基于事故树的三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件诱因分析

三峡库区蓄水后对长江水体自净能力的极大削弱,沿江聚集的各类生产、生活活动对长江水质的多渠道污染极易引发库区各类水体污染公共安全事件。结合对库区水体污染公共安全事件多维度诱发因素的调研结果,运用事故树的分析方法对三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件的逐级诱发过程进行分析。研究表明：存在13条诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件的路径以及3条防治水体污染公共安全事件的路径;在不考虑诱因发生概率的情况下,排污因素是诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件最重要、最根本的因素,促成库区水体自净能力下降的回水区变长,水流紊动减弱和水位抬升三方面因素是次重要的诱发因素。只有对不同的诱因施行不同的监测和控制策略,才能对库区水体污染公共安全事件开展有效预警、预控.     

Paying for International Environmental Public Goods

Supply of international environmental public goods must meet certain conditions to be socially efficient, and several reasons explain why they are currently undersupplied. Diagnosis of the public goods failure associated with particular ecosystem services is critical to the development of the appropriate international response. There are two categories of international environmental public goods that are most likely to be undersupplied. One has an additive supply technology and the other has a weakest link supply technology. The degree to which the collective response should be targeted depends on the importance of supply from any one country. In principle, the solution for the undersupply lies in payments designed to compensate local providers for the additional costs they incur in meeting global demand. Targeted support may take the form of direct investment in supply (the Global Environment Facility model) or of payments for the benefits of supply (the Payments for Ecosystem Services model).     

2008年低温雨雪冰冻对武汉城市公共交通的影响评估

为了对2008年低温雨雪期间气象条件对城市交通运输的影响给出定量评估,运用天气分析及统计学方法,分析了低温雨雪冰冻期间武汉市主要气候特征,利用2008年初持续低温雨雪期间武汉城市公共交通线路（包括公交车、轮渡、汽渡）逐日停运数据,定义了持续低温雨雪冰冻过程城市公共交通影响度,通过统计分析,找到了关键气象因子、关键期和低温临界指标,建立了气象评估模型。结果表明：在持续低温雨雪冰冻过程中,初发时期是公共交通影响的关键时期之一,影响度与积雪深度关系最密切,在公交车、轮渡、汽渡3种交通工具中,公交车影响度与气象要素的相关最密切,对武汉城市公交车造成明显影响的临界气温是17℃。该结论在实际的气象灾害评估业务工作中进行了运用,效果良好     

基于适应性管理的水污染控制体系构建——以太湖流域为例

从规划内容与目标、规划方法及方案实施和评估3方面对太湖近20年水污染物控制历程进行综合分析,认为太湖水污染物控制正处面源污染、生活污染及新型污染问题凸显且更难处理,更为广泛的利益相关者和科研队伍积极参与的转型期.这种变化将导致污染治理面临更难应付的动态性和复杂性,使得当前以环境容量为总量为指导通过自上而下分配排污量和削减量的控制方案面临极大挑战.结合太湖水污染现状,通过与现行治理方法在管理假设、适合对象、协调管理手段、管理目标、规划方法、公众参与程度以及规划的优劣势等方面的比较发现,适应性管理可以积极有效应对由于环境趋势和管理协调对象变化所带来的系统不确定性和复杂性,将是一个积极有效的补充方法.同时,本文基于适应性管理提出了太湖水环境污染物排放控制体系的构建框架,突出适应性管理平台、科学研究及公众与基层单位参与在污染物控制中的重要作用.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: COMBINING NOMINAL GROUP PROCESS AND MICROCOMPUTERS1

ABSTRACT: The growing concern for public participation in water resource decision-making has invited researchers to improve and develop reliable, quick, and inexpensive techniques for measuring public preferences. It is increasingly clear that traditional participation mechanisms, though useful, are no longer sufficient in providing the level of participation desired by many. A combination of microcomputer technology with Nominal Group Process (a step-by-step process ending in ranked recommendations) offers numerous possibilities for active participatory planning. Efforts at participation occurring through a well developed and defined process cannot be successful without a sensitivity to the conceptual, methodological, and pragmatic problems involved. This paper prefaces presentation of an alternative active process technique with discussion of the theoretical basis of participatory democracy and the frustration with practical implementation procedures.     

