现代系统安全观点分析及分层安全模型研究*

为适应系统复杂性的提高和智能科学及数据技术的涌现，分析现代系统安全观点，并提出系统的分层安全模型，以应对系统安全及可靠性面临的质疑和变革。根据Leveson提出的学术观点，提出分层的系统安全模型。通过论述7个系统安全研究的新观点，提出系统安全的层级结构，分为社会层、系统层、技术层和运行层；建立系统安全的虫洞模型；结果表明:通过该方法可得到系统故障过程区划图和故障过程有向图，同时空间故障树理论也可用于该模型的定量计算。     

基于随机Petri网的平交道口建模及事故率分析

基于公路道口使用者的违规进入及违规人数比例是道口发生事故的主要原因为背景,分析道口使用者违规进入道口前的平均等待时间及违规比例,列车在各个区段的时间特性与道口事故率之间的定量关系。采用随机Petri网基于道口公路使用者、道口铁路列车的经过道口过程、道口安全防护系统功能及三者之间的相关性进行建模及事故率分析。根据模型的仿真表明:当列车由道口传感器区进入接近区的时间和由接近区进入道口的时间由随机值变为固定值时,道口事故率大大降低;公路使用者在违规进入道口前,等待某个时间后进入道口发生事故的风险最大。当列车由接近区进入道口的时间为随机值时,公路使用者的违规比例增加会明显加大事故率。     

清洁生产定量评价方法及其应用

本文运用专家调查打分法，以承德帝贤兴业造纸项目为例，初步分析了清洁生产量化评价的方法在建设项目环境影响评价中的应用。     

Effect of Information Availability on Assessment and Designation of Species at Risk

Abstract: Information required to evaluate the extent to which species are at risk of extinction is usually limited and characterized as highly uncertain. In this context, we define information availability as the presence or absence of information used to determine the value of an ecological variable. We examined which of three hypothetical approaches best matched how levels of risk are assigned to species: (1) precautionary approach in which analysts designate levels of risk regardless of the amount of information available, (2) worst‐case approach in which analysts assign the maximum level of risk possible from the criteria, and (3) insurance approach in which analysts assign poorly known species to a high‐risk category when little information is available. We used the quantitative assessment criteria of the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) as a case study. We created a binary (0/1) matrix of all 2.4192 × 10⁷ logical combinations of available information for the 14 ecological variables included in the quantitative criteria. We processed each combination of information availability represented in the matrix with a computer algorithm designed to emulate COSEWIC decision‐making rules. Low information availability was associated with a relatively high frequency of not being able to assign a candidate taxon to a risk category, which does not follow the precautionary principle. Information availability and the level of risk assigned to species were directly related, which is associated with the worst‐case approach, and counter to the insurance approach. Our results suggest that information availability can have a major effect on the level of risk assigned to a species. We recommend a conscious determination of whether such effects are desired, and we recommend the development of methods to explicitly characterize and incorporate information availability and other sources of uncertainty in decision‐making processes.     

颗粒物防护口罩适合因子的影响因素研究

为设计适合国人的防护口罩,利用定量适合性检验和人体头面部尺寸测量的方法,探索影响口罩适合因子(FF)的因素。对4种颗粒物防护口罩(3M8210,3M8210v,3M9332和3M9010)的FF进行检测;测量口罩佩戴者的形态面长、面宽、两耳屏间宽、两下颌角间宽、鼻高、鼻长、鼻宽和两耳屏点间颌下弧长等头面部尺寸数据;计算身体质量指数(BMI)。探讨头面部尺寸、BMI、性别及口罩型号对FF的影响。研究表明:显著影响口罩FF的因素是头面部尺寸和口罩型号,其余因素对FF无显著影响;设计防护口罩应考虑我国人群头面部尺寸特点。     

