DROUGHT PLANNING: A PROCESS FOR STATE GOVERNMENT1

ABSTRACT: Drought has been a prevalent feature of the American landscape during the latter part of the 1980s, producing serious socioeconomic and environmental consequences. These recent experiences with drought have renewed concern about the inadequacy of federal and state contingency planning efforts and the lack of coordination for assessment and response efforts between these levels of government. This paper presents the results of research aimed at facilitating the preparation of drought contingency plans by state government in conjunction with a state's overall water management planning activity. The ten-step drought plan development process reported is intended to improve mitigation efforts through more timely, effective, and efficient assessment and response activities. Officials in appropriate state agencies should examine the proposed framework and alter it to best address drought-related concerns, adding or deleting elements as necessary.     

石油工业废弃物处置及其生物治理趋势

鉴于我国石油工作者对石油工业废弃物的普遍关注，现在介绍生物治理的基本概念及ＳＰＥ石油工程师协会中有关含油污泥生物处置的途径及其突出优越性。生物液／固处理工艺（ＬＳＴ）是目前含油污泥处置现场最经济可行的处置方案。这种好氧的ＬＳＴ工艺过程，能够比较充分地代谢和降解石油污泥中的油和脂并大量除去多环芳烃类（ＰＡＨ）化合物及其它有机化合物，明显地降低了石油废弃物对人、畜的毒害程度。其工艺较简单，操作也简易，凡经此工艺处理后的废弃物不留残毒和后患，因此早已被世界上先进国家的炼油业视为处理含油污泥的有效选择了。石油工业废弃物的生物防治和生物降解工艺较大程度地领先于目前我国现场正在执行的各种处理含油废弃物的处理工艺。     

浅谈行业环境监测站的任务与作用

我国环境问题日趋严重，环境污染和生态破坏已成为社会发展的制约因素。然而，有些企业忽视环境保护工作，取消或合并环境监测站，削弱环境监测力量。针对这种情况，从行业环境监测站的任务、作用和不可取代性方面阐述了强化行业环境监测站建设的必要性。     

Safe use of refrigerants for process applications

This paper examines safety issues, with emphasis on central refrigeration plant for process applications. Plantroom hazards including refrigerant leakage, excess pressure, fire and noise are covered. It is concluded that routine surveys which are being conducted in connection with the chlorofluorocarbon and hydrochlorofluorocarbon phase-outs present an opportunity for examining safety issues.     

Trends and issues in land and water resources management: Setting the agenda for change

The classical model of a paradigm shift is used to explore changes that are occurring in public lands and water resources management. Recent policy developments suggest that the traditional paradigm, which is characterized by sustained yield, is in the process of being invalidated. While no new paradigm has been fully accepted, the emerging paradigm does appear to be based on two principles: ecosystem management and collaborative decision making. Implementation of these two principles is likely to require extensive revision of traditional management practices and institutions. Failure to address these issues could result in adoption of the rhetoric of change without any lasting shift in management practices or professional attitudes.     

Improving lake riparian source area management using surface and subsurface runoff indices

Sensitivity indices, which rank factors pertinent to surface and subsurface runoff pathways, were used to identify phosphorus source areas in riparian zones of 15 northern Minnesota lakes. Watershed models were first developed using a geographic information system (GIS). Empirical models were then developed correlating water quality with land use, lake morphometry, and riparian sensitivity. Base models of forested, cultivated, pasture/open, wetland and residential land use within 100, 200, 400, and 2000 m of the study lakes were regressed on total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a. Area-weighted groundwater and surface runoff sensitivity indices were then incorporated into each model and tested for significance. Within the 200-m buffer, the total phosphorus base model was improved by including the groundwater index alone. The chlorophyll-a base model at 200 m was improved by including: (1) the groundwater index alone, and (2) both the groundwater and surface runoff sensitivity indices. Results suggest that surface and subsurface runoff analysis of potential source areas can improve decision making for lake riparian management.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

Application of the randomized response technique to marine park management: an assessment of permit compliance

Marine product collecting permits are useful management tools for providing information on usage patterns. Unfortunately, usage parameters based on permit issuance are invariably inaccurate because of permit noncompliance. Since noncompliance is a prosecutable offense, any attempt to estimate the rate of noncompliance by direct survey techniques is met with misleading and evasive responses. It has been shown elsewhere that randomized response designs reduce survey response bias to incriminating questions by ensuring respondent anonymity. With the use of the randomized response survey technique, estimates of permit noncompliance were determined for the Capricornia Section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Noncompliance with the requirement to obtain the prescribed permit was found to be low whereas, once a permit was obtained, noncompliance with specific permit conditions was considered high. Reasons for the high rate of noncompliance with specific conditions are presented, and it is recommended that marine park managers should not unreservedly base management decisions on usage data derived simply from permit issuance.     

LONG-TERM PATTERNS OF WATER QUALITY IN A MANAGED WATERSHED IN OREGON: 1. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT1

The cumulative effects of forest management activities on water quality at a downstream point were monitored from 1972-1980 during development of a watershed for timber resources. Suspended sediment concentration and turbidity were measured at two hydrologic stations which bracketed a 10-km reach of the Middle Santiam River in the Western Cascades of Oregon as it flowed through an 8000-ha block of intensively managed forest land. Slope failures often accompany road building and harvesting in steep forested watersheds and pose the most serious threat to water quality. Although 180 km of road were constructed and 3400 ha of old-growth forests were harvested from slopes averaging over 60 percent, long-term changes in sediment yields remained undetectable during the period of measurement. The geologic characteristics of the basin and the road construction and maintenance techniques as prescribed by Oregon's forest practice regulations helped to minimize the occurrence of slope failures so that long-term changes in suspended sediment export rates did not occur. Throughout the nine-year measurement period, seven slope failures which added sediment directly to streams produced measurable short-term responses at the downstream sampling location, but these erosion events were too small and too infrequent to produce long-term changes in sediment yield from the watershed.     

FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING MODELING IN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented.