自由飞行下基于航空器定位误差修正的碰撞风险研究

自由飞行能够提高空域容量从而缓解空域拥挤问题,在保障自由飞行安全性的基础上尽可能减小飞机的安全间距,需要研究自由飞行条件下飞机的安全评估问题。分析了所需CNS性能、防撞系统、风的因素等自由飞行下航空器定位误差的影响因素,考虑到航空器定位误差在短时间内具有累积性,提出采用INS、GPS数据融合算法对定位误差进行周期性修正。给出修正后的航空器定位误差分布在时间上的变化规律,并将其运用到自由飞行下碰撞风险评估中。结果表明,碰撞风险随安全间距增加呈下降趋势,以1.5×10-8次/飞行小时的目标安全水平为例,对航空器定位误差修正的最小安全间距为8 600 m,不对航空器定位误差进行修正的最小安全间距为9 100 m。     

纳米乳化油缓解多孔介质渗透性损失的实验研究

为有效缓解乳化油在原位修复地下水污染过程中所产生的堵塞及修复效率降低的问题,采用升温相转变技术手段,制备纳米乳化油.并采用一维柱实验,开展微米及纳米乳化油在多孔介质中的迁移研究,对比分析微米及纳米乳化油造成多孔介质的渗透性损失、在多孔介质中的截留比率及迁移距离等问题,探究纳米乳化油缓解多孔介质渗透性损失的效果.实验结果显示,微米及纳米乳化油所导致的中砂介质渗透性损失分别为20.40%和3.20%,乳化油截留比率分别为28.51%和20.15%.由此可见,乳化油截留是多孔介质渗透性损失的重要原因,减小乳化油粒径可有效缓解多孔介质的渗透性损失.与微米乳化油相比,纳米乳化油有效降低中、细砂介质渗透性损失84.3%和47.5%.此外,乳化油截留对多孔介质渗透性损失的影响在一定程度上也影响到其在多孔介质中的迁移距离,微米及纳米乳化油在中砂介质中的迁移距离分别为6.53 m和8.19 m.相比之下,纳米乳化油所导致的细砂介质渗透性损失为10.70%,截留比率为25.71%,迁移距离为7.36 m,说明纳米乳化油迁移效果更佳,可适用介质范围更广.     

基于高斯模型的液氨储罐泄漏扩散仿真分析

为研究氨气泄漏的扩散距离与风速的关系,有效控制和降低事故的后果,以渭南某化工企业液氨储罐为研究对象,对液氨储罐泄漏的扩散规律进行数值仿真分析。首先运用MATLAB仿真模拟软件,采用高斯羽流模型,研究液氨储罐的泄漏扩散的影响因素,确定液氨扩散中毒危险区域。然后运用SPSS软件,采用曲线估计的方法,拟合泄漏扩散造成的下风向以及横风向距离与风速的关系。研究结果表明:液氨储罐泄漏达到连续稳定状态时,同一储罐泄露速率与泄漏孔径相关,孔径越小泄露速率越小,导致危险区域面积越小;大气稳定度越差时,所造成的危险区域面积更大;空气流动速度增加导致大气趋向稳定,能有效减小泄漏源造成的危险区域面积;获得了液氨储罐在白天(夜间)泄漏孔径为50 mm(25 mm)时,任何风速下人员中毒轻伤、重伤以及死亡的范围。     

醇酚类化合物毒性的QSAR研究

化合物毒性与描述符通常呈现为非线性关系,量子化学计算的化合物分子描述符中包含诸多无关特征与冗余特征.最大相关最小冗余(m RMR)是应用较广泛的特征选择方法,但当前的m RMR对连续型因变量不适用,且存在相关性测度与冗余性测度不可比的缺陷.定量构效关系(QSAR)研究中因变量(毒性)与自变量(描述符)多为连续型变量,本文以非线性的距离相关系数(d Cor)取代线性的Pearson相关系数(R),在非线性条件下实现了相关性测度与冗余性测度可比,由此提出了新的特征选择方法 m RMR-d Cor.3个醇酚类化合物毒性QSAR数据集的分析表明,基于m RMR-d Cor选择特征的支持向量回归(SVR)模型独立预测Q2分别为0.954、0.941、0.981,明显优于参比模型与文献报道,m RMR-d Cor选择的多数保留分子描述符得到文献报道支持.m RMR-d Cor在化合物QSAR、定量构质关系等研究中有广泛应用前景.     

