基于协调发展视角的区域发展差异研究

20世纪90年代以来，区域差异研究成为学术界和政府管理者关注的热点领域。长期以来学者们主要以单一经济指标或复合经济指标作为衡量因子，分析区域经济差异时空演变及差异背后的自然、社会、经济驱动机理。从可持续发展的角度看，区域发展不单是区域经济的发展，而应是社会、经济与资源环境三方面的协调。基于这一理解，从可持续协调发展入手，建立了区域发展综合评价指标体系，选取了表征社会进步、经济发展和资源环境支持3个方面的27个因素作为评价指标，分析了区域综合发展的测算方法，提出了综合发展指数和发展协调指数。在案例分析中运用所设计的测度方法对江苏省内县级行政单位的综合发展进行了评价和分析。     

乙醇对含水层中燃油芳香烃内在生物修复的潜在风险

内在生物修复,是在没有工程措施促进的情况下利用土著微生物降解含水层内灾害性物质的一种修复技术,在燃油烃污染管理方面具有显著的成本效益。该技术需要确定自然衰减过程,并能够继续提供有效的风险保护。针对燃油污染含水层,北美与欧洲认为内在生物修复是值得优先考虑的应用技术。然而,随着乙醇燃油的推广使用,我国在应用这样的经验时需要考虑乙醇的潜在影响。现有的文献研究表明乙醇存在能够阻止燃油主要污染物芳香烃(BTEX)的生物降解,降低水环境的pH值,并可能增强BTEX在水中的溶解性,或存在对生物的毒性,或因为乙醇降解降低介质的渗透性能。因此,需要更好地认识乙醇的潜在风险,为发展乙醇燃油污染含水层修复策略提供科学依据。     

Influence of China''s Population Mobility on the Change of Regional Disparity since 1978

In this study, an econometric model about population mobility and economic growth is used to show the unbalanced distribution of population mobility in different region was remarkably related to that of regional economic growth and the large number of movers had a significant influence on regional economic growth and developing disparity. On the basis of this study, we conclude that China's population mobility also had a significant influence on the structure and tendency of regional disparity, and the population mobility enlarged the regional disparity of the whole nation, the East, and the West since the reform, besides the Midst during 1978 to 1987. Furthermore, the population mobility accelerated the increase of regional disparity in the whole nation, the Midst, and the West, but at the same time, retarded that in the East in the period of 1996–2003.     

中国城市化发展决定因素的地区差异

城市化的发展与地方经济发展水平和劳动力迁移密切相关，中重城市化进程中的一个显著特征是区域差异非常明显，其根源是在国内经济发展水平不同的各地区，影响城市化发展的诸因素之发育程度及所起作用不同。本文运用平行数据《panal》模型，对影响中国各省、直辖市和自治区城市化发展的请因素进行了实证分析。主要结论为：①各地区之间，特别是沿海与内地之间。城市化进程的差异非常显著。②在中部地区，第二产业的发展对当地城市化水平的提高起推动作用；而在沿海地区，则由第三产业扮演着更为重要的角色。③对外开放政策对推动中国的城市化发展起了显著作用，在沿海省份表现尤为突出。由此可以推断。中、西部开放力度的加大将推动当地城市化的发展。④农村非农产业的发展在城市化进程中发挥着双重作用：在沿海和西部地区，农村非农产业对城市化起补充作用；而在中部地区，则起替代作用。     

灞卞湴鏅尯鐢熸€佽冻杩瑰垎鏋愨€斺€斾互搴愬北涓轰緥

鏍规嵁鍖哄煙鏈簳鐢熸€佽冻杩瑰拰鏃呮父鐢熸€佽冻杩圭殑璁＄畻妯″瀷,瀵瑰簮灞辩殑鐢熸€佽冻杩硅繘琛屼簡鍒嗘瀽璁＄畻,缁撴灉琛ㄦ槑(1)搴愬北鐢熸€佽冻杩归渶姹備负0.354 603 hm2,鍏朵腑鍖哄煙鏈簳鐢熸€佽冻杩逛负0.343 510 hm2,鏃呮父鐢熸€佽冻杩逛负0.011 093 hm2.(2)搴愬北鍙埄鐢ㄧ殑浜哄潎鐢熸€佹壙杞藉姏涓?.219 805 hm2,浜哄潎鐢熸€佽丹瀛楄揪O.123 543 hm2,鍏朵腑鏃呮父鐢熸€佽冻杩瑰崰鎬昏丹瀛楃殑3.13%.(3)鍦ㄩ渶姹傝冻杩圭粨鏋勪腑鍗?8.31%鐨勫寲鐭宠兘婧愬湴,澶уぇ瓒呰繃浜嗗簮灞辩殑鎵胯浇鍔涢潰绉?鑷翠娇搴愬北鐨勭敓鎬佺幆澧冧繚鎶ょ殑鍘嬪姏涓嶆柇鍔犻噸.(4)搴愬北鍗曚綅鏃呮父鐢熸€佽冻杩逛骇鍊间负33缇庡厓/hm2,鍏朵腑鍗曚綅鏃呮父娓歌銆佹梾娓镐綇瀹垮拰鏃呮父璐墿鐨勪骇鍊艰緝楂?鏃呮父浜ら€氬拰鏃呮父椁愰ギ鐨勫崟浣嶄骇鍊肩浉瀵硅緝浣?鏃呮父浜у€艰繕鏈夎緝澶х殑鍙戝睍绌洪棿.(5)鏀垮簻閮ㄩ棬鍜岀ぞ浼氬悇鐣屽繀椤绘帹杩涙洿涓虹郴缁熷寲鐨勬棤闅滅鏃呮父涓?杞彉楂樿兘鑰楃殑缁忔祹鍙戝睍閬撹矾,浠庤€岄檷浣庡崟浣嶇粡娴庢晥鐩婄殑鐢熸€佽冻杩?瀹炵幇搴愬北鐨勫彲鎸佺画鍙戝睍.     

