基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析

针对煤气化行业职业健康风险影响因素不确定及模糊的特点,建立了职业健康风险计算模型。该模型将模糊数学与贝叶斯网络相耦合,模拟事件概率,找出导致风险的主要因素。通过分析煤气化行业中存在的多种风险因素,应用问卷调查法和模糊集理论模拟了根节点的发生概率,得出职业健康风险概率的预测值;应用贝叶斯网络反向推理的功能计算根节点后验概率并排序,确定了薄弱环节。该模型不仅能解决概率缺失情况下的风险量化推算问题,定量进行职业健康风险评估,还可以实现关键因素的识别,并能有针对性地提出改进措施,为职业健康风险预防提供决策依据。     

基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法

为了对风险形式多样化的电网进行全面客观的评估,提出了一种基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法。首先,通过分析现代电网面临的风险因素,从网架结构、运行状态、能源供给3个方面重新构建了风险评估指标体系;其次,基于博弈赋权模型融合指标主观权值与客观权值,最大化消除了单一赋权法造成的权值偏差;然后,通过灰色关联投影模型计算风险指标样本在理想解上的投影,并以风险指标样本对负理想解的优属度来表征电网综合风险大小;最后,通过案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。研究所得电网综合风险评估结果具有合理性和可靠性,对电网调度规划决策的形成具有一定的指导作用。     

城市公共安全规划理论与方法的探讨

分析了进行城市公共安全规划研究的意义和理论基础,并对了城市公共安全规划的方法进行了探讨。     

Fungal laccases: from structure-activity studies to environmental applications

Laccases are multicopper oxidases mainly secreted by filamentous fungi. Producing radical forms from organic substrates, they are involved in numerous reactions leading to the degradation and polymerization of xenobiotics. Our studies have led to a better knowledge of the structural, catalytic and genetic properties of laccases and allowed to develop a strategy for their evolution through genetic engineering. Here, we show that fungal laccases, wild or engineered, may be potent tools to develop bioremediation processes of soils polluted by organic compounds, and assays to assess the ecotoxicological impact of these pollutants on soil fungi.     

What limits predator detection in blue tits (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus caeruleus</Emphasis>): posture,task or orientation?

To detect threats and reduce predation risk prey animals need to be alert. Early predator detection and rapid anti-predatory action increase the likelihood of survival. We investigated how foraging affects predator detection and time to take-off in blue tits (Parus caeruleus) by subjecting them to a simulated raptor attack. To investigate the impact of body posture we compared birds feeding head-down with birds feeding head-up, but could not find any effect of posture on either time to detection or time to take-off. To investigate the impact of orientation we compared birds having their side towards the attacking predator with birds having their back towards it. Predator detection, but not time to take-off, was delayed when the back was oriented towards the predator. We also investigated the impact of foraging task by comparing birds that were either not foraging, foraging on chopped mealworms, or foraging on whole ones. Foraging on chopped mealworms did not delay detection compared to nonforaging showing that foraging does not always restrict vigilance. However, detection was delayed more than 150% when the birds were foraging on whole, live mealworms, which apparently demanded much attention and handling skill. Time to take-off was affected by foraging task in the same way as detection was. We show that when studying foraging and vigilance one must include the difficulty of the foraging task and prey orientation.Communicated by P.A. Bednekoff     

A Reliability and Risk Analysis System for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

This paper proposes a reliability analysis system, which can be widely applied to the cases in which a reservoir is operated to meet several purposes such as flood control, energy generation, irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply, etc. The presented system has a structure of three levels.1. Decision-making.2. Tradeoff analysis.3. The third level that mainly consists of three subsystems:i – The reservoir flood risk analysis subsystem by flood control simulation.ii – The benefit promotion subsystem of reservoir operation using Stochastic Dynamic Programming. In this subsystem, the Lagrange multipliers are introduced into the objective function to take into account the water supply failures. This method guarantees that each run of the SDP will necessarily derive a non-inferior policy for reservoir operation.iii – The reservoir operation simulation subsystem to derive the performance indices associated with the reservoir operation policies. With the input and feedback between the second level and the subsystems of the third level, a great deal of efficient operation policies and the associated performance indices can be obtained. Then the tradeoff relationships between different performance indices can be derived for the decision makers. With application to Yudong Reservoir in Yunnan province of China, the presented analysis system is practically tested.     

Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.     

Bright plumage in the magpie: does it increase or reduce the risk of predation?

Conspicuous color patterns in birds may lead to increased risk of predation. Alternatively, bright birds may be aposematic or unprofitable prey, which leads to decreased predation. During four autumns, I examined whether the black-and-white plumage of (stuffed) magpies Pica pica increases or reduces the risk of attack by migrating goshawks Accipiter gentilis. Attack risk was higher for normal magpies than for cryptic, brown magpies whether the mounts were placed near one another or far apart. However, the brown magpie may have been avoided because of its novelty. For magpies and cryptic jays Garrulus glandarius exposed together, the attack risk was similar. In 2 years, magpie and jay mounts were also exposed far apart. In 1994, with an invasion of migrating jays, attack risk was much higher for jays than for magpies. In 1995, with a normal density of jays, hawks attacked the magpies more often. The results demonstrate frequency-dependent prey selection by goshawks, which would influence any predation cost of bright plumage. The attacks on normally colored magpie mounts suggest that magpies are not aposematic. Trials with photographs and human observers indicated that normal magpies were somewhat easier to detect than jays. The plumage of the magpie possibly increases the risk of predation, but may be favoured by sexual or social selection. Received: 18 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996     

广州市污水污泥堆肥在环境绿化中的应用

将广州市大坦沙污水处理厂产生的脱水生污泥与粉煤灰、稻草按质量比例4∶1.2∶1混合堆制而成的污泥堆肥,堆肥总养分含量高于农家肥中的鸡粪,无论单独施用或与化肥结合使用应用于草坪等园林绿地,均有明显效果。污泥堆肥在草坪土壤应用的肥效试验表明,污泥堆肥与化肥结合使用效果较好,能缩短草坪草出苗和成坪时间,显著提高建植初期草坪草的生物量,但每公顷施用纯污泥堆肥30t与60t比较两者草坪草生物量没有显著差异;污泥堆肥施用污染风险初步分析表明,土壤中的重金属含量、渗滤液中的NO3--N和全P含量随着污泥堆肥施用量的增加而明显提高,考虑到广东地处热带、亚热带,雨量丰富且暴雨多,土壤呈酸性的特点,在园林绿地等相对封闭的体系中施用本项目堆制的污泥堆肥,只要将年施用量控制在30t/hm2以下,是基本安全的。     

Exposure to Selected Heavy Metals Through Water Ingestion in an Area Under the Influence of Tanneries

This study evaluated the potential toxicological risk posed to human health due to the exposure to heavy metals by water ingestion in an area affected by tanneries – the Cadeia-Feitoria hydrographic basin (Brazil). River water was collected at 10 sites, every 3 months, from July 1999 to April 2000. After acid digestion, total metal concentration was determined by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Zn), flame atomic absorption (Al, Fe, Pb, Mn), or cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry (Hg). Cr(VI) was complexed with diphenyl-carbazide and detected by UV–vis spectrometry. In order to quantify the risk of exposure, the risk assessment methodology employed by the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States was applied at a screening level. The assumed scenarios included extreme exposure patterns (ingestion of untreated water, conversion of Cr(III) to Cr(VI), temporal peaks of pollution). Fe, Al, Cd, Hg, and Pb were not included in the risk analysis, since they showed a low toxicity potential or were undetected in the samples. The selected metals presented Hazard Quotients < 1, in the following order of increasing risk: Cu < Cr(III) < Zn < Ni < Mn < Cr(VI). Hazard indexes, representing the additive effect of contaminants, were also low in the basin (< 1), but comparatively increased in the lower reach of Feitoria and Cadeia Rivers. Although noncarcinogenic risk levels did not suggest possible adverse toxicological effects to the human population, a considerable deviation from background conditions was observed downstream the area where tanneries are mainly located.