A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

松散煤体渗流传热试验装置研制

为研究松散煤体低温氧化及通风供氧下的渗流传热规律,研发了渗流传热试验装置。试验装置由气体加湿系统、气体加热系统、煤样反应系统、数据采集系统和安全保护系统组成;本装置可实现自动加湿、控温、自动采集数据及处理数据。为解决装置使用和运行中的安全问题,设计了断电保护、有害气体检测等措施,保障试验装置的安全、可靠。     

基于热湿交换理论的巷道风流温、湿度影响因素研究

为了研究巷道风流参数的影响因素、预测风流温湿度的变化规律,结合热湿交换理论,建立了风流与围岩壁面之间热湿交换的数学模型,以及贴体坐标系下围岩内部温度场的导热微分方程;利用数值方法,将围岩内部的导热问题与影响风流参数变化的热湿交换问题耦合起来,并以大柳塔煤矿52505综采工作面为例进行计算,得到了与实测参数较为一致的模拟结果,验证了该数值方法的有效性。研究结果表明:风流温度受原始岩温、入风流温度、局部热源强度等因素的影响,风流相对湿度与入风流温、湿度以及井下湿源的数量和强度有关;巷道壁温作为将围岩温度场与风流参数之间关联起来的主要因素,对模拟结果影响较大,其数值取决于壁面与风流之间热湿交换以及围岩原始岩温。     

城市生活垃圾的DSC和TGA分析与热值估算

利用微分扫描量热仪（ＤＳＣ）准确地测定了城市生活垃圾的含水率；热重分析仪（ＴＧＡ）测定了垃圾的水和低温下有机物总含量、难挥发性有机物和灼烧残渣的含量。根据量热和热量分析结果，可方便地计算垃圾的水和低温条件下易挥发性有机物含量，结合６０９种有机物的燃烧热，估算了垃圾的热值。     

几种裸子植物胚乳愈伤组织的诱导

取裸子植物未成熟胚乳作为外植体，在改良MS、添加不同种类激素和不同浓度配比的培养基上．分别予以热激、光培养、暗培养和刻伤胚乳等多种处理进行培养．结果表明：刻伤胚乳和适时暗培养有利于愈伤组织发生；经过25～30d的培养，在ρ（NAA）＝0．5～0．75mg／L、ρ（2，4－D）＝0．2～0．5mg／L、蔗糖浓度5％的培养基上，油松、白皮松、青、华北落叶松以附加ρ（KT）1．0～2．0mg／L以及白、侧柏在BA与KT配合使用的培养基上，热激后暗培养，愈伤组织诱导频率可达86．4％．     

屋顶绿化生态系统箱的研制

调查发现广州市屋顶自然生长的维管植物有49科109属128种,植物种类较多的科为菊科、禾本科、桑科、景天科、茜草科和鸭跖草科;屋顶自然生长的植物种类数量与环境受污染程度成反比,而与周围植物的多少成正比;屋顶自然生长的植物由于长期适应屋顶的极端环境,形成了的一些独特的生态生物学特征。基于上述结果配置相应的植物组合,设计适于屋顶绿化的生态系统箱、配制相应土壤并进行技术集成,观测其生长和隔热效应。同时进行空白对照、黑网荫蓬对照、生态隔热层对照、普通土壤种植区对比试验,发现生态隔热层和生态系统箱具有成本低、易维持、隔热好、景观美的效果。     

A Numerical and Field Investigation of Surface Heat Fluxes from Small Wind-Sheltered Waterbodies in Semi-Arid Western Australia

Shelterbelts are used for a variety of purposes in agricultural environments, primarily because of their ability to improve the downwind microclimate. Excessive evaporative losses from small, agricultural water supply reservoirs in semi-arid Western Australia motivated a combined numerical modelling and field investigation into the potential for using shelterbelts to reduce evaporation from these open waterbodies. A numerical model of the disturbed momentum and turbulence fields in the region modified by the wind-shelter was employed and accounted for the presence of a waterbody downwind. The model was coupled with conservation equations for heat and moisture and sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated from the simulated momentum, temperature and humidity fields. The numerical simulations were tested against four days of field data from two experiments conducted in the agricultural districts of southwest Western Australia that measured boundary-layer evolution over a variety of small waterbodies protected by artifical and natural wind-shelters. The model provided good predictions of windspeed during neutral conditions, but inadequate specification of the upwind boundary during non-neutral stabilities resulted in the model failing to capture any sensitivity to atmospheric stability as seen in the field data. Despite this limitation, the temperature and humidity fields were adequately captured by the model, and evaporative mass flux predictions also agreed well with estimates taken from water-balance measurements. It is concluded that well-designed wind-shelters can reduce evaporation from open waterbodies by 20–30% as a result of reductions in the velocity scales responsible for removing moisture from the water surface. The model can be used to estimate the values of various shelterbelt design parameters (e.g., porosity, height) that could be applied in the field to provide optimum evaporation reductions.     

城市热岛效应研究进展

作为现代城市气候主要特征之一的城市热岛效应有日渐严重的趋势。文章综述了城市热岛的生态环境效应、热岛的主要形成机制、时空分布特征等研究状况和发展趋势；基于当前城市热岛研究的现状，提出了未来城市热岛效应研究的方向及缓解城市热岛效应的有关对策。     

汽车尾气催化转化器模型研究进展

本文主要介绍汽车尾气催化转化器模型的研究进展 ,包括反应器内气体流动特性、单通道反应器内的传递现象和反应动力学、通道间的热传递和反应行为的模拟 ;并指出认识反应器内的各种特性和规律对设计汽车尾气催化转化器的必要性和意义     

相变储能光伏太阳能热泵干燥系统的研究

建立了相变储能光伏太阳能热泵干燥系统实验平台,介绍了系统的运行方式以及太阳能光伏集热蒸发器与直流压缩机的匹配计算,最后对实验数据进行了分析。结果表明,太阳能辐照量为800 W/m~2、光伏集热蒸发器面积为12 m~2的条件下,系统制热功率为10 k W,太阳能光伏集热蒸发器发电量为6.2 k W·h,大于直流压缩机的耗电量,满足供电要求;实验所得系统COP为3.25。相变储能可以解决太阳辐照波动导致的系统运行不稳定问题,具有显著的节能性和环保性。