Local Area Quotas for Industrial Emissions along Reaches of the Pearl River in Guangdong

There is an obvious departure from the regional equilibrium of developments between the upper and lower reaches of the Pearl River in Guangdong, which resulted in ＂the effects of contra-geography-grads development＂. It is mainly because the upriver mountainous areas have been deeply stuck in industrialization delay and marginalization plights, so that nearly 40 million local people have conceived a dream to get rid of ＂the vicious circle of poverty＂ by speeding up industrial development. But the problem is that such industrialization efforts on a large scale in mountainous areas are encountering the bottleneck of environmental capacity that strictly limits industrial emissions along the upper reaches of any water system. As a solution, an institutional arrangement called ＂the Local Area Quotas for Industrial Emissions along the Pearl River＂ is put forward supposed to give corresponding compensation to the rights of industrial development yielded by some areas with lower environmental capacity through the distribution and trading of IDQs.     

关于区域可持续发展的系统分析

本文从更高、更新、更综合的高度和角度,对区域社会可持续发展系统进行了单元要素分析、结构层次分析。提出了三单元要素、三结构层次、三种发展类型的设想。这种分析尽管还是初步的、定性的、不很深刻的,但是为研究可持续发展系统提供了一种新的思路。     

教育与区域经济发展差异--基于江苏和江西的实证分析

本文主要分析了教育对于区域经济发展差异的影响及作用机理。通过对江苏和江西两省的实证分析，提出并验证了教育发晨所引起的地区经济发展的差异，主要有两个方面共同作用的结果：即教育总体发展程度不同所产生的规模效应和不同教育层次发晨的侧重差异所引起的结构效应。最后。对今后区域教育发展战略的进一步完善提出了政策建议。     

船舶区域溢油风险程度甄别的人工神经网络方法

利用误差反向传播 (BP)人工神经网络 ,建立了海域船舶溢油风险程度甄别的评价模型。该模型能够反映出研究海域各区域发生船舶溢油事件的风险等级差别 ,具有一定的客观性和实用性。     

Residual risk for cytogenetic abnormalities after prenatal diagnosis by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)

Results from conventional cytogenetic studies on 21 609 amniotic fluid specimens were analyzed retrospectively to determine the residual risk for a cytogenetic abnormality if interphase FISH, capable of only detecting aneuploidy for chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y, was performed and did not reveal an abnormality. Detection rates (the probability of detecting a cytogenetic abnormality when an abnormality is present) and residual risks (the likelihood of a cytogenetic abnormality, in view of normal interphase FISH results) were calculated for the four major clinical indications for prenatal diagnosis (advanced maternal age, abnormal maternal serum screen indicating increased risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 21, abnormal maternal serum screen indicating increased risk for neural tube defects and ultrasound abnormality). Differences in detection rates were observed to depend on clinical indication and presence or absence of ultrasound abnormalities. The detection rate ranged from 18.2 to 82.6% depending on the clinical indication. The detection rates of abnormalities significant to the pregnancy being evaluated (i.e. abnormalities excluding familial balanced rearrangements and familial markers) were between 28.6 and 86.4%. The presence of ultrasound abnormalities increased the detection rate from 72.2 to 92.5% for advanced maternal age and from 78.6 to 91.3% for abnormal maternal serum screen, indicating increased risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 21. With regard to residual risk, the risk for a clinically significant abnormality decreased from 0.9–10.1%, prior to the interphase FISH assay, to a residual risk of 0.6–1.5% following a normal interphase FISH result in the 4 groups studied. Providing patients with detection rates and residual risks, most relevant to their situation (clinical indication and presence or absence of ultrasound abnormality) during counseling, could help them better understand the advantages and limitations of interphase FISH in their prenatal diagnostic evaluation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.