基于Logistic回归模型的大兴安岭地区林火发生概率预测研究*

为实现对大兴安岭地区林火发生概率的基本预测,根据该地区历史火灾资料、地形因子、气象因子和人为因子,基于Logistic回归模型建立该地区林火发生概率预测模型。研究结果表明:坡度、海拔、平均气压、平均气温、平均相对湿度、最小相对湿度是该地区林火发生的主要驱动因子;坡度、海拔、平均气压、平均气温与林火发生概率呈正相关,平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度与林火发生概率呈负相关;ROC曲线下面积值（AUC）为0.91,最佳临界值为0.425;建立的大兴安岭地区林火发生概率预测模型,建模样本总体准确率为82.4%,验证样本总体准确率为80.5%;该地区夏季林火发生概率明显高于春、秋季;林火发生概率较高的Ⅳ级和Ⅴ级火险区主要集中在夏季该地区东南部、西部以及春、秋季该地区东南部。研究结果可为该地区林火预测提供1种参考方法。     

商业建筑营业厅疏散楼梯总宽度设计与计算

依据经建生等人的观点,在商场营业厅人员换算系数及百人疏散指标这两个参数不变的情况下,商场营业厅疏散楼梯总宽度设计值取决于营业厅的面积折算值,并建议地上商业建筑的取值为0.5～0.7.研究表明,将营业厅面积折算值应用于商业建筑设计得出的楼梯间总宽度偏大.本文基于安全且经济地完成防火设计任务的理念,首先从调整商场营业厅面积折算值和将自动扶梯宽度计入疏散楼梯总宽度的角度进一步完善大型商场营业厅疏散楼梯总宽度设计,使其更趋于合理;然后应用火灾模拟软件及人员疏散时间公式进行验算,证明人员疏散是安全的,即本文提供的两种方法是可行的,从而为<建筑设计防火规范>的修编提供参考.     

我国消防工程专业学历教育前景和亟待解决的问题

随着社会对公共安全的重视,对消防工程人才提出了更高的要求,培养高素质消防工程专业人才已成为保障社会经济发展的重要课题之一。消防工程专业学历教育是培养专业消防人才的主要途径。笔者回顾了国内外消防工程专业学历教育的发展历程,分析其现状,展望了我国消防工程专业学历教育的发展前景,研讨和总结了目前我国消防工程专业学历教育中在培养目标、课程建设、实验建设、教材建设、招生就业等方面存在的问题,结合中南大学消防工程专业学历教育的实践,针对学历教育中存在问题,提出建设性的意见。     

超薄型钢结构防火涂料的热解动力学研究

利用岛津DTG-60H型热重分析仪,在氮气气氛、升温速率为15 ℃/min条件下,对自行配制的一种超薄型钢结构防火涂料的热分解过程进行了分析,发现该防火涂料的热解过程可分为5个阶段.用Coats-Redfern积分方法分阶段对TG曲线数据进行了处理,并用常见的12种反应机理方程进行拟合,发现各阶段反应机理不尽相同: 第一阶段属于一维扩散反应机理D1,第二、第三阶段为1.5级化学反应模型RO(1.5),第四阶段为二级化学反应模型RO(2),第五阶段为一级化学反应模型RO(1).同时,求解出了各阶段的热解动力学参数及动力学方程.     

金属填料塔火灾事故及预防

阐述了金属填料着火的原因、预防金属填料着火的措施以及应急反应的注意事项.     

Property rights and grassland degradation: a study of the Xilingol pasture, Inner Mongolia, China

The semi-private property rights arrangement called the Household Production Responsibility System (HPRS) was started in the early 1980s in Xilingol pasture of Inner Mongolia (China), and stimulated the development of stockbreeding. The grassland has been degrading severely with increasing numbers of livestock. Based on a historical review of property rights regimes in Inner Mongolia and empirical surveys in Xilingol pasture during 2001-2003, this paper assesses the implementation of HPRS and its impacts on incomes of households as well as the environmental impact on the grassland. It was found that HPRS does not mitigate the "Tragedy of the Commons", instead it has exacerbated the situation. It was also found that co-management of grassland and livestock among a few households presents a sustainable use of grassland to develop livestock breeding. We conclude with the recommendation that small-scale collective property rights systems should be encouraged in Xilingol pasture of Inner Mongolia.     

多源数据融合的城市区域型消防风险分布特征研究 ——以太原都市圈所在区域为例

分析区域消防风险的空间演化特征,针对性建立并调整消防站点,可预见性地降低消防风险.以太原都市圈所在区域作为研究对象,将遥感数据、POI兴趣点数据经标准化处理后融入GIS-GANP模型中,识别城市区域间特异性消防风险因子,探讨区域消防风险系数及空间分布特征,并多角度分析消防站点规划趋势.结果表明:POI数据符合区域融合发...     

热压机防火问题探讨

针对企业在热压机防火 方面的薄弱环节，具体分析着火原因，从多方面提出了防范措施。     

基于FTA-Petri网的地铁火灾事故安全性研究

鉴于城市轨道交通安全的复杂性及重要性,应用FTA-Petri综合分析方法对城市轨道交通系统安全性进行分析并构建轨道交通系统火灾事故安全性模型。该模型具有FTA与Petri网方法的优点。在利用传统的FTA方法深入分析火灾事故原因的基础上,选择典型的火灾事故成因,利用Petri网方法动态模拟火灾事故发生的过程;借鉴已有的概率计算方法对所建立的火灾Petri网模型进行定量求解分析;最后,针对分析结果提出可行性方案。提出将FTA-Petri综合分析方法应用到城市轨道交通安全领域,在地铁火灾安全性定量分析方面作出了探索性的研究。     

Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.