天津市地表水中新型优先污染物筛选与管控对策

新型污染物在地表水中频繁检出,威胁区域水生生态系统及人体健康.因其种类复杂且风险、毒性差异较大,目前基于新型污染物污染特性综合评估,进而确定新型优先污染物的相关研究仍不完善.以41种新型污染物为研究对象,采用污染物环境暴露水平、持久性、生物累积性、生态风险和健康风险这5个指标,建立以保护水生生物和人体健康为目标的综合评分方法,筛选识别天津市地表水环境中新型污染物,划分优先等级,构建优控清单,评价清单中污染物水环境生态风险和人体健康风险.结果表明,41种新型污染物在研究区域内均有检出,磺胺类抗生素（SAs）和其他类药物（others）浓度平均值最大,分别为200.04 ng·L^-1和176.30 ng·L^-1;其次是全氟化合物（PFASs,57.98 ng·L^-1）.以污染物类别计,高优先级以PFASs （占比50%）为主;中级优先级仍以PFASs （占比26.32%）为主,比重有所下降;低优先级以SAs （占比31.25%）为主.高优先级污染物全氟辛基磺酸（PFOS）、全氟辛酸（PFOA）、卡马西平（CBZ）、咖啡因（CAF）、全氟己基磺酸（PFHxA）和克拉霉素（CLA）列为优控清单;与其它污染物相比,PFOS和PFOA的持久性、生物累积性和健康风险得分较高,CBZ和CAF的生态风险得分较高.CAF的风险商（RQ）平均值为4.8,具有相对较高的生态风险.健康风险表明,PFOA （风险商平均值HQ为0.018）累积效应带来的潜在风险不可忽视.针对优控清单,CAF在污水处理厂的处理率高,应加强管网和高植被盖度的河岸带建设,减轻未处理污水排放和降雨径流对地表水的影响;处理率较低的污染物应运用多技术组合工艺提高对其去除效率;此外,应加快行业替代工作,减少全氟类化合物（PFOS、PFOA和PFHxA）的排放.     

质子交换膜燃料电池电站多米诺事故概率和风险研究*

为探究氢能电站火灾爆炸事故发展规律,采用多米诺效应对电站进行事故概率和风险研究,建立氢能电站多米诺效应定量风险分析模型。基于设备受损概率模型与多米诺理论基础,提出氢能电站多米诺效应概率计算方法,并将方法运用到实际案例,结合SAFETI软件对具体多米诺事故场景进行定量计算。研究结果表明:氢能电站易发生多米诺事故,考虑一级多米诺效应后人员潜在死亡概率增加56%。研究结果可为制定氢能电站安全防控措施以及降低火灾爆炸事故对人员和设备的危害提供依据。     

基于风险矩阵的灾害演化网络定量分析方法

针对使用度值定性分析灾害演化网络的局限性问题,为了使灾害演化风险分析结果更准确,提出了一种将灾害演化网络与风险矩阵有机结合的分析方法.在分析灾害演化网络结构特征和风险组成的理论基础上,考虑节点自身风险水平和灾害演化系统的综合风险水平,基于可能性和后果严重程度两大因素引入风险矩阵法,对灾害节点风险水平进行量化分级,并通过...     

化工园区安全容量辨析

为保障公众和园区的安全,避免化工园区的无序发展,有关研究者借鉴环境容量提出化工园区安全容量的概念。近些年有关政府部门已将确定安全容量作为保证化工园区安全的一项重要安全措施,并成为相关法规要求。但是有关化工园区安全容量的具体含义目前仍很模糊。对国内关于安全容量的文献进行了梳理,总结了三类对安全容量的看法,剖析了对安全容量认识的误区,比较了安全容量与环境容量的异同,分析指出采用危险品数量作为安全容量的指标存在的问题,提出化工园区安全容量的实质内涵是化工园区的风险标准,并对影响化工园区风险的三类因素进行讨论。     

Research on interest allocation in resource industry chain: taking resources exploitation in China as an example

