Pinning down vulnerability: from narratives to numbers

Social vulnerability analyses have typically relied upon narratives to capture the nuances of the concept. While narratives have enhanced our understanding of the multiple drivers of vulnerability, they have had limited influence on hazards and climate adaptation policy. This is partially a function of the different needs and goals of the policy and research communities. The former prioritises generalised quantitative information, while the latter is more concerned with capturing complexity. A theoretically driven and empirically tested quantitative vulnerability and capacities index (VCI) for use at the local scale is presented to help connect vulnerability research and policy. There are four versions of the index for use in rural and urban contexts at the household and community levels. There can be an infinite number of drivers of vulnerability, but the VCI draws upon 12 indicators to represent material, institutional and attitudinal aspects of differential vulnerability and capacities.     

Evaluating Alternative Strategies for Minimizing Unintended Fitness Consequences of Cultured Individuals on Wild Populations

Artificial propagation strategies often incur selection in captivity that leads to traits that are maladaptive in the wild. For propagation programs focused on production rather than demographic contribution to wild populations, effects on wild populations can occur through unintentional escapement or the need to release individuals into natural environments for part of their life cycle. In this case, 2 alternative management strategies might reduce unintended fitness consequences on natural populations: (1) reduce selection in captivity as much as possible to reduce fitness load (keep them similar), or (2) breed a separate population to reduce captive‐wild interactions as much as possible (make them different). We quantitatively evaluate these 2 strategies with a coupled demographic–genetic model based on Pacific salmon hatcheries that incorporates a variety of relevant processes and dynamics: selection in the hatchery relative to the wild, assortative mating based on the trait under selection, and different life cycle arrangements in terms of hatchery release, density dependence, natural selection, and reproduction. Model results indicate that, if natural selection only occurs between reproduction and captive release, the similar strategy performs better. However, if natural selection occurs between captive release and reproduction, the different and similar strategies present viable alternatives to reducing unintended fitness consequences because of the greater opportunity to purge maladaptive individuals. In this case, the appropriate approach depends on the feasibility of each strategy and the demographic goal (e.g., increasing natural abundance, or ensuring that a high proportion of natural spawners are naturally produced). In addition, the fitness effects of hatchery release are much greater if hatchery release occurs before (vs. after) density‐dependent interactions. Given the logistical challenges to achieving both the similar and different strategies, evaluation of not just the preferred strategy but also the consequences of failing to achieve the desired target is critical. Evaluación de Estrategias Alternativas para Minimizar las Consecuencias No Inesperadas en la Adecuación de Individuos Criados en Cautiverio sobre Poblaciones Silvestres     

Disturbance-Response Analysis: a Method for Rapid Assessment of the Threat to Species in Disturbed Areas

Abstract:  We developed a method with which to analyze a specie's response to chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD). We regressed density of individuals on the intensity of 3 disturbance agents (human activities, raising livestock, and land degradation) along CAD gradients to determine how much CAD is experienced by a species; whether species are ruderal (achieving maximum densities in disturbed sites); whether density declines as a result of CAD; which disturbance agents are responsible for this reduction; and the number of populations that decline as a result of CAD. We tested the method on 9 threatened Mammillaria species (Cactaceae). Seven species were ruderal. In 4 species, actual disturbance surpassed the CAD intensity in which plants achieved their maximum densities; thus, the density of those 4 species appeared to be declining. For 7 species, some populations were threatened by human activities or livestock, whereas others were favored by them. Land degradation negatively affected all species. Our results allowed us to distinguish 4 groups of species that had similar responses and thus may require different forms of management. Our method provided an estimation of the growth rate (λ) of the studied populations that was significantly correlated with λs obtained from demographic studies. The size structures of populations were consistent with the predictions of the analysis, which suggests our results are consistent and reliable. Disturbance–response analysis provides a basis for management in heavily populated areas, where conservation must be achieved along with development activities that cause CAD. The method provides readily interpretable information, which facilitates participative decision making; the data are rapidly generated, which makes it appropriate when results are required promptly or for assessment of large numbers of species; and it provides a comprehensive perception of how threatened species behave in the real world.     

