石化装置火灾爆炸贝叶斯网络与防护层集成分析

复杂的石油化工装置在运转过程中存在诸多不确定因素,易发生火灾、爆炸等重大事故,给安全生产带来极大威胁。考虑到传统的系统安全分析方法在风险评估中存在一定局限性,引入贝叶斯网络与防护层集成分析模型。应用GeNIe软件将系统故障树转成贝叶斯网络,根据贝叶斯双向推理进行故障预测和诊断,快速识别系统薄弱环节并确定为风险贝叶斯故障节点,结合防护层分析提出相应的独立防护层,确定剩余风险水平。实例应用表明,所构建的贝叶斯网络与防护层集成分析模型对复杂系统进行风险评估是可行的,较传统的事件树、故障树分析方法更加科学、合理。     

美国化学防护服试验与评价用机器人PETMAN研究

美国化学防护服防护因数测试方法-MIST法是评价化学防护服整体防护性能关键技术指标的通行方法,针对现有MIST方法中存在无法对真人采用实际的有毒有害物质对化学防护服进行评价的不足,采用机器人PETMAN替代真人进行MIST试验与评价的需求日益明显。本文针对PETMAN的主要技术构成和相关需求部门提出的要求,详细介绍了研制过程中需要考虑的关键因素,并概述了项目的研究过程以及当前的研究成果。     

Experimental studies of crevice corrosion for buried pipeline with disbonded coatings under cathodic protection

Numerous fire and explosion accidents have occurred because of pipeline ruptures through the corrosion area. Coatings under cathodic protection (CP) have been recognized to prevent/mitigate potential pipeline corrosion. In this work, a wedge-shaped crevice assembly was developed to study the effect of cathodic protection on corrosion of 20# steel pipeline with disbanded coatings. Polarization potential, current density, solution pH value, and dissolved oxygen concentration were measured by using the simulation of crevice area with disbonded coatings. Results have demonstrated that CP cannot reach the crevice bottom which reduces the effectiveness of corrosion protection. This effectiveness depends on the crevice geometry and could be improved with the increase of crevice length and decrease of its mouth size. A potential difference always exists between the mouth area and inside crevice. The oxygen concentrations drop significantly inside crevice whether CP is applied or not. The solution pH values inside crevice increase with the time. The solution pH values are higher when the applied CP potentials are more negative. According to the experiments, the effectiveness of cathodic protection could also be improved through enhancement of the local solution alkalinity. The research provides necessary information to prevent potential pipeline ruptures due to crevice corrosion and therefore mitigate potential losses for oil and gas transportation in the process industries.     

Validation of the UN test method N.5

Many substances react with water in such a way that flammable gases are formed. For transport issues this reaction may possess a considerable hazard especially if the cargo is wetted by rain or by water from other sources. In the UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods these kinds of problems are addressed. The UN test N.5 “Test method for substances which in contact with water emit flammable gases” corresponds to this hazard. Classification according to the test method is done by measurement of the gas evolution rate of the flammable gas by any suitable procedure. At BAM a gravimetric approach is used to measure the gas evolution rate. In this paper we present the evaluation of the apparatus by means of an absolute calibration routine utilizing a reaction where a known amount of gas is produced as well as the evaluation of important parameters influencing the gas evolution rate using different substances. It can be shown that the apparatus is capable of measuring absolute gas volumes as low as 6 mL with an acceptable error of about 17% as determined from the reaction of Mg with demineralized water.     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

飞机发动机舱灭火剂用量试验验证与优化研究

为提升飞机的安全性,飞机防火系统越来越受到重视。航空防火系统中常用灭火剂Halon 1301会破坏臭氧层、造成环境污染,但至今仍未找到理想的替代品。从优化灭火剂的用量着手,以达到降低污染、减轻飞机重量的目的。目前灭火剂的用量没有结合实际仅依靠理论公式进行计算,为优化灭火剂用量,以某型飞机发动机舱防火系统为例,通过模拟真实环境试验验证不同灭火剂用量下的灭火效果。结果表明优化灭火剂用量后依然能充分地保证灭火效果。     

基于健康度分析的电网单元设备集可靠性评估研究

电网作为一类关键基础设施,能否安全稳定运行直接关系到社会的安全稳定以及经济发展。对电网进行可靠性评估,找到薄弱环节并给予增强稳固来提高电网整体抗扰性,降低电网风险,具有重要现实意义。在构建电网网络结构中节点单元的可靠性评估模型时,以设备可靠性模型为基础,将电网设备的健康度分析、老化度分析引入可靠性评估模型,一定程度上减少了可靠性评估模型中人为主观因素的影响;同时,将动态健康度预测和静态健康度总结进行综合,减少了各自评估的缺点,为可靠性评估提供了更为准确的变量信息,能够更为准确的区分不同设备的安全性程度。通过评估模型的构建和Q市电网算例的应用,表明该模型可以有效、快捷的衡量电网设备信息,为电网一线工作人员提供了较为方便的评估手段。     

Health impact and noise exposure assessment in the cricket bat industry of Kashmir,India

Aim. The aim of the present study was to identify and evaluate predominant noise sources in the cricket bat industry of Kashmir, India. Methods. Sound levels were measured at operator’s ear level in the working zone of the workers of seven cricket bat factories. The impact assessment was made through personal interviews with each worker separately during their period of rest. Results. On average, 62.5% of the workers reported difficulty in hearing and 24.1% of the workers have become patients for hypertension. Only 58.1% of the workers complained of headache due to high noise level. Conclusions. The workers engaged in the cricket bat industry of Kashmir are exposed to high noise levels. It is suggested that personal protective equipment like ear plugs and ear muffs be used by these workers as a protection against this hazard.     

A fuzzy logic and probabilistic hybrid approach to quantify the uncertainty in layer of protection analysis

Layer of protection analysis (LOPA) is a widely used semi-quantitative risk assessment method. It provides a simplified and less precise method to assess the effectiveness of protection layers and the residual risk of an incident scenario. The outcome failure frequency and consequence of that residual risk are intended to be conservative by prudently selecting input data, given that design specification and component manufacturer's data are often overly optimistic. There are many influencing factors, including design deficiencies, lack of layer independence, availability, human factors, wear by testing and maintenance shortcomings, which are not quantified and are dependent on type of process and location. This makes the risk in LOPA usually overestimated. Therefore, to make decisions for a cost-effective system, different sources and types of uncertainty in the LOPA model need to be identified and quantified. In this study, a fuzzy logic and probabilistic hybrid approach was developed to determine the mean and to quantify the uncertainty of frequency of an initiating event and the probabilities of failure on demand (PFD) of independent protection layers (IPLs). It is based on the available data and expert judgment. The method was applied to a distillation system with a capacity to distill 40 tons of flammable n-hexane. The outcome risk of the new method has been proven to be more precise compared to results from the conventional LOPA approach.