扬沸火灾发生时间预测模型的建立与应用分析

原油储罐扬沸火灾由池火灾发展而成,是一种危害性极大的事故.准确预测扬沸事故发生的时间,是扬沸机理研究中的难题之一.现有扬沸时间计算的通用模型由于没有考虑油品的粘性作用,计算结果误差较大.把扬沸火灾简化为无内热源的非稳态传热问题,在此基础上进行传热分析,进而推导出扬沸事故时间计算模型.设定了6组不同尺寸和不同充装水平的原油储罐池火灾,利用推导模型计算出了相应的扬沸事故发生时间.将计算结果与通用模型计算结果以及实验结果进行对比:该模型的准确性由于通用模型,计算结果与实验值误差较小,较为合理.研究结果对于扬沸火灾事故下消防人员的灭火救援的安全保障具有重要意义.     

硝酸甲胺反应过程的安全性研究

用反应量热仪(RC1e)对硝酸溶液与一甲胺溶液在反应过程中的热安定性进行初步研究,分别测试不同反应温度、加料速度和初始硝酸浓度下反应的放热情况。实验结果表明:该中和过程反应迅速,在室温就能进行;与反应温度、加料速度相比,起始硝酸浓度对反应安全性影响最大,且硝酸浓度越高,反应的速度和反应的完全程度也越高。实验还表明:RC1e是研究反应过程中热安定性情况的有效工具,能通过反应过程的热量变化体现反应速率,所得结果对硝酸甲胺的工业化生产具有重要的参考价值。     

变光焊接眼护具响应时间定义分析

通过对不同标准的变光焊接眼护具响应时间定义分析，提出各标准定义及计算值的区别，以利于帮助消费者进行产品选择和企业对产品设计的改进。     

地铁自动检票闸机对人员疏散的影响分析

本文采用计算机仿真技术,建立了地铁车站的疏散模型,获得了每个时刘的人员分布状态,找到了不利于人员疏散的”瓶颈”位置。同时指出了现有地铁站台疏散时间的计算方法的不足之处。通过模拟详细分析了地铁自动检票闸机对人员疏散的影响,模拟结果显示,地铁自动检票闸机的存在,降低了人员疏散的效率,在研制疏散预案以及现场指挥时需要审慎地考虑闸机的影响。文末就此提出了一些合理建议。     

乙醇废水的超临界水氧化反应路径及动力学研究

研究了超临界水氧化法 (SCWO)处理乙醇废水过程的反应路径和动力学 .乙醇SCWO反应的最终产物为CO2 ,CO是此过程的中间产物 .以幂指数方程描述乙醇SCWO反应动力学 ,得到对于乙醇的反应级数为 1,对氧气的反应级数为 0 .求出活化能和指前因子分别为 3 5 1× 10 5J·mol-1和 7 74× 10 2 1s-1.方程计算值和实验值吻合较好 ,误差基本在 10 %以内     

基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

壳体缓释技术对带壳装药慢速烤燃反应烈度的缓解作用研究

为了研究2种典型壳体缓释技术对弹药慢速烤燃响应烈度的缓解作用,基于试验条件分别建立无缓释设计、侧壁加工应力槽和端盖加工泄压孔的带壳PBX装药慢速烤燃仿真模型,提出使用热分解反应动力学模型和燃烧反应模型模拟计算不同约束条件下带壳PBX装药从开始加热发生热分解反应到点火燃烧以及炸药与壳体耦合作用的烤燃过程的计算方法。研究结果表明：通过侧壁加工应力槽以及端盖加工泄压孔的缓释结构设计,可以有效地降低壳体破裂时炸药内部的压力及反应度,以达到缓解反应烈度的目的。     

Improved models of failure time for atmospheric tanks under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires

Fire accidents of chemical installations may cause domino effects in atmospheric tank farms, where a large amount of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Pool fire is a major form of fire accidents, and the thermal radiation from pool fire is the primary hazard of domino accidents. The coupling of multiple pool fires is a realistic and important accident phenomenon that enhances the propagation of domino accidents. However, previous research has mostly focused on the escalation of domino accidents induced by a single pool fire. To overcome the drawback, in this study, the failure of a storage tank under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires was studied in view of spatial and temporal synergistic process. The historical accident statistics indicated that the accident scenario of two-pool fires accounted for 30.6% in pool fires. The domino accident scenario involving three tanks is analyzed, and the typical layout of tanks is isosceles right triangle based on Chinese standard “GB50341-2014”. The thermal response and damage of a target tank heated by pool fires were numerically investigated. The volume of 500 m³, 3000 m³, 5000 m³ and 10000 m³ were selected. Flame temperature was obtained by FDS, and then was input onto the finite element model. The temperature field and stress field of target tanks were simulated by ABAQUS. The results showed that the temperature rise rate of the target tanks under multiple pool fires was higher than that under a single pool fire. The failure time of the tank under the coupling effect of multiple fires was lower than that under the superposition of multiple fires without the first stage. The stress and yield strength were compared to judge the failure of the target tank. The model of failure time for the tank under the coupling effect of pool fires was established. Through the verification, the deviation of this model is 4.02%, which is better than the deviation of 15.76% with Cozzani's model.     

A thermal hazard risk evaluation of emulsion polymerisation and vinyl acetate monomers in the latex manufacturing process

Latex is extensively used in industrial products. However, completing some processes at scale leads to unacceptable levels of risk that need to be quantified and mitigated. Systemic risks must be eliminated wherever possible, and safety takes priority over efficiency and quality. To assess the process risks accurately, four raw materials were examined in this study: polyvinyl acetate (PVA), latex process-initiator-ammonium persulfate (APS) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). The physicochemical composition of the PVA latex process was determined via calorimeters, including differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2). The calorimetry results showed that the protective colloid was a critical component in the polymerisation reaction. In addition, when adding initiators to the system, it is vital to observe the normal ratio of materials and keep the stirring system operating. The scenario system also simulated the effects of shutting down various inhibitory programs, including the build-up of free radicals that could result in a runaway reaction when the initiator was added in excess. On the other hand, the result of the risk matrix displayed as a medium level, indicating that although the probability of an accident is low, the resulting severity is at disaster level. As a result, this study provides process safety engineers with a reliable frame of reference for assessing the potential dangers in the PVA latex manufacturing process.     

Archaeological Evidence of Validity of Fish Populations on Unexploited Reefs as Proxy Targets for Modern Populations

Reef‐fish management and conservation is hindered by a lack of information on fish populations prior to large‐scale contemporary human impacts. As a result, relatively pristine sites are often used as conservation baselines for populations near sites affected by humans. This space‐for‐time approach can only be validated by sampling assemblages through time. We used archaeological remains to evaluate whether the remote, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) might provide a reasonable proxy for a lightly exploited baseline in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We used molecular and morphological techniques to describe the taxonomic and size composition of the scarine parrotfish catches present in 2 archaeological assemblages from the MHI, compared metrics of these catches with modern estimates of reproductive parameters to evaluate whether catches represented by the archaeological material were consistent with sustainable fishing, and evaluated overlap between size structures represented by the archaeological material and modern survey data from the MHI and the NWHI to assess whether a space‐for‐time substitution is reasonable. The parrotfish catches represented by archaeological remains were consistent with sustainable fishing because they were dominated by large, mature individuals whose average size remained stable from prehistoric (AD approximately 1400–1700) through historic (AD 1700–1960) periods. The ancient catches were unlike populations in the MHI today. Overlap between the size structure of ancient MHI catches and modern survey data from the NWHI or the MHI was an order of magnitude greater for the NWHI comparison, a result that supports the validity of using the NWHI parrotfish data as a proxy for the MHI before accelerated, heavy human impacts in modern times. Evidencia Arqueológica de la Validez de Poblaciones de Peces en Arrecifes Sin Explotar como Objetivos de Apoderamiento para Poblaciones Actuales