公共场所人群聚集个人风险的研究

公共场所人群聚集的风险影响因素众多,其随机性和不确定性强,对风险进行定量比较困难.在前人研究的基础上,对事故进行分类,并根据事故发生概率和与其相应的概率分布,通过数学推导和参数补偿,提出了个人风险定量计算模型.最后以公共场所的部分事故统计资料为参考数据,阐述了该模型的使用方法和步骤,同时指出使用该模型过程中应该注意的问题.结果表明,该模型具有一定的合理性和准确性,对公共场所人群聚集安全具有一定的指导意义.根据模型的计算结果,建议一般公共场所个人风险的推荐值为4.50×10-7.     

上海市中心城区公园绿地对居住区的社会服务功能定量分析

城市公园绿地的社会服务功能是城市绿地系统生态服务功能的重要组成;评价其社会服务功能需同时考虑服务的公平性和有效性。为科学合理的定量分析城市公园绿地的部分社会服务功能,建立了一套评价体系,包括公园绿地服务范围覆盖率、公园绿地服务重叠度和单位面积公园绿地服务人口数等3项指标。以上海市中心城区为例,介绍了3项指标的定义;基于地理信息系统平台实现了计算流程,并对上海市中心城区主要公园绿地对于居住区的社会服务功能进行了定量分析。研究表明：2009年上海市中心城区的主要公园绿地对于居住区的服务范围覆盖率已超过80%,服务重叠度平均值为221,单位面积公园绿地服务人口数的平均值为117人/m2。3项指标可为城市公园绿地的社会服务功能分析提供有效的定量研究手段     

毛细管气相色谱法快速测定化妆品中4种对羟基苯甲酸酯防腐剂

用乙醇萃取了化妆品中的4种防腐剂(对羟基苯甲酸甲酯、对羟基苯甲酸乙酯、对羟基苯甲酸丙酯、对羟基苯甲酸丁酯),用毛细管气相色谱法实现了快速分离测定,并用色谱-气相质谱联用技术进行了峰鉴定。分析时间为4min,方法回收率为90 8%～104 6%,检出限为0 5mg/L,线性范围为2～80mg/L,线性相关系数>0 999。     

气态加氢站定量风险评估研究

从加氢站的事故场景、事故频率、事故后果、死亡概率和个人及社会风险5个方面进行研究,提出气态加氢站定量风险分析模型,并结合某加氢站进行了实例计算分析,计算出该加氢站量化的个人风险和社会风险,经与国内外认可的可接受风险标准比较后,得出其风险水平是否可接受的分析结论。     

基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价研究

多米诺效应是引发化工重大事故的主要原因之一.本文综合国内外的研究成果,对火灾热辐射、冲击波超压等造成的多米诺效应进行了深入分析,建立基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价模型,其中包括了评价流程、传播概率、阈值距离计算、多米诺效应对事故频率的影响及后果分析的内容.最后利用Matlab7.1计算平台,以汽油储罐进行实例分析,结果表明该方法是一种适用于多米诺效应定量评价的良好方法,能够比较科学、有效的对危险单元进行风险评价,使重大事故风险评价更切合实际,为政府监管部门和化工企业进行事故的控制和预防提供决策技术.     

乌鲁木齐市城市环境综合整治定量考核初步研究

城市环境综合整治定量考核是中国为保护和改善城市环境质量而实行的一种行政性管理制度。该项制度目前采用20项指标,综合衡量一个城市的环境质量等级,并进行城市间的相互比较。乌鲁木齐市自1989年参加城考以来,成绩一直不理想,特别是环境空气质量得分不理想。本文采用通常方案和减排方案对2008年城考结果进行预测。结果表明,只有采取减排方案,才能改变乌鲁木齐市在全国城考中排名落后的状况。