用类型明显减少，土地利用的多样性变差，同时，利用刘纪远的土地利用程度综合指数对土地利用垂直分异规律进行定量研究，发现在40m之上和之下土地利用程度呈现出不同的规律性：40米以上土地利用程度随着高程的增加明显下降，高程的自然对数每增加1，土地利用程度扩展综合指数下降42．718；40米以下，土地利用程度综合指数随着高程的增加而上升，与把空间数据“粗化”和“离散化”到行政单元上的传统作法相比，该研究方法空间信息的损失很小。     

建筑物震害的类比预测方法研究

在“同一场地上相似的两幢建筑物,未来具有相似的震害程度”的假设前提下,提出了如何利用一个地区的部分建筑物单体的震害预测结果,对这一地区的其它建筑物单体的震害进行预测的方法,并从结构抗震角度研究了如何用加权Ｈａｍ－ｍｉｎｇ距离度量两幢建筑物的相似程度。     

农业技术进步与要素禀赋的耦合协调度测算

要素禀赋条件是农业发展的根本制约,技术进步是实现我国农业发展方式转变的巨大动力,两者间的高度耦合协调是我国农业现代化的必然要求。改革开放以来,我国农业要素禀赋和技术条件都有所变化。本文从耦合关系的视角,利用耦合协调模型,建立相应的指标体系,分析了改革开放以来我国农业技术进步和要素禀赋的耦合协调性,并对各地区间两者的耦合协调关系进行了比较。结果发现:在过去一段时间内,我国农业要素禀赋结构的优化速度滞后于技术进步的步伐;农业技术进步与要素禀赋的耦合性没有发生明显波动,一直处于颉颃阶段,且呈现出"U"型的变化趋势;1981—2011年间,我国农业技术进步和要素禀赋的耦合协调度逐年提高,已由改革开放初的低度耦合协调发展成为高度耦合协调;各地区间农业技术进步和要素禀赋的耦合性存在一定差异,多数地区两者间耦合协调关系属于中度耦合协调型,北京和西藏两地仍处于低水平耦合阶段,仅江苏、山东、河南、广东四省为高度耦合协调型。在农业改革过程中,应着重强调发挥市场在促进农业技术进步和要素禀赋结构升级中的决定性作用,为实现两者的高度耦合创造良好的制度环境。同时,应充分考虑我国各地区农业要素禀赋条件的差异性,选择与当地要素禀赋相适应的技术类型,以期最大限度地发挥生产要素的作用和技术本身的效率。     

Improvement of Ecological Footprint Method and Application in Henan Province

Abstract

The measure of sustainable development has always been an important and difficulty subject, and the major evaluation model has three types: indicators based on system theory and methods, indicators relied on economic valuation of the environment, sustainability indicators including biophysical assessments. The ecological footprint analysis initiated by William E. Rees, one of the indicators including biophysical assessments, gets rid of the defects of the other models. Ecological footprint has gradually become popular on account of the measuring indexes based on scientific theory, innovative thought-way and its wide adaptability. This paper introduces the conception and computation method, making a progress and making up for the method of ecological footprint, and finally, makes an application analyses through Henan province regional sustainable development.     

Study on the Comprehensive Tourism Development Pattern in Periphery Minority Area: A Case Study of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province,China

Abstract

The paper took the human-land relations as a basic point, and the theories of tourism industry system and sustainable development as the guidance, with Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (Gannan) as the case study area. From microcosmic and macroscopic viewpoints, the author carried out function orientation and evaluation to the tourism industry development, and research on the comprehensive tourism industry development pattern of Gannan. Results show that the fragile ecological environment and the traditional economic growth pattern have restricted regional sustainable development, and made Gannan to become a representative of the periphery minority areas in Northwest China. Tourism development of Gannan is at the primary phase, with the characteristics of short industry chain and low economic efficiency. It is an inevitable choice to transform the way of regional economic growth and the development pattern of tourism industry from the traditional pattern to the pattern of sustainable development. Simultaneously, Gannan's natural, national and religious culture makes Gannan a broad prospect on the comprehensive tourism development. Gannan should choose the comprehensive tourism industry as its scientific pattern to realize sustainable development, promote harmonious social, economic and ecological development, alleviate the human-land contradictory, and realize dual goals in terms of ecology construction and economical development. For Gannan and the similar areas in China, studies on the sustainable development pattern of tourism have extremely important strategic sense with respect to tourism development and the sustainable development of regional economy.     

基于加权灰靶模型的区域铁矿安全生产能力评价

针对铁矿安全产能研究方面的不足,为了从系统的角度对此进行分析,并充分发挥专家的经验而且克服人为因素带来的偏差,首先构建了影响矿山安全生产能力的指标体系,然后借助层次分析法和熵权法确定指标的综合权重。最后,运用灰靶理论对四家铁矿的安全生产能力进行靶心度分析,实现了对四家铁矿安全生产能力的评价。结果表明,四家铁矿的安全产能由高到低排序依次为：张家洼矿、小官庄矿、莱新矿和莱州矿,与实际情况对比验证了方法的准确性。证明该方法为产能的评判提供了理论依据,是一种有效的方法,具有一定的应用价值。     

六自由度动态模拟环境试验系统

六自由度动态模拟环境试验是考核车辆、舰船等运输工具在复线路面谱或海浪谱的运动条件和不同气候环境条件同时作用下的性能可靠性和行驶安全性及其使用寿命的重要模拟试验方法。本文详细介绍了为满足这一试验而研发的六自由度动态模拟环境试验系统。     

Working and Health Conditions of Italian Air Traffic Controllers

The paper summarises some studies carried out in recent years on Italian air traffic controllers. Work stress appeared related mainly to mental charge, aggravated by time pressure and high responsibility. Shiftwork was not considered highly stressful, thanks to the good shift schedules adopted. The disorders most frequently complained of had a prevalent psychosomatic component, concerning the digestive, neuropsychic, and cardiovascular systems. However, their prevalence was lower than, or similar to, that recorded in general population. The controllers engaged in regional centres showed slightly worse health conditions than those engaged in airport towers; the same was found in the radar controllers compared to those working in non-radar positions.