滇池生态安全综合评估研究

湖泊水库的生态安全是湖库区(流)域人民赖以生存和社会经济可持续发展的重要基础.通过深入剖析湖库生态安全的内涵,运用湖库生态安全综合评估模型,从人类活动压力、湖库水体健康和湖库生态服务功能三方面评价了滇池1999~2007年间的生态安全状况.结果表明,通过污染物排放总量的控制,至2007年人类活动对滇池产生的直接压力已有效减轻,然而湖体水质状况却未得以根本改善,多年来滇池生态安全状况处于Ⅳ级,即生态安全状况较差.     

太湖表层底泥中产毒蓝藻群落结构和种群丰度的时空变化

为了研究太湖底泥中产毒蓝藻群落结构和种群丰度的时空变化,分别于2010年冬季(2月)、春季(4月)和夏季(6月)采集太湖不同湖区底泥样品,应用基于mcyA基因的聚合酶链式反应-变性梯度凝胶电泳(PCR-DGGE)和实时定量PCR(QPCR)技术分析底泥样品.结果表明,产毒蓝藻在太湖底泥中分布广泛,其群落结构和种群丰度存在空间和季节差异性:不同湖区间群落组成相似性系数变化范围为67%～97%;冬季、春季和夏季底泥中产毒蓝藻群落结构的香农多样性指数变化范围分别为2.774～3.392、1.649～2.619和0.681～1.996,呈逐渐下降趋势;且香农多样性指数与样品中优势基因型所占比例呈极显著负相关(p<0.01,r=-0.95);从冬季到夏季,底泥中蓝藻复苏进入水体中,产毒蓝藻种群丰度逐渐降低.底泥中产毒蓝藻群落结构和种群丰度的动态变化与温度、光照、溶解氧、电导率和pH值密切相关.     

珠三角SO_2污染区划及来源的定量研究

文章利用珠三角粤港空气质量监测网13个空气质量监测点2009年11月SO2监测浓度,通过聚类分析对珠三角SO2进行污染特征区划,最终选定该时段内3个核心关注区域,分别为广州中心城区、佛山江门片区、珠江口西侧片区。发现佛山江门片区的污染最为严重,其次是珠江口西侧片区。根据一定标准,选定11月23-27日为典型污染过程,11-16日为典型清洁时段。利用MM5-CALPUFF模式对这3个区域,在典型污染过程与清洁时段内的SO2平均浓度进行来源分析,发现在选定的模拟时段内,广州中心城区在污染过程中以本地污染为主(贡献率达62.47%),清洁时段则广州本地污染(49.43%)与东莞输送污染(40.27%)并重;佛山江门片区在污染过程和清洁时段均以外地输送污染(分别为65.06%和68.92%)为主,主要输入源地是广州和东莞;珠江口西侧片区在污染过程和清洁时段均是输送污染与本地污染并重(污染过程输送污染44.10%,本地污染51.83%;清洁时段输送污染50.25%,本地污染41.11%),其中污染过程中,输送污染的主要输入源地是深圳与东莞,清洁时段输送污染比重略大于本地污染,主要输入源地只有东莞。研究结果为控制及治理珠三角SO2源提供科学依据。     

液氨泄漏事故的定量风险评价研究

本文运用挪威船级社(DNV)的风险评估软件SAFETI对液氨储罐发生连续性泄漏事故进行了模拟,同时对事故模拟过程中各种参数的选择进行了较详细的说明,并针对液氨泄漏事故建立了相应的风险评价模型,对液氨泄漏的毒性危害后果及风险进行了定量分析和评价,计算了液氨泄漏事故的扩散距离及影响范围,提出了人员疏散和安全撤离方式的建议,以为该事故的应急救援工作提供技术指导和理论依据。     

化工园区定量风险评估方法及其应用

分析了我国化工园区风险特点,介绍了区域定量风险评估方法,以某化工园区为例进行了定量风险评估,通过分析计算,给出了该区域的风险评估结果,项目符合标准的要求,提出了风险控制措施,有助于化工园区装置合理布置和科学规划.     