Evaluation of Local Ecological Knowledge as a Method for Collecting Extensive Data on Animal Abundance

Abstract:  The use of local ecological knowledge (LEK) has been advocated for biodiversity monitoring and management. To date, however, it has been underused in studying wild populations of animals and, particularly, in obtaining quantitative abundance estimates. We evaluated LEK as a tool for collecting extensive data on local animal abundance and population trends. We interviewed shepherds in southeastern Spain, asking them to estimate the local abundance of the terrestrial tortoise Testudo graeca . We quantified reliability of abundance estimates derived from interviews by comparing them with those obtained from standard field-sampling protocols (distance sampling). We also explored the complementarity of these 2 approaches. LEK provided high-quality and low-cost information about both distribution and abundance of T. graeca . Interviews with shepherds yielded abundance estimates in a much wider range than linear transects, which only detected the species in the upper two-thirds of its abundance range. Abundance estimates from both methodologies showed a close relationship. Analysis of confidence intervals indicated local knowledge could be used to estimate mean local abundances and to detect mean population trends. A cost analysis determined that the information derived from LEK was 100 times cheaper than that obtained through linear-transect surveys. Our results should further the use of LEK as a standard tool for sampling the quantitative abundance of a great variety of taxa, particularly when population densities are low and traditional sampling methods are expensive or difficult to implement.     

Effects of Customary Marine Closures on Fish Behavior,Spear‐Fishing Success,and Underwater Visual Surveys

Abstract: Customary management systems (i.e., management systems that limit the use of marine resources), such as rotational fisheries closures, can limit harvest of resources. Nevertheless, the explicit goals of customary management are often to influence fish behavior (in particular flight distance, i.e., distance at which an organism begins to flee an approaching threat), rather than fish abundance. We explored whether the flight distance of reef fishes targeted by local artisanal fishers differed between a customary closure and fished reefs. We also examined whether flight distance of these species affected fishing success and accuracy of underwater visual census (UVC) between customary closed areas and areas open to fishing. Several species demonstrated significant differences in flight distance between areas, indicating that fishing activity may increase flight distance. These relatively long flight distances mean that in fished areas most target species may stay out of the range of spear fishers. In addition, mean flight distances for all species both inside and outside the customary‐closure area were substantially smaller than the observation distance of an observer conducting a belt‐transect UVC (mean [SE]= 8.8 m [0.48]). For targeted species that showed little ability to evade spear fishers, customary closures may be a vital management technique. Our results show that customary closures can have a substantial, positive effect on resource availability and that conventional UVC techniques may be insensitive to changes in flight behavior of fishes associated with fishing. We argue that short, periodic openings of customary closures may allow the health of the fish community to be maintained and local fishers to effectively harvest fishes.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

LNG船舶锚泊安全距离定量计算建模

为保障液化天然气船舶(LNG船舶)锚泊安全,提出了一种基于船舶漂移运动和船舶碰撞风险的锚泊安全距离计算方法.首先,结合船舶运动数学模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟LNG船舶走锚漂移运动,得出走锚漂移方向概率密度函数,从而确定船舶走锚漂移横向、纵向距离;同时,结合船舶碰撞概率模型、船舶碰撞损害模型和LNG火灾模型,建立LNG船舶碰撞风险模型,确定满足碰撞概率和风险可接受的安全距离.最后,比较两种模型计算结果,并取其较大值作为LNG船舶锚泊安全距离.结果表明,LNG船锚泊安全距离不仅与环境水域的风、流情况有关,还与附近水域内船舶大小及速度有关.建议交通管理中需结合水域环境特征和水域船舶特点确定LNG船舶的锚泊安全距离.     

基于识别视距的特殊互通式立交出口区域主线线形指标分析

以特殊互通式立交出口区域主线为研究对象,分析了特殊互通式立交出口交通事故特征,运用汽车制动特性、人机工程学及交通心理学原理获取驾驶员在特殊互通式立交出口处的识别视距,且识别视距均比设计规范值高.以特殊互通式立交出口识别视距为基础,运用几何学及高速公路几何线形原理建立识别视距与立交区域主线圆曲线半径关系模型,运用VB程序开发软件,提出特殊互通式立交出口处满足识别视距不同车道数主线圆曲线半径一般值和最小值.结果表明:对待建高速公路互通式立交出口位置所在主线线形应分析识别视距,并应利用识别视距对主线线形指标验算;对已建成特殊互通式立交出口,应加强其安全保障措施,保证主线及驶离主线车辆行车安全.     

甲烷煤尘耦合爆炸传播特性及伤害研究

为探究煤尘质量浓度对甲烷煤尘耦合爆炸传播特性及伤害距离的影响,自制长15 m的爆炸管道系统,用体积分数为7％甲烷分别与质量浓度为0、50、100和200 g/m3的煤尘进行耦合爆炸试验,并根据质量、动量和能量守恒理论推导出最大压力计算公式.结果 表明:不同质量浓度煤尘与甲烷耦合爆炸时,最大压力均随与爆源距离的增加呈现出...