In this paper, interest allocation in the resource industry chain is studied taking resources exploitation in China as an example. First, qualitative analysis is used to conclude stakeholders and their relationship in mineral resource exploitation. In the following section, using the tool of price constitution and comparison method, the research on interest allocation along the industry chain shows that midstream and downstream companies have advantages. The next section studies interest allocation among resource owners, exploitation companies and local governments. Through contrastive analysis of the financial report of petroleum companies, this paper quantitatively measures the scale of revenue shifting from resource owners, the central and local governments to exploitation companies. This contorted interest allocation is an important factor resulting in exploitation confusion and the large revenue gap.     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems, e.g. the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation, whereas in the Tibetan Plateau, the vegetation productivity increased, owing to the improved thermal resource. Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff. The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change, e.g. the shorter heating period in winter. Climate change profoundly influenced human health, pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events, including frequency and magnitude, and causing more serious water shortage. Under the background of climate change, although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period, more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity. Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources, but also climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon tax, tariff and trading, had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system. Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences. The impact had its pros and cons, while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change, we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change. First, scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change, which is characterized with “Overall best, long-term benefit.” Second, quantitative adaptation should be given more attention, e.g. proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures. Third, more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China’s future comprehensive competitiveness. The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure, intensifying the research and development (R&D) of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax, tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.     

LPG港口的定量风险分析

为更科学合理地对低温LPG港口、码头进行安全风险分析,对工程实例采用定量风险评估(QRA)、事故后果模拟方法,研究了低温LPG码头的风险,给出了低温LPG码头个人风险曲线。对比了低温LPG码头和常温LPG码头的事故后果影响范围。结果显示,码头低温LPG泄漏后的危害距离是常温LPG泄漏后危害距离的2.7倍以上,低温LPG码头的安全风险高于常温LPG码头的安全风险;低温LPG码头泄漏事故可能影响到邻近码头的安全。提出了降低风险的关键安全对策措施,可有效降低风险约1个数量级。定量风险分析工作是JTS 158—2019《油气化工码头设计防火规范》等标准规范的有益补充,可为LPG码头选址、总平面布置、工艺安全、泄漏事故应急预案提供参考。     

酚类化合物对小白鼠脾脏细胞DNA毒性的构效相关研究

应用彗星实验技术,测定了12种酚类化合物对小白鼠脾脏细胞DNA的损伤水平.应用Hansch法和量子化学MOPAC-PM3方法计算了12种酚类化合物的辛醇-水分配系数、分子折射率、分子最高占据轨道能和分子中最正原子电荷.运用SPSS统计软件进行回归分析,对小白鼠脾脏细胞DNA的损伤率进行了定量结构-活性相关研究(QSAR).结果表明,酚类化合物的亲脂性参数和分子折射率能有效地表征它们所引起的DNA的损伤程度.由化合物的电性效应引起的细胞毒性可忽略.     

实时定量RT-PCR方法评价壬基酚的雌激素效应

壬基酚是1种环境雌激素物质,以血清卵黄蛋白原作为生物标记物检测壬基酚的最低雌激素效应浓度高于10μg/L.利用亚成体青鱼进行不同浓度的(1、10、50、100μg/L)壬基酚暴露实验,运用实时定量RT-PCR方法,从分子水平上,对青鱼VTG-Ⅰ、VTG-Ⅱ、CHG-H和CHG-L的基因表达进行了研究,并对低浓度壬基酚的环境雌激素效应进行了分析.结果表明:1μg/L浓度的壬基酚暴露组青鱼肝脏的VTG-Ⅰ、VTG-Ⅱ、CHG-H、CHG-L基因表达均被显著诱导,说明实时定量RT-PCR能够检测1μg/L壬基酚     

LNG加气站槽车卸车直供过程泄漏后果分析

为研究LNG加气站槽车直接供液过程泄漏后果严重程度,采用HAZOP辨识槽车供液和储罐供液典型泄漏场景,基于PHAST分析不同泄漏场景下LNG液池半径、蒸汽云扩散距离及积聚时长、爆炸超压和池火热辐射影响范围,定量评价槽车供液可能造成的事故后果扩大程度.结果表明:槽车供液泄漏事故的LNG液池最大半径、蒸汽云最大扩散距离、爆...