Review on Quantitative Research Methods of Regional Sustainable Development in China

Abstract

Since the 1990s, with the in-depth study and understanding of sustainable development, quantitative study of regional sustainable development (RSD) was increasingly hot in China. Based on quantitative study of RSD from Core Periodical in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (1992–2008), statistical analysis on the annual distribution, periodicals distribution and changes of the distribution were made. And from perspectives of social–economic, ecological, systematic and emerging methods, the course, problems and trends of the quantitative study methods on RSD were examined and analyzed to get a clear summary. By the review, the context on the quantitative study of RSD was to be clarified. The study also showed that, primarily, fields involving quantitative study are expanding; second, big progresses and constant development have been made on the systematic method gradually sophisticated, the flourishing ecological method and emerging new methods in the context of cross and integration which has made complex integrated systems a more satisfactory solution; third, the method system has been more multi-angled, and the clues of independent innovation have been observed despite the fact that the introduction of imported method is the main trend. Although many problems exist, multi-scale study, dynamic timeseries study and inter-regional comparative study will be further exploited and increasingly carried out with the progress of spatial information technology, which would boost the development and application of new methods in RSD study.     

Evaluation of Gauge‐Radar Merging Methods Using a Semi‐Distributed Hydrological Model in the Upper Thames River Basin,Canada

Gauge‐radar merging methods combine rainfall estimates from rain gauges and radar to capitalize on the strengths of the individual instruments. The performance of four well‐known gauge‐radar merging methods, including mean field bias correction, Brandes spatial adjustment, local bias correction using kriging, and conditional merging, are examined using Environment Canada radar and the Upper Thames River Basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada, as a case study. The analysis assesses the effect of gauge‐radar merging methods on: (1) the accuracy of predicted rainfall accumulations; and (2) the accuracy of predicted streamflows using a semi‐distributed hydrological model. In addition, several influencing factors (i.e., gauge density, storm type, basin type, proximity to the radar tower, and time‐step of adjustment) are analyzed to determine their effect on the performance of the rainfall estimation techniques. Confirming results of previous studies, the merging methods provide an increase in the accuracy of both rainfall accumulation estimations and predicted streamflows. The results also indicate specific factors such as gauge density, rainfall intensity, and time‐step of adjustment can reduce the accuracy of merging methods and play a key role in the examination of its use for operational purposes. Results provide guidance for hydrologists and engineers assessing how best to apply corrected radar products to improve rainfall estimation and hydrological modeling accuracy.     

镧系配合物检测流域水环境阴离子的可视化研究

水环境中阴离子的快速便捷检测对评估流域水环境污染、提出相关流域治理对策具有重要意义.提出一种以镧系金属离子Eu3+作为配位金属离子,采用水热法与2,6-吡啶二羧酸合成镧系配合物,对水环境中9种常见阴离子进行定性和定量分析的方法.结果表明,制备的配合物吡啶二羧酸铕[Eu(DPA)3]在水中具有良好分散性,280 nm激发...     

双酚A类似物雌激素干扰效应的定量结构-活性关系模型

由于双酚A(BPA)具有内分泌干扰等毒性效应,有些国家已经开始限制其在部分工业品生产中使用。一些双酚A类似物因用于替代BPA而被大量使用。因其与双酚A具有相似的分子结构,双酚A类似物是否也具有内分泌干扰等毒性效应受到越来越多的关注。采用逐步多元线性回归(MLR)方法,构建了可预测双酚A类似物雌激素效应的定量结构-活性关系模型。模型的决定系数R~2=0.899,去一法交叉验证系数Q_(LOO)~2=0.868,Bootstrapping验证系数Q_(BOOT)~2=0.755,均方根误差RMSE=0.339,表明模型具有较好的拟合优度、稳健性;验证集决定系数Q_(EXT)~2=0.921,外部验证系数Q_(EXT)~2=0.810,均方根误差RMSE=0.638,表明模型具有较好的预测能力。采用欧几里德距离方法和Wil iams图表征了模型应用域,依据分子描述符对模型进行了机理解释,并用所建模型,填补了22种其他双酚A类似物缺失的雌激素干扰效应数据。