Collective action and the traditional village

This article considers the dispute between moral economy and rational peasant theories of agrarian societies in application to problems of collective action. The moral-economy theory holds that traditional peasant society is organized cooperatively through shared moral values and communal institutions; while the rational-peasant theory maintains that peasant society shows the mark of rational individual calculation, leading to free-rider problems that undermine successful collective action. This article offers an abstract model of a traditional village and assesses the applicability of recent qualifications of the collective action argument to this model. It will emerge that the social characteristics of the traditional village embody features that facilitate collective action by rational peasants.     

PUBLIC INFORMATION AND CITIZEN INVOLVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Public information, an important contributer to citizen involvement in the governmental decision making process, has traditionally been given a low priority by government agencies. However, citizens are becoming increasingly concerned about governmental decisions that affect their lives and are demanding more information about governmental activities, including information about water resource issues, Because of this active citizen interest and involvement, the role of public information in increasing citizen awareness is becoming more important. Government officials and professionals should recognize that public information efforts also play an important role in achieving increased credibility and respect for their agencies. Once an agency recognizes the importance of public information and decides to initiate a public information program, careful planning is required to develop a program that addresses the needs of both the citizens and the agency. Two of the most flexible and cost effective ways to get information to the publié are through publications and public meetings. Both can be easily adapted to suit the needs of specific audiences and projects. A successful public information program can be carried out at a relatively low cost, but it requires a substantial amount of time and energy. The commitment of time and energy for this purpose is a good investment, however, because an effective public information program can play a significant role in improving the quality of governmental decisions through the increased involvement of the citizenry.     

NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN OREGON WELL WATER: GEOLOGIC VARIABILITY AND THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION1

ABSTRACT: Approximately 4.5 million people in the United States who rely on well water are exposed to nitrate‐N concentrations exceeding the 10 mg/l standard. In this study in the Southern Willamette Valley in Oregon we reassessed nitrate‐N in rural wells sampled in 2000–2001, compared nitrate‐N concentrations among geological units, and surveyed residents about their perceptions of well water quality. Nitrate‐N concentrations were again sampled in 2002 and found to have increased significantly from the previous period. With rapid population growth in the area, the potential health risk in drinking well water that exceeds 10 mg/l nitrate‐N warrants continued public education. Nitrate‐N concentrations were found to be higher in the Holocene alluvium of the Willamette River and the Pleistocene sand and gravel post‐Missoula Flood deposits. Researchers conducting future studies may choose to stratify and monitor wells by geologic unit and by other parameters that estimate input of nutrients to the environment. Opinions differed between agricultural landowners and nonagricultural landowners with regard to the impact that agricultural fertilizers may have on water quality. Participants were supportive of a range of regulatory actions that might be used by homeowners or landowners to address ground water contamination. Given that the area is now designated a Groundwater Management Area, understanding local stakeholders’perceptions is critical and strategic and has the potential to help public agencies manage potential conflicts of opinion among stakeholders, build consensus, and help guide the approach to restoring ground water quality.     

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST1

ABSTRACT. The water resources manager, concerned with providing for citizen needs for water in all its varied aspects, is obliged to consider the public interest in his decision making. But the public interest, although inferring the superiority of public over purely private interests, is more of a concept of political ethics than an operational objective. Recent attacks on water resources developments place in question just how responsive the water resources manager has been to the public at large during the planning process. The recent broadening of planning objectives beyond economic efficiency to include greater attention to social goals is an encouraging development. Efforts should be expanded toward greater citizen participation and more attention should be given to sampling surveys to determine citizen attitudes on water resources proposals. In the last analysis, the decision-making process must combine the expertise of the water resources manager and the participation of the people through the political process.     

OPINIONS RELATING TO FLUORIDATION: DEVELOPMENT OF MEASURES1

ABSTRACT. Elected officials, technical specialists and the public are talking more about “citizen input” into the decision process, and how the people view a given issue or kind of public service. However, problem definition and valid instruments are needed before we can meaningfully predict or understand public attitude relating to a particular issue or concept. The fluoridation of community water supplies was chosen for the present methodological demonstration. This issue achieves a high level of controversy among many public segments [Crain, Katz and Rosenthal, 1969; Davis, 1959; McNeal, 1957]. By 1950, there was widespread endorsement for a national program relating to controlled water fluoridation. Yet, public acceptance of this particular technological advance has not been very high.