Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

再生资源产业发展的国际经验与我国的对策选择

20世纪80年代以来,再生资源产业被许多国家作为战略性产业而得到迅速发展。近年来,我国再生资源产业发展较快,但与发达国家相比还存在较大差距,总结和借鉴发达国家的经验,并提出推进加快产业发展的对策具有重要的现实意义。     

北京城市生态系统的能值动态分析

采用能值理论与分析方法,对北京市1990~2001年间的能值结构动态进行了分析,并采用人均能值、能值密度、生态功能潜力、人口基本承载力、能值自给率、能值货币比率、环境负载率、输入能值比等重要能值指标对该时期北京市城市生态系统的能值状况作了详细分析。研究表明,北京城市生态系统正处于较高发展水平,已基本跨入发达国家水平的行列;但高强度、快速发展给本市带来了巨大的生态环境压力,未来北京的可持续能力建设已势在必行。文章也提出了北京城市生态系统可持续发展能力建设的基本方向。     

1000 MW燃煤机组电除尘深度节能技术研究及应用

电除尘设备在减少工业粉尘排放量、降低大气环境污染、保护生态环境等方面有着重要的作用,随着我国对节能减排工作的重视及环保要求的提高,保证其安全、稳定、经济、节能运行成为火电厂环保工作重点。对北仓电厂三期2×1000 MW机组电除尘电场供电方式优化、电除尘振打方式优化、电除尘闭环控制技术、电除尘高频电源技术、电除尘灰斗、瓷套蒸汽加热技术组合集成应用进行了研究,在确保除尘效率达到要求的情况下,降低运行电耗。相关的电除尘深度节能技术成果在国内同类型设备中具有一定的借鉴意义。     

1976-2005年唐山地区降水变化规律及干旱预测

利用唐山市1976-2005年各县年降水序列,分析了该市降水的空间分布规律和时间变化特点。采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,对各县分别建立了GM（1,1）模型,进行未来25年唐山市各站的干旱年预测。利用残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验对各模型分别进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对唐山市各县未来的干旱年进行预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。     

黔西北土法炼锌矿区重金属污染现状及其环境影响评价

在对黔西北土法炼锌四个矿区周围的土壤和植物(蔬菜和作物等)进行全面调查的基础上,对土壤和植物重金属(Zn、Cd、Pb、Cu和As)污染现状进行了监测与初步评价.结果表明,四个土法炼锌矿区除野马川的土壤属于中度污染外,其余全部处于严重污染状态,并且Cd是每个矿区的主要污染元素;土法炼锌矿区周围的蔬菜已全部受到严重污染,综合污染指数在10.83～40.67之间,属于重度污染,蔬菜污染主要以Cd为主,超过国家食品卫生标准54倍;矿区周围其他植物如土豆、玉米和绿肥等中的重金属亦严重超标,主要以Pb污染为主,超过国家食品卫生标准366.75倍.说明矿区土壤中种植作物的生长及食用安全已经受到重金属污染的严重影响,对居民健康构成潜在威胁.     

城市轨道交通噪声评价方法及其限值的研究

根据城市轨道交通噪声时、空分布特点及污染规律,对轨道交通噪声评价量作了分析研究,提出了列车通过时的最大声级作为城市轨道交通噪声的评价量,并根据噪声时问分布特性曲线提出了与之相对应的等效声级简易计算方法.通过对上海轨道交通3号线沿线居民区的主、客观调查,得到主观烦恼度阈值和干扰睡眠阈值,提出了适用于我国城市轨道交通的环境噪声限值(建议).     

A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade

Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water, land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption. We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better information to meat consumers.

迎难而上大力推进新疆污染减排工作

在深刻论述新疆地区近年来开展节能减排和总量控制工作情况的基础上,针对我区污染物总量控制工作所面临的形势和问题进行了认真总结,并结合我区今后经济发展要求,为确保完成“十一五”总量控制目标,认真做好“十二五”总量控制工作,提出了加强污染源监督管理、完善考核制度、推进大集团战略及提高环境准入条件等8个方面的对策和建议。     

三门火山盆地的层状矿床及其与盆地形成演化的关系

浙江三门中生代火山——沉积盆地的形成演化可分四个阶段。每一阶段均伴产有不同成因和各具特色的金属矿床,显示了陆相火山作用较为完整的成矿体系。其中层状矿床具有同生和后生的双重特征,多成因,多来源,是较典型的火山沉积——后期热液迭加改造型矿床。本文着重介绍它的主要特征及盆地的形成演化对火山成因矿床的控制。