济南城市热岛动态变化遥感定量监测及其驱动因素分析研究

城市热岛是城市发展过程中遇到的难题,对人居环境造成较大影响.定量分析研究城市时空演变特征,探究热岛驱动因素,有助于为城市热岛动态变化分析提供技术支撑.论文以济南市为研究对象,采用2000年-2009年间7-8月份MODIS LST数据,分析10年间热岛变化特征.结果表明,10年间,济南城区温度明显高于郊区,热岛效应显著,并且,热核区、特高温区等区域呈现周期性扩张与收缩规律;通过提取2000年及2009年济南市人工表面与植被面积,发现2009年比2000年人工表面面积扩张33.33％,植被减少6.76％,且人工表面扩张与植被减少的区域大部分重合,这对城市热岛形成产生了一定促进作用.另一方面,通过统计分析2000年与2009年人口数量、机动车保有量、烟尘排放量数据,分析济南城市热岛驱动因素,结合城市规划建设,为缓解济南城市热岛提出参考性建议.     

Quantification of viable bacteria in wastewater treatment plants by using propidium monoazide combined with quantitative PCR (PMA-qPCR)

The detection of viable bacteria in wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs) is very important for public health, as WWTPs are a medium with a high potential for waterborne disease transmission. The aim of this study was to use propidium monoazide(PMA) combined with the quantitative polymerase chain reaction(PMA-qPCR) to selectively detect and quantify viable bacteria cells in full-scale WWTPs in China. PMA was added to the concentrated WWTP samples at a final concentration of 100 μmol/L and the samples were incubated in the dark for 5 min, and then lighted for 4 min prior to DNA extraction and qPCR with specific primers for Escherichia coli and Enterococci, respectively. The results showed that PMA treatment removed more than 99% of DNA from non-viable cells in all the WWTP samples, while matrices in sludge samples markedly reduced the effectiveness of PMA treatment. Compared to qPCR, PMA-qPCR results were similar and highly linearly correlated to those obtained by culture assay, indicating that DNA from non-viable cells present in WWTP samples can be eliminated by PMA treatment, and that PMA-qPCR is a reliable method for detection of viable bacteria in environmental samples. This study demonstrated that PMA-qPCR is a rapid and selective detection method for viable bacteria in WWTP samples, and that WWTPs have an obvious function in removing both viable and non-viable bacteria. The results proved that PMA-qPCR is a promising detection method that has a high potential for application as a complementary method to the standard culture-based method in the future.     

体育赛场人群疏散过程滞留人数定量模型研究

体育赛场历史事故统计分析表明,出口堵塞为导致人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的主要原因.滞留人群是疏散过程最常见的一种人流形式,同时也是拥挤踩踏事故风险的主要承载体.基于人群流量与人群密度关系建立了体育赛场时间维变量的滞留人数定量模型.体育赛场看台不同宽度出口人群疏散计算结果表明,滞留人数不仅对人群疏散时间有直接影响,而且与事故发生概率之间存在一定的关系.该模型可用于指导体育赛场出口设计,疏散路线选择及应急预案的编制等.     

邻苯二甲酸酯类化合物正辛醇-水分配系数的QSPR研究

采用PM3算法计算邻苯二甲酸酯类化合物(PAEs)的量子化学参数,应用偏最小二乘(PLS)算法建立了PAEs的正辛醇-水分配系数(K_OW)的定量结构-性质相关(QSPR)模型.模型的结果表明,用量子化学参数建立的QSPR模型相关性显著,具有较好的稳健性和预测能力,因此,利用该模型可对其他PAEs分子的lgK_OW值进行初步预测.模型的结果表明,影响lgK_OW的主要量子化学参数是分子总能量TE、相对分子质量M_r、平均分子极化率α和分子生成热ΔH_f.lgK_OW随着M_r和α的增大而增大,随着TE和ΔH_f的增大而减小.     

石油安全指标体系与综合评价

为科学评价我国石油安全的程度,从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力等4个方面,设计了石油安全评价指标体系。采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取储采比、储量替代率、石油消费对外依存度、石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平等6个个指标,构成一个新的综合指标:石油安全度,用其对我国石油安全形势进行定量评价。将石油安全度的安全警戒划分为五级:I级1～0.8,基本安全;II级0.8～0.6,弱安全;III级0.6～0.4,不安全;Ⅳ级0.4～0.2,很不安全;V级0.2以下,严重不安全。1993-2004年,我国石油安全度为0.54～0.75,处于弱安全到